Week 15: Position Analysis

Numbers, numbers, numbers, Data, data, data, Math, math, math.

We are having fun now! In my own style of plain English, here’s what the numbers say about Week 15 fantasy positions, by team!

Quarterbacks

Once again, The Hamilton Tabbies sit at the bottom of the pile.  9th ranked, dead last. Hamilton, as a team, scores under 15 FPTS on average at the QB position. They’ll face tough opposition as Toronto only gives up the 2nd most FPTS in the league to QBs. Since Week 11, Masoli’s has a median of about 14 FPTS. His floor is somewhere around 10 and ceiling could approach 20 on a really good day.

The struggling squad from Montreal clocks in as the 8th ranked QB in the league – half a Fantasy Point better than Hamilton.  I expect this to be the year’s ugliest game, going up against a really fucking good Stampeders Defense.  You can’t start any QB against the Stamps. Durant appears to be injured as well – Backup Willy looks to be starting. Stay far away.

Surprisingly, the next best ranked QB in 7th position – the very Stampeders mentioned a second ago.  You’d think Calgary would rank higher, but they just don’t have to score much with that Defense.  Calgary is scoring an average of 18.6 FPTS per game at the QB position. Bo’s portion of that is only 15.8 FPTS, hampered by his lack of ground game.  10 point floor, 22 point ceiling. Against a terrible Montreal team, I expect him to be near his ceiling this week. Possibility for him to get pulled in a blowout in favour of backups reps.

Ranked in the 6th position we find the Toronto Argo’s led by Ricky Ray. Scoring an average of 19FPTS per game, 17 of that being Ricky’s points.  Fajardo vultures the ground game TDs.  Ricky’s last two games have not been great, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against Hamilton. He scored over 21 FPTS last time facing the ‘Cats.

Our 5th best ranking lands in Ottawa.  Trevor Harris is still out, Lindley gets the start. The team averages a bit over 18FPTS per game at the QB position when led by Harris. Lindley? We don’t need to talk about that.  They’ll face a 3rd best Roughriders Defense against.  It doesn’t look good for Ottawa this week.

4th best would be the team on Bye – BC

So straight on to the 3rd highest ranked QB team, Saskatchewan.  They are scoring almost 23 FPTS per game, going up against an Ottawa team giving up the 5th fewest. It’s a decent matchup made more attractive if you believe they’ll be running up the score as Ottawa’s offense will struggle to stay on the field. Not counting the ugly game against Calgary, Glenn himself is averaging 21.5 FPTS over his last four games.

Mike Reilly, off the Bye week, leads the 2nd best QB team in the league. The team averages over 23 FPTS at the position, with 22.3 of that belonging to Mike. Juicy matchup, going up against a Winnipeg Defense 2nd worst in the league against QBs.  If you can afford him, you’re starting him. High potential for a shootout game.

And finally the BlueBombers and Matt Nichols lead the way with an impressive 24 FPTS average per game. Edmonton is 4th best against but as mentioned, this could be a shootout, with both QBs having plenty of opportunity to drive up the score. It almost seems unbelievable, but Matt hasn’t scored fewer than 18 FPTS since week 7. He’s averaged 22 FPTS since. 28 point ceiling.

 

Running Backs

First up we have the 9th place Hamilton backfield. Alex Green posted 15.5 FPTS against BC last week, and that’s pretty much all the data I’ve got on that. Toronto is the 4th best team against backs, giving up an average of 14.4 FPPG.  A gamble that looks attractive based on Salary.

Another gamble comes in the form of the 8th place backfield in Saskatchewan. They recently signed Trent Richardson. Might be early for him to start so we still have a LaFrance vs Josh Harris conundrum.  Whoever it be, they face a decent Ottawa Defense, 3rd best in the league against backfields.

Edmonton’s injury-ridden backfield clocks in next. But there is hope, as Van has made his return to the lineup.  He had a huge first game back against Toronto, putting up 24 FPTS with 2 major scores.  Going back to before his injury he was averaging 12.5 FPPG, all double-digit games.  And a decent matchup, up against Winnipeg’s 3rd worst D against RBs.

6th best backfield is in Montreal. Sutton is a dominant, under-rated back. But behind that O-Line, getting behind in every single game, it just doesn’t play out for him.  Especially avoid this week against that Calgary Defense.

I like a Powell pick this week with Lindley at the pivot position. In two games with the backup QB, Powell has put up 14.8 and 14.7 FPTS, respectively.  The Saskatchewan defense is truly middle of the road, giving up an average of 14.5 FPPG to backfields.

Messam and the Stamps own the 4th best backfield. Start him! His volume of carries is ridiculous and going up against Montreal is such a delicious matchup. The model says Messam will be this week’s leading rusher.*edit – Messam is ruled out for Week 15. In his place will be Terry Williams. Roy Finch should get more looks.

3rd most productive backfield – The Bluebombers.  An interesting scenario with Andrew Harris leading the way, and Flanders now being moved to the slot. Flanders is still listed as an RB, however.  I want both these guys in my lineup this week, as the numbers look to increase for Flanders with Dressler out.  Edmonton has been pretty terrible against the run, surrendering an average of 16.3 FPPG to backfields, that’s 2nd worst in the league!

Do we keep rolling with Wilder Jr in Toronto? Two massive games, can he keep it up?  I hope so because its so fucking entertaining to watch!  Wilder Jr has single-handedly brought Fantasy Relevance to the T.O. backfield.  Hamilton surrenders the 4th most FPTS to RBs.

And on top is BC, but they’re on Bye so JJohnson is sadly not an option this week.

 

Wide Receivers

The first thing we are not doing in Fantasy is starting Ti-Cats or Allouettes.  That said, Luke Tasker is starting to show some value, and I’m interested to see if Andy can provide a spark.

Let’s move right on to the 7th best WR Core in the league, in Toronto.  Up against a Hamilton secondary ranked LAST in the league. We are starting SJ Green and his buddies, Armanti and DeVier.  SJ has regressed a touch, but leads the way in targets and has two TDs in his last two games.

Next up is BC in 6th, so we’ll keep moving along.

Calgary’s receiving core gives us our 5th ranked group. Daniels looks to return so we’ll see some decline for Marken Mitchell and Begelton should no longer be an option. McDaniel has been a shadow of his former self. Kamar Jorden is desperately needed to return.

The core in Ottawa ranks in at 4th, but with backup Ryan Lindley chucking the ball, we have to expect a decline in production from our favourites, Ellingson, Sinopoli.  And Diontae’s value has really plummeted with the return of McDuffie.  Sask is middle-of-the-road against Wide Receivers, surrendering 32.6 FPPG to wide-outs and slottys.

Let’s take a good look at Winnipeg, as there should be a lot of FPTS to go around this week. Darvin Adams is the first obvious choice. 25.5 FPTS in his last outing. But a trio of ugly, single-digit performances preceding. Denmark, a very streaky risk with a ton of upside (ceiling). 5 point floor, 18.5 ceiling. Lankford appears to be practicing in Dressler’s spot, but as such doesn’t have much fantasy relevance. And we’ve got Flanders now working out of the slot, and put up 14 FPTS in his first outing at that position. All up against a stout Edmonton secondary, 2nd best against receivers.

Other side of the field, Eskimos receivers, 2nd best in the league against a miserable Winnipeg secondary.  Bowman has not been the dominant force we expected, averaging only 37 receiving yards per game since his return. Duke Williams continues to be a streaky value play with a ceiling approaching 18 FPTS but a median of only 8. Zylstra is our guy. 17 FPPG in his last three, almost 12 over the entire season.  And finally Derel Walker, two games back and oddly identical stats in each game – 11 targets, 8 receptions, 93 yards and 92 yards respectively. Weird. Consistent!

And finally, best core in the league, also best dance crew in the league – Saskatchewan. Roosevelt’s status is the question here.  With him out, look for Carter, Grant and even Holley to get more looks but I project the backfield gets locked up more.  With Roosevelt in, the team spreads the ball more. Watch for Carter to bounce back after two poor outings. Previous to those he had two 17+ FPPG in a row. Roosevelt, if he plays, will be in your lineup. Look at this production in his four games previous to the Calgary game – 14.1, 17.9, 16.2, 12.6.  Those are the kind of points I want out of my fantasy team! Grant was the more productive receiver against Calgary, and managed two double-digit performances in his last four.

 

Good luck in Week 15!

 

 

Week 15: Fantasy Projections

Projections are calculated using the player’s average FPTS of the current season, takes into account the strength/weakness of the matchup, plus adds/subtracts bonuses for other considerations such as – home or away, streaking performance (performance over the last 4 games only vs entire season), current team trends and injuries/support roster changes.

Please note the 2017 Fantasy Scoring system, down the left side-bar.

*some big edits here – Latest news say Lindley gets the start in place of  Trevor Harris – my data projects Lindley at an optimistic 210 yards passing, 1TD, 1INT, give him 10 FPTS. Of course expect the decline in production from the receiving core from what’s posted below. I see a possible uptick in Powell’s ceiling and median.

It also looks like Durant may take a seat in favour of Drew Willy.  Not enough data on Willy do get a real projection so we’ll ball park something here – he won’t do good so don’t start him or his receivers. Done.

Dressler is out. Flanders sees the biggest increase in projected targets.

If Roosevelt plays, we’ll have to bring down Carter and Grant a touch, but the backfield could see more room. Devon Bailey is out. Let’s bring Caleb Holley up a tick.

Week 15 Quarterback Projections:

NAME PROJ
Mike Reilly 23.72
Matt Nichols 21.95
Bo Levi Mitchell 21.55
Kevin Glenn 21.52
Ricky Ray 20.19
Trevor Harris 19.68
Jeremiah Masoli 14.13
Darian Durant 13.09

Week 15: Running Back Projections:

NAME PROJ
Jerome Messam 17.90
Andrew Harris 16.66
James Wilder 14.96
William Powell 14.92
Travon Van 14.42
Timothy Flanders (SB) 14.21
Tyrell Sutton 11.74
Roy Finch 11.42
Alex Green 10.73
Josh Harris 9.98
Stefan Logan 9.92
Martese Jackson 9.58
Declan Cross 7.12
Greg Morris 4.52
Brendan Gillanders 4.39
JC Beaulieu 3.22

Week 15: Wide Receiver Projections:

NAME PROJ
Duron Carter 17.20
Derel Walker 16.50
SJ Green 16.06
Darvin Adams 16.01
Brandon Zylstra 15.93
Greg Ellingson 14.99
DeVier Posey 14.52
Bakari Grant 13.49
Armanti Edwards 13.40
Clarence Denmark 12.46
Devon Bailey (out) 12.12
DaVaris Daniels 11.95
Luke Tasker 11.78
Marken Michel 11.70
Adarius Bowman 11.50
Brad Sinopoli 11.47
Brandon Banks 10.50
Marquay McDaniel 10.26
Duke Williams 10.10
Diontae Spencer 9.98
Ryan Lankford 9.38
Jalen Saunders 9.24
Joshua Stangby 9.09
Demarr Aultman 8.89
Kenny Stafford 8.80
Ernest Jackson 8.79
BJ Cunningham 8.24
Bryant Mitchell 7.01
Caleb Holley 6.33
Jasper Collins 6.32
Reginald Begelton 6.21
Weston Dressler 0.00
Namaan Roosevelt 0.00

Week 15: Fantasy Points FOR/AGAINST Per Position

FPTS For:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is scoring at each position.  Higher numbers are better. For example, Saskatchewan QBs are averaging 22.72 FPTS per game. Hamilton RBs are only averaging 9.42 FPTS per game.

TEAM QB RB WR
BC 19.69 20.07 28.95
CGY 18.62 15.53 34.80
EDM 23.08 12.19 39.71
SSK 22.72 11.58 40.22
WPG 23.99 17.46 36.44
HAM 14.52 9.42 27.78
TOR 19.09 17.81 28.72
OTT 19.21 14.62 35.64
MTL 14.94 12.65 28.45

 

FPTS Against:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is giving up to each position.  Lower numbers are better. For example, QBs going up against Toronto are only able to score an average of 15.22 FPTS. WRs facing Ottawa are scoring over 33 FPTS, on average per game.

TEAM QB RB WR
BC 20.71 12.84 34.65
CGY 15.18 11.93 26.29
EDM 19.32 16.29 29.58
SSK 19.14 14.51 32.63
WPG 21.77 15.63 40.70
HAM 25.89 14.68 42.56
TOR 15.22 14.40 31.75
OTT 19.65 14.20 33.66
MTL 20.25 18.46 31.45

Week 15: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets w/ Receptions:

NAME TAR REC
SJ Green 124 74
Greg Ellingson 118 78
Brad Sinopoli 118 84
Luke Tasker 103 66
Emmanuel Arceneaux 100 69
Darvin Adams 99 65
Namaan Roosevelt 92 64
Marquay McDaniel 92 56
Brandon Zylstra 86 66
Duron Carter 85 51
Diontae Spencer 85 53
Bryan Burnham 85 56
Nik Lewis 84 70
BJ Cunningham 82 49
Bakari Grant 79 58
Jalen Saunders 77 46
Ernest Jackson 76 43
Armanti Edwards 74 58
Duke Williams 65 38
Joshua Stangby 64 41
Clarence Denmark 64 44
DaVaris Daniels 61 37
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 59 42
Marken Michel 59 31
Weston Dressler 52 34
Jeff Fuller 51 24
Julian Feoli Gudino 50 34
DeVier Posey 49 32
Chris Williams 49 30
Brandon Banks 48 26
Tiquan Underwood 47 29
Kamar Jorden (inj) 44 28
Marco Iannuzzi 44 31
Adarius Bowman 43 26

WR by Receiving Yards:

NAME REC YDS
Greg Ellingson 1186
SJ Green 1053
Brandon Zylstra 982
Darvin Adams 961
Brad Sinopoli 932
Namaan Roosevelt 929
Bryan Burnham 887
BJ Cunningham 820
Emmanuel Arceneaux 784
Bakari Grant 760
Luke Tasker 691
Armanti Edwards 690
Jalen Saunders 686
Marquay McDaniel 675
Duron Carter 646
Duke Williams 620
Nik Lewis 619
Marken Michel 609
Ernest Jackson 600
DaVaris Daniels 595
Diontae Spencer 578
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 560
Clarence Denmark 483
Weston Dressler 482
Bryant Mitchell 482
Joshua Stangby 478
Tiquan Underwood 458
Nick Moore 456
DeVier Posey 410
Kamar Jorden (inj) 403
Marco Iannuzzi 384
Julian Feoli Gudino 356
Shaq Johnson 351
Anthony Parker 344
Caleb Holley 343
Chris Williams 332

WR by Receiving Touchdowns:

NAME REC TDS
Duron Carter 8
Greg Ellingson 7
SJ Green 7
Namaan Roosevelt 7
Darvin Adams 6
Bakari Grant 6
Clarence Denmark 6
Ernest Jackson 5
Joshua Stangby 5
BJ Cunningham 4
Emmanuel Arceneaux 4
Marquay McDaniel 4
DaVaris Daniels 4
Diontae Spencer 4
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 4
DeVier Posey 4
Kamar Jorden (inj) 4
Brandon Zylstra 3
Brad Sinopoli 3
Bryan Burnham 3
Luke Tasker 3
Armanti Edwards 3
Jalen Saunders 3
Duke Williams 3
Marken Michel 3
Bryant Mitchell 3
Julian Feoli Gudino 3
Brandon Banks 3
Ryan Lankford 3
Weston Dressler 2
Tiquan Underwood 2
Caleb Holley 2
Lemar Durant 2
Adarius Bowman 2

Week 15: Running Back Stats

RB by Rushing Yards w/ Carries:

NAME RUSH YDS CAR
Jerome Messam 897 178
Jeremiah Johnson 752 127
Andrew Harris 739 135
Tyrell Sutton 604 109
William Powell 556 103
James Wilder 503 60
Cameron Marshall 489 88
LaDarius Perkins 319 71
Brandon Whittaker 318 71
Mossis Madu 317 71
CJ Gable 309 56
Travon Van (INJ) 236 60
Brandon Rutley 202 35
Timothy Flanders 191 31
Kienan Lafrance 146 39
Ross Scheuerman 145 23
Brendan Gillanders 133 21
Roy Finch 114 21
John White (INJ) 112 20
Chris Rainey 95 27

RB by Rushing Touchdowns:

NAME RUSH TDS
Jerome Messam 9
Jeremiah Johnson 8
Andrew Harris 5
Tyrell Sutton 3
William Powell 3
CJ Gable 3
Travon Van (INJ) 3
James Wilder 2
Cameron Marshall 2
Mossis Madu 2
LaDarius Perkins 1
Timothy Flanders 1
Kienan Lafrance 1
Ross Scheuerman 1
John White (INJ) 1
Chris Rainey 1
JC Beaulieu 1
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 1
Stefan Logan 1
Ante Milanovic-Litre 1

RB by Receiving Touchdowns:

NAME REC TDS
Jeremiah Johnson 3
Chris Rainey 3
Cameron Marshall 2
Mossis Madu 2
Timothy Flanders 2
Declan Cross 2
Andrew Harris 1
William Powell 1
Travon Van (INJ) 1
LaDarius Perkins 1
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 1
Patrick Lavoie 1

Week 15: Quarterback Stats

QB by Completions w/ Attempts:

NAME COMP ATT
Ricky Ray 330 472
Trevor Harris 327 463
Matt Nichols 322 459
Mike Reilly 310 444
Bo Levi Mitchell 278 431
Darian Durant 257 383
Kevin Glenn 253 362
Jonathan Jennings 182 285
Zach Collaros 165 263
Travis Lulay 121 165
Jeremiah Masoli 101 174

QB by Passing Yards:

NAME PASS YDS
Mike Reilly 3949
Ricky Ray 3749
Trevor Harris 3724
Bo Levi Mitchell 3713
Matt Nichols 3606
Kevin Glenn 3184
Darian Durant 3015
Jonathan Jennings 2232
Zach Collaros 1743
Travis Lulay 1693
Jeremiah Masoli 1149
Brandon Bridge 525
Drew Tate 299
Ryan Lindley 227
Drew Willy 217

QB by Passing Touchdowns:

NAME PASS TDS
Matt Nichols 24
Trevor Harris 23
Kevin Glenn 21
Mike Reilly 20
Ricky Ray 18
Bo Levi Mitchell 18
Darian Durant 14
Travis Lulay 10
Zach Collaros 8
Brandon Bridge 7
Jonathan Jennings 6
Jeremiah Masoli 4
Drew Tate 2
Cody Fajardo 1
Andrew Buckley 1
James Franklin 1

QB by Rushing Touchdowns:

NAME RUSH TDS
Mike Reilly 6
Travis Lulay 5
Dan Lefevour 4
Andrew Buckley 3
Ryan Lindley 3
Vernon Adams Jr 3
Matt Nichols 2
Kevin Glenn 2
Jonathan Jennings 2
Jeremiah Masoli 2
Cody Fajardo 2
Darian Durant 1
Brandon Bridge 1
Drew Willy 1

Week 15: Fantasy Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Mike Reilly 22.36
Matt Nichols 21.00
Kevin Glenn 18.79
Trevor Harris 18.71
Ricky Ray 17.14
Bo Levi Mitchell 15.86
Travis Lulay 15.14
Darian Durant 12.98
Jonathan Jennings 11.85
Zach Collaros 10.87
Jeremiah Masoli 7.94
Brandon Bridge 6.53
Drew Tate 5.72
James Franklin 4.36
Cody Fajardo 3.46
Andrew Buckley 3.24
Dan Lefevour 3.11
Drew Willy 3.08
Ryan Lindley 2.27
Vernon Adams Jr 1.88
Jeff Mathews 0.68
Alex Ross 0.42
Mcleod Bethel-Thompson 0.32

RB by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Jeremiah Johnson 14.23
Andrew Harris 14.13
Travon Van (INJ) 12.64
William Powell 11.96
Jerome Messam 11.79
Cameron Marshall 11.08
Chris Rainey 10.62
Roy Finch 10.44
Mossis Madu 10.36
Tyrell Sutton 10.02
Ross Scheuerman 9.30
Brandon Rutley 9.07
LaDarius Perkins 8.72
Ante Milanovic-Litre 8.60
CJ Gable 8.48
Terry Williams 7.83
James Wilder 7.63
Timothy Flanders 7.46
Martese Jackson 7.22
Stefan Logan 7.12
John White (INJ) 6.80
Brandon Whittaker 6.73
Kendial Lawrence (INJ) 6.45
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 5.77
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 4.70
Kienan Lafrance 4.22
Greg Morris 4.06
Declan Cross 3.42
JC Beaulieu 3.32
Brendan Gillanders 2.40
Patrick Lavoie 2.19

WR by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Derel Walker 12.35
Brandon Zylstra 11.79
Kamar Jorden (inj) 11.73
Greg Ellingson 11.47
SJ Green 11.33
Namaan Roosevelt 11.24
Darvin Adams 11.05
Diontae Spencer 10.42
Duron Carter 10.02
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 10.00
Bryant Mitchell 9.89
Bryan Burnham 9.70
DeVier Posey 9.29
Ryan Lankford 9.25
Bakari Grant 9.24
Jalen Saunders 8.63
BJ Cunningham 8.57
DaVaris Daniels 8.35
Weston Dressler 8.11
Marken Michel 8.09
Duke Williams 8.00
Brandon Banks 7.93
Brad Sinopoli 7.80
Emmanuel Arceneaux 7.72
Kenny Stafford 7.70
Marquay McDaniel 7.63
Armanti Edwards 7.58
Joshua Stangby 7.40
Demarr Aultman 7.37
Luke Tasker 7.26
Clarence Denmark 7.13
Ernest Jackson 7.05
Jasper Collins 6.83
Devon Bailey 6.67
Adarius Bowman 6.42
Caleb Holley 6.33
Lemar Durant 6.26
Quincy McDuffie 5.97
Chris Williams 5.82
Tiquan Underwood 5.78