Week 14: Position Analysis

Hey Football Fans!  Welcome to Week 14!

This week I’ve decided to try something a bit different. Instead of the typical Matchup Analysis, I’ve broken down this write-up by position instead of by matchup.  Let me know what you think! If you prefer last week’s style, I can certainly fall back to that.

Without futher ado…

Quarterbacks

The absolute worst thing you can do this week is go Hamilton pivot. Okay, for once that may not be true! Regardless, Hamilton scores the fewest FPTS at the QB position in the entire league. Doesn’t matter if they are going Collaros or Masoli. However, Hamilton goes up against a BC defense currently giving up the 3rd most FPTS to opposing Quarterbacks.

The second worst team at the QB position is Montreal. Durant is really struggling. The whole team is really struggling. Montreal faces a Toronto Defense 2nd best in the entire league against QBs. Stay away.

Believe it or not, the Calgary QB team scores the third fewest points at the position. The offense doesn’t have to work hard when your Defense is this good. Bo will go up against a Saskatchewan Defense 5th best in the league.

Next best would be the BC lions. But with Lulay out, can you really go with Jennings? He will face a terrible Tabby Cats Defense, surrendering the MOST FPTS to QBs. Maybe this is a value QB option for Week 14… with risk. Mr Interception.

Next up, Ricky Ray and the Toronto Argo’s. Ray would be much more valuable if Fajardo didn’t vulture the ground-based TDs. But they are the 5th highest scoring team at the QB position and should be able to feast-a-plenty against a struggling Montreal team.

Ottawa clocks in as the 4th best team at the QB position. But now we are down to a third stringer in Ryan Lindley. He didn’t look terrible in relief of Drew Tate, but it’s still a risk. Looks like it could be a juicy matchup, however, with Winnipeg surrendering the 2nd most FPTS to QBs.

With the Eskimos on the Bye, next up is the Sask Roughies. Is Glenn good to go? If he is you’ll be tempted to start him with not many other options this week. But I advise caution, as he’ll go up against a shutdown Calgary Defense, best against QBs and WRs. I really hope this one turns into a shoot-out, but that Calgary D is so scary. *Edit – Glenn has been named Starter for Week 14.

Nothing is sounding overly attractive this week. So what do we do?

We reach for Matt Nichols. His salary has climbed. But Winnipeg currently sits atop the Fantasy QB heap. He’ll go up against an Ottawa D that surrenders the 6th most – or 4th fewest, FPTS to QBs. With Ottawa fielding a third string QB, expect the Defense to be on the field a lot, giving Nichols plenty of opportunity to rack up the FPTS.

Running Backs

Let’s start on top – JJohnson in BC, scoring the most FPTS at the position. Up against the woefull Tabby Cats? Must start!

2nd best backfield belongs to Winnipeg. Start Andrew Harris, going up against an Ottawa team surrendering the 6th most FPTS to RBs. A hex upon dirty vulture Flanders!

Shooting WAY up the charts on a ridiculous, surprise performance is the Argo’s backfield. Fantasy irrelevant all season long, and then this Wilder Jr guy comes in and fucking cleans house. Who is this guy? Where did he come from? Can he keep it going? If Whittaker doesn’t return, he’ll face a pathetic Montreal Defense giving up the most FPTS to backfields. Chase those points and start this guy! Hell, get Declan Cross in your Flex too.

4th most productive backfield is led by Jarome Messam in Calgary. Going up against a middle-of-the-road Sask defense. If he’s healthy, he’s in your lineup. He has passed concussion protocol as of Tuesday. *Edit – latest report, he attended practice, but didn’t participate. Keep an eye.

Ottawa’s backfield looks to be startable this weekend as well, going up against a Winnipeg team that surrenders the 3rd most FPTS to RBs. Powell looked dominant last week and with Ryan Lindley at the helm expect plenty of usage. I really like this play for Week 14.

Kienan Lafrance still holds down the backfield for the Roughriders, and still holds down a great value salary. But against that Calgary Defense, I’ll pass.

Can Sutton be started? No. He looks like a dominant runner, but the team around him just isn’t giving him the opportunities.

And finally, CJ Gable in Hamilton, worst team at the position.  Just when you thought he was getting traction under the new coaching staff, he then disappoints once again.  BC is actually the BEST team in the league against RBs. *Edit CJ Gable is ruled out this week. So, move along.

Wide Receivers

The Roughriders receiving core continues to score the most FPTS at the position. They’ll go up against the shutdown secondary of Calgary. I advise caution, especially if Bridge gets the nod. Carter and Roosevelt and even B.Grant will get their looks, but I don’t see enough scoring to go around this week.

Edmonton Receivers score at the 2nd highest rate in the CFL. But they are on the Bye, so no, you can’t start Walker, Zylstra or Duke. Too bad.

Ottawa receivers are the 3rd most productive core in the league. But with a third string QB at the helm, you have to expect a decline in production. As long as McDuffie is still out, your safe play is Diontae Spencer, racking up the FPTS in the return game.  His salary has finally caught up with his huge play. *Edit – McDuffie will be back for Week 14, and it is confimed he will participate in the Return game. Expect Spencer’s production to decline a touch.

Calgary sits in 4th place for WR FPTS scoring, with plenty of mouths to feed. Bo really likes the Boundry slot and receiver positions. Marken Michel, Davaris Daniels ( if healthy ) are your starters. Begelton really took advantage of his time in the slot when Daniels was out last week. *Edit – Both Daniels and Kamar Jorden did not practice yesterday. Mitchel is still looking like a great pick.

Winnipeg receivers, 5th best in the league, will be fully rested when they take on a decent Ottawa defense, 3rd best against the position. Before they went to Bye we had Darvin Adams averaging only 7 FPTS in his last three, with no TD since week 9. Denmark is seeing his Red Zone targets rise, scoring four TDs in his last three games. Dressler is only averaging 6FPTS since coming back from IR. Excpect them to be on the field a lot this week.

Toronto receiving core slots in at the 6th best FPTS producers.  Montreal’s secondary is probably the only thing not in shambles, the 4th best against the position.  I expect Toronto to have a good outing. Start SJ, start Posey, start Edwards.

BC scores the 7th most FPTS at the WR position. We’ll see if their QB can take advantage of the incredible matchup. If any BC receiver is bounce out of a slump – I’m looking at you, Chris Williams!  And maybe even you, Manny! It should be in this game against the worst secondary in the league.

Are you starting any Montreal receivers? Don’t.

And do I have to say the same for Hamilton? Maybe this Andy Fantuz guy will provide some spark but let’s see it play out first.

Good luck this week, Everyone!

Week 14: Fantasy Projections

Projections are calculated using the player’s average FPTS of the current season, takes into account the strength/weakness of the matchup, plus adds/subtracts bonuses for other considerations such as – home or away, streaking performance (performance over the last 4 games only vs entire season), current team trends and injuries/support roster changes.

Please note the 2017 Fantasy Scoring system, down the left side-bar.

Week 14 Quarterback Projections:

NAME PROJ
Matt Nichols 22.14
Ricky Ray 21.23
Bo Levi Mitchell 19.62
Kevin Glenn(1) 18.83
Ryan Lindley 16.43
Jonathan Jennings 16.42
Brandon Bridge(1) 16.36
Darian Durant 13.84
Jeremiah Masoli(2) 13.62
Zach Collaros(2) 13.43

Week 14 Running Back Projections:

NAME PROJ
Jeremiah Johnson 17.05
Andrew Harris 14.30
William Powell (1) 13.99
Jerome Messam 13.22
Mossis Madu (1) 12.73
James Wilder 12.73
Kienan Lafrance 9.90
Brandon Rutley (2) 9.81
Chris Rainey 9.61
Tyrell Sutton (2) 9.56
Martese Jackson 8.82
CJ Gable 8.28
Ross Scheuerman 8.27
Roy Finch 8.26
Declan Cross 7.83
Stefan Logan 7.33
Brendan Gillanders 5.86
Timothy Flanders 5.69
Terry Williams 4.53
Greg Morris 4.47
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 4.02
JC Beaulieu 3.59
Ante Milanovic-Litre 3.28
Patrick Lavoie 3.20

Week 14 Wide Receiver Projections:

NAME PROJ
Greg Ellingson 14.80
SJ Green 13.98
Diontae Spencer 13.39
DeVier Posey 13.37
Namaan Roosevelt 12.84
Marken Michel 12.70
Darvin Adams 12.35
Bryan Burnham 12.19
Clarence Denmark 11.98
Brad Sinopoli 11.95
Armanti Edwards 11.11
Duron Carter 10.89
Jalen Saunders 10.79
Emmanuel Arceneaux 9.84
Bakari Grant 9.79
BJ Cunningham 9.53
Weston Dressler 9.40
Nick Moore 9.19
Marquay McDaniel 9.04
Brandon Banks 8.77
Demarr Aultman 8.73
Ernest Jackson 8.11
Joshua Stangby 7.98
Jasper Collins 7.77
Ryan Lankford 7.50
Reginald Begelton 7.47
Luke Tasker 7.39
Chris Williams 7.28
Tiquan Underwood 6.28
Nik Lewis 5.76
Caleb Holley 5.51
Julian Feoli Gudino 4.52
Marco Iannuzzi 4.28

Week 14: Fantasy Points FOR/AGAINST Per Position

FPTS For:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is scoring at each position.  Higher numbers are better. For example, Saskatchewan QBs are averaging 23.88 FPTS per game. Hamilton RBs are only averaging 8.86 FPTS per game.

TEAM QB RB WR
BC 19.40 20.20 29.37
CGY 19.34 15.28 37.18
EDM 23.08 12.19 39.71
SSK 23.88 12.48 41.35
WPG 24.17 17.30 34.97
HAM 14.24 8.86 27.29
TOR 19.66 17.03 29.73
OTT 20.51 14.35 37.54
MTL 15.78 11.56 29.13

 

FPTS Against:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is giving up to each position.  Lower numbers are better. For example, QBs going up against Toronto are only able to score an average of 16.09 FPTS. WRs facing Ottawa are scoring over 32 FPTS, on average per game.

TEAM QB RB WR
BC 20.97 12.62 34.78
CGY 15.61 12.79 26.18
EDM 19.32 16.29 29.58
SSK 19.97 14.14 35.02
WPG 23.54 15.39 43.41
HAM 26.13 14.32 44.25
TOR 16.09 13.46 32.70
OTT 19.47 13.82 32.21
MTL 20.92 17.73 32.69

 

Week 14: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets w/ Receptions:

NAME TAR REC
SJ Green 117 71
Brad Sinopoli 112 82
Greg Ellingson 104 72
Emmanuel Arceneaux 93 64
Luke Tasker 91 59
Darvin Adams 90 58
Namaan Roosevelt 89 62
Marquay McDaniel 89 54
Brandon Zylstra 86 66
Duron Carter 83 50
Nik Lewis 81 68
Diontae Spencer 79 51
Bryan Burnham 76 50
BJ Cunningham 74 44
Jalen Saunders 74 46
Bakari Grant 71 52
Ernest Jackson 70 43
Armanti Edwards 68 52
Duke Williams 65 38
Joshua Stangby 64 41
DaVaris Daniels 61 37
Clarence Denmark 60 42
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 59 42
Marken Michel 52 28
Jeff Fuller 51 24
DeVier Posey 48 32
Julian Feoli Gudino 48 32
Weston Dressler 47 32
Kamar Jorden (inj) 44 28
Marco Iannuzzi 44 31
Tiquan Underwood 43 26
Adarius Bowman 43 26
Tyron Thorpe 43 33
Nick Moore 42 28

WR by Receiving Yards:

NAME REC YDS
Greg Ellingson 1123
SJ Green 1010
Brandon Zylstra 982
Brad Sinopoli 919
Namaan Roosevelt 906
Bryan Burnham 813
BJ Cunningham 784
Darvin Adams 766
Emmanuel Arceneaux 722
Bakari Grant 701
Jalen Saunders 686
Marquay McDaniel 671
Duron Carter 642
Armanti Edwards 636
Duke Williams 620
Nik Lewis 611
Ernest Jackson 600
Luke Tasker 595
DaVaris Daniels 595
Marken Michel 587
Diontae Spencer 572
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 560
Bryant Mitchell 482
Joshua Stangby 478
Weston Dressler 462
Nick Moore 456
Clarence Denmark 432
Tiquan Underwood 413
DeVier Posey 410
Kamar Jorden (inj) 403
Marco Iannuzzi 384
Julian Feoli Gudino 338
Anthony Parker 314
Lemar Durant 313
Caleb Holley 305

WR by Receiving Touchdowns:

NAME REC TD
Duron Carter 8
Greg Ellingson 7
Namaan Roosevelt 7
SJ Green 6
Bakari Grant 6
Clarence Denmark 6
Darvin Adams 5
Ernest Jackson 5
Joshua Stangby 5
BJ Cunningham 4
Emmanuel Arceneaux 4
Marquay McDaniel 4
DaVaris Daniels 4
Diontae Spencer 4
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 4
DeVier Posey 4
Kamar Jorden (inj) 4
Brandon Zylstra 3
Brad Sinopoli 3
Bryan Burnham 3
Jalen Saunders 3
Armanti Edwards 3
Duke Williams 3
Marken Michel 3
Bryant Mitchell 3
Julian Feoli Gudino 3
Ryan Lankford 3
Luke Tasker 2
Weston Dressler 2
Tiquan Underwood 2
Lemar Durant 2
Caleb Holley 2
Adarius Bowman 2
Kenny Stafford 2
Brandon Banks 2

Week 14: Running Back Stats

RB by Carries:

NAME CAR
Jerome Messam 155
Andrew Harris 124
Jeremiah Johnson 113
Tyrell Sutton 94
William Powell 89
Cameron Marshall 88
LaDarius Perkins 71
Brandon Whittaker 71
Mossis Madu 71
Travon Van 60
CJ Gable 56
James Wilder 50
Brandon Rutley 35
Kienan Lafrance 35
Chris Rainey 24
Timothy Flanders 24
Ross Scheuerman 23
Roy Finch 20
Brendan Gillanders 20
John White (INJ) 20
Calvin McCarty 13
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 10

RB by Rushing Yards:

NAME RUSH YDS
Jerome Messam 770
Jeremiah Johnson 661
Andrew Harris 656
Tyrell Sutton 499
Cameron Marshall 489
William Powell 449
James Wilder 362
LaDarius Perkins 319
Brandon Whittaker 318
Mossis Madu 317
CJ Gable 309
Travon Van 236
Brandon Rutley 202
Ross Scheuerman 145
Kienan Lafrance 142
Timothy Flanders 136
Brendan Gillanders 127
John White (INJ) 112
Roy Finch 105

RB by Rushing Touchdowns:

NAME RUSH TD
Jerome Messam 9
Jeremiah Johnson 8
Andrew Harris 4
CJ Gable 3
Travon Van 3
Tyrell Sutton 2
Cameron Marshall 2
William Powell 2
Mossis Madu 2
James Wilder 1
LaDarius Perkins 1
Ross Scheuerman 1
Kienan Lafrance 1
Timothy Flanders 1
John White (INJ) 1
JC Beaulieu 1
Chris Rainey 1
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 1
Stefan Logan 1
Ante Milanovic-Litre 1

RB by Receiving Yards:

NAME REC YDS
Andrew Harris 588
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 426
Jeremiah Johnson 323
Cameron Marshall 278
Chris Rainey 274
Brandon Whittaker 220
Declan Cross 218
Mossis Madu 188
CJ Gable 186
William Powell 181
Patrick Lavoie 172
Tyrell Sutton 168
James Wilder 159
Jerome Messam 148
LaDarius Perkins 140
Calvin McCarty 112
Timothy Flanders 108
Roy Finch 108

RB by Receiving Touchdowns:

NAME REC TD
Jeremiah Johnson 3
Chris Rainey 3
Cameron Marshall 2
Declan Cross 2
Mossis Madu 2
Andrew Harris 1
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 1
William Powell 1
Patrick Lavoie 1
LaDarius Perkins 1
Timothy Flanders 1
Travon Van 1

Week 14: Quarterback Stats

QB by Passing Yards:

NAME YDS
Mike Reilly 3949
Trevor Harris 3724
Ricky Ray 3567
Bo Levi Mitchell 3491
Matt Nichols 3287
Kevin Glenn 3057
Darian Durant 2784
Jonathan Jennings 1887
Zach Collaros 1743
Travis Lulay 1693
Jeremiah Masoli 923
Brandon Bridge 434
Drew Tate 299
Drew Willy 217
Cody Fajardo 152
Andrew Buckley 127
James Franklin 108

QB by Passing TDs:

NAME TD
Trevor Harris 23
Matt Nichols 22
Kevin Glenn 21
Mike Reilly 20
Bo Levi Mitchell 18
Ricky Ray 17
Darian Durant 14
Travis Lulay 10
Zach Collaros 8
Jonathan Jennings 6
Brandon Bridge 6
Jeremiah Masoli 2
Drew Tate 2
Cody Fajardo 1
Andrew Buckley 1
James Franklin 1

QB by Interceptions:

NAME INT
Jonathan Jennings 12
Mike Reilly 11
Darian Durant 11
Kevin Glenn 10
Bo Levi Mitchell 8
Trevor Harris 7
Matt Nichols 7
Ricky Ray 7
Travis Lulay 7
Zach Collaros 7
Jeremiah Masoli 4
Brandon Bridge 1
Drew Tate 1
Ryan Lindley 1
Alex Ross 1

Week 14: Fantasy Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Mike Reilly 22.36
Matt Nichols 21.20
Kevin Glenn 20.36
Trevor Harris 18.71
Ricky Ray 17.67
Bo Levi Mitchell 16.35
Travis Lulay 15.14
Darian Durant 13.71
Zach Collaros 10.87
Jonathan Jennings 10.59
Jeremiah Masoli 6.97
Brandon Bridge 6.48
Drew Tate 5.72
James Franklin 4.36
Cody Fajardo 3.72
Drew Willy 3.60
Andrew Buckley 3.56
Dan Lefevour 3.27
Ryan Lindley 2.27
Vernon Adams Jr 2.06
Jeff Mathews 0.68
Alex Ross 0.42

RB by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Jeremiah Johnson 14.10
Andrew Harris 13.67
Travon Van 12.64
Jerome Messam 11.65
William Powell 11.57
Chris Rainey 11.24
Cameron Marshall 11.08
Roy Finch 10.66
Mossis Madu 10.36
Ross Scheuerman 9.30
Brandon Rutley 9.07
Tyrell Sutton 8.83
LaDarius Perkins 8.72
Ante Milanovic-Litre 8.60
CJ Gable 8.48
Terry Williams 7.83
Martese Jackson 7.66
John White (INJ) 6.80
Stefan Logan 6.78
Brandon Whittaker 6.73
Kendial Lawrence (INJ) 6.45
Timothy Flanders 6.33
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 5.77
James Wilder 5.61
Kienan Lafrance 4.84
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 4.70
Greg Morris 4.41
Declan Cross 3.76
JC Beaulieu 3.32
Brendan Gillanders 2.76

WR by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Derel Walker 12.35
Namaan Roosevelt 12.05
Greg Ellingson 11.87
Brandon Zylstra 11.79
Kamar Jorden (inj) 11.73
SJ Green 11.42
Diontae Spencer 11.08
Duron Carter 10.89
DeVier Posey 10.83
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 10.00
Bryan Burnham 9.93
Ryan Lankford 9.89
Bryant Mitchell 9.89
Darvin Adams 9.73
Bakari Grant 9.55
Jalen Saunders 9.49
BJ Cunningham 8.98
Marken Michel 8.96
Weston Dressler 8.74
DaVaris Daniels 8.35
Brad Sinopoli 8.30
Marquay McDaniel 8.28
Duke Williams 8.00
Emmanuel Arceneaux 7.85
Armanti Edwards 7.72
Brandon Banks 7.71
Kenny Stafford 7.70
Demarr Aultman 7.68
Ernest Jackson 7.64
Joshua Stangby 7.40
Clarence Denmark 7.26
Jasper Collins 6.83
Caleb Holley 6.75
Luke Tasker 6.50
Adarius Bowman 6.42
Lemar Durant 6.26
Tiquan Underwood 5.92
Chris Williams 5.81
Quincy McDuffie 5.75
Nick Moore 5.73