Week 16: Beta Projections

2018 Model Projections Are Here! Very much in BETA testing, take for what you will. Please see the post below this one for further explanation.

Good luck this week, everyone!

Week 16 QB Beta Projections:

NAME Floor Median Ceiling PROJ Stats
Matt Nichols 12.30 21.89 28.40 24.80 22/30, 310Yds, 3TD, 4Rush
Ricky Ray 7.20 17.12 28.10 22.48 24/35, 312Yds, 3TD, 1FUM
Mike Reilly 15.60 21.00 33.80 21.56 24/33, 299, 2TD, 16Rush
Trevor Harris 11.30 19.59 25.60 19.20 26/37, 330Yds, 2TD, 1INT
Jeremiah Masoli 8.80 11.04 22.30 18.92 21/35, 268Yds, 2TD, 1INT, 22Rush
Kevin Glenn 8.00 15.42 29.00 18.40 19/28, 240Yds, 2TD, 8Rush
Jonathan Jennings 5.10 11.60 23.20 16.59 18/28, 235Yds, 2TD, 1INT
Darian Durant (1) 4.20 14.82 23.90 12.04 20/36, 241Yds, 1TD, 2INT, 24Rush
Drew Willy (1) 0.65 4.75 13.20 11.56 19/29, 189Yds, 1TD

Week 16 RB Beta Projections:

NAME Floor Median Ceiling PROJ Stats
Jeremiah Johnson 7.10 12.15 24.88 15.90 78Rush, 41Rec, 1TD
Andrew Harris 6.90 13.24 25.75 15.10 102Rush, 49Rec, 1TD
CJ Gable (EDM) n/a 13.03 n/a 14.20 61Rush, 21Rec, 1TD
James Wilder 3.55 7.14 27.80 13.10 79Rush, 52Rec
William Powell 5.10 11.89 19.60 10.70 85Rush, 22Rec
Alex Green n/a 15.50 n/a 10.30 58Rush, 45Rec
Stefan Logan 2.10 8.30 18.50 9.95 5Rush, 30Rec, 129Ret
Tyrell Sutton 2.30 11.87 19.70 9.90 51Rush, 48Rec
Trent Richardson (2) n/a n/a n/a 9.00 68Rush, 22Rec
Chris Rainey 3.12 9.07 18.10 8.80 12Rush, 22Rec, 108Ret
Martese Jackson 3.05 7.53 21.20 8.20 4Rush, 6Rec, 144Ret
Timothy Flanders 1.10 6.47 16.10 8.10 48Rush, 33Rec
Kienan Lafrance (2) 1.90 6.31 14.90 7.90 51Rush, 28Rec
Declan Cross 0.80 3.18 9.75 3.80 38Rec

Week 16 WR Beta Projections:

NAME Floor Median Ceiling PROJ Stats
Darvin Adams 4.50 12.05 26.10 14.90 69Rec, 2TD
Derel Walker 8.20 11.61 17.10 14.80 88Rec, 1TD
Namaan Roosevelt 5.70 10.28 18.10 14.20 82Rec, 1TD
Greg Ellingson 4.90 11.43 23.00 13.20 92Rec, 1TD
Luke Tasker 3.20 9.03 16.10 13.10 71Rec, 1TD
Duron Carter 3.60 9.08 19.90 12.90 69Rec, 1TD
Clarence Denmark 1.95 7.93 18.80 12.50 65Rec, 1TD
Bryan Burnham 4.30 10.37 20.35 12.10 81Rec, 1TD
DeVier Posey 2.60 11.25 23.10 11.80 58Rec, 1TD
Brandon Zylstra 6.50 10.90 19.70 11.00 110Rec
SJ Green 3.25 11.19 26.50 10.50 45Rec, 1TD
Ernest Jackson 2.10 7.32 14.20 10.30 43Rec, 1TD
Diontae Spencer 2.70 10.08 16.30 8.85 61Rec, 55Ret
Jalen Saunders 3.20 10.74 17.90 8.80 88Rec
Duke Williams 1.80 6.77 17.40 8.20 82Rec
Brandon Banks 2.90 10.30 16.70 7.70 66Rec, 22Ret
Emmanuel Arceneaux 2.10 8.25 17.00 7.40 74Rec
Brad Sinopoli 3.90 7.75 15.60 7.10 71Rec
Demarr Aultman 0.90 7.94 9.25 6.60 132Ret
BJ Cunningham 2.10 8.46 16.40 6.10 61Rec
Bakari Grant 4.10 8.10 13.80 6.10 61Rec
Armanti Edwards 1.80 8.09 12.90 6.10 54Rec, 14Ret
Ryan Lankford 2.10 9.89 17.70 5.65 12Rush, 22Rec, 45Ret
Bryant Mitchell 2.40 8.85 18.90 4.80 48Rec
Chris Williams 1.90 6.22 15.50 4.70 47Rec
Joshua Stangby 1.25 7.41 11.90 4.40 44Rec
Kenny Stafford 2.20 6.90 12.80 4.30 43Rec
Nick Moore 1.30 6.13 17.30 3.40 34Rec

Week 16: A Note About Projections

Hello Football Fans!

Just a quick update – this week I am going to debut the BETA version of my new Projections Model.  I was planning on waiting for next season but I’m a bit too excited about it.

The new model first creates Floor – Median – Ceiling figures for each player.  This is based mostly on Historical Performance, and the Week’s Matchup.

We then dive deeper into the data and introduce a number of subjectively weighted variables. For things such as Streaking Performance, Home vs Away Game, Support Roster Changes (injuries, etc.), Defensive Roster Matchups, “Revenge” Games, Weather and other conditions, etc.  These variables create the fine-tuned final projection – complete with full projected statistics.

Week 16 Beta Projections should be out later today, tomorrow morning at the latest. At the expense, however, of the Position Analysis write-up. That’s likely not getting done this week…

Stay Tuned!

Week 16: Fantasy Points FOR/AGAINST Per Position

FPTS For:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is scoring at each position.  Higher numbers are better. For example, Saskatchewan QBs are averaging 21.60 FPTS per game. Hamilton RBs are only averaging 10.82 FPTS per game.

QB RB WR
BC 19.69 20.07 28.95
CGY 18.78 17.16 34.24
EDM 22.97 12.58 39.36
SSK 21.60 11.78 38.88
WPG 23.56 17.62 35.86
HAM 15.00 10.82 28.60
TOR 19.75 17.38 29.82
OTT 18.94 15.04 34.53
MTL 15.00 12.69 27.62

FPTS Against:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is giving up to each position.  Lower numbers are better. For example, QBs going up against Toronto are only able to score an average of 15.62 FPTS. WRs facing Ottawa are scoring over 32.9 FPTS, on average per game.

QB RB WR
BC 20.71 12.84 34.65
CGY 15.23 12.02 25.61
EDM 19.25 16.54 29.53
SSK 18.84 15.00 31.58
WPG 21.76 15.75 40.28
HAM 26.08 14.45 42.68
TOR 15.62 15.35 32.23
OTT 18.88 14.21 32.94
MTL 20.29 19.87 31.14

Week 16: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets w/ Receptions:

NAME TAR REC
SJ Green 131 77
Greg Ellingson 124 81
Brad Sinopoli 124 89
Luke Tasker 113 72
Darvin Adams 105 67
Emmanuel Arceneaux 100 69
Marquay McDaniel 99 60
Brandon Zylstra 97 75
Namaan Roosevelt 92 64
Duron Carter 92 56
Diontae Spencer 89 56
Bakari Grant 87 65
BJ Cunningham 86 52
Bryan Burnham 85 56
Nik Lewis 84 70
Ernest Jackson 84 49
Jalen Saunders 84 51
Armanti Edwards 77 61
Duke Williams 72 42
Clarence Denmark 69 47
Marken Michel 67 38
Joshua Stangby 64 41
DaVaris Daniels 61 37
DeVier Posey 61 39
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 59 42
Brandon Banks 55 29
Tiquan Underwood 52 33
Weston Dressler 52 34
Jeff Fuller 51 24
Julian Feoli Gudino 51 35

WR by Receiving Yards:

NAME REC YDS
Greg Ellingson 1232
Brandon Zylstra 1134
SJ Green 1102
Darvin Adams 1006
Brad Sinopoli 1000
Namaan Roosevelt 929
Bryan Burnham 887
BJ Cunningham 851
Jalen Saunders 807
Bakari Grant 802
Emmanuel Arceneaux 784
Marquay McDaniel 779
Armanti Edwards 736
Luke Tasker 735
Duron Carter 735
Marken Michel 723
Ernest Jackson 673
Duke Williams 652
Nik Lewis 619
Diontae Spencer 602
DaVaris Daniels 595
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 560
DeVier Posey 514
Clarence Denmark 508
Tiquan Underwood 491
Weston Dressler 482
Bryant Mitchell 482
Joshua Stangby 478
Nick Moore 456
Kamar Jorden (inj) 403
Brandon Banks 394

WR by Receiving Touchdowns:

NAME REC TDS
Greg Ellingson 8
Duron Carter 8
SJ Green 7
Darvin Adams 7
Namaan Roosevelt 7
Clarence Denmark 7
Bakari Grant 6
DeVier Posey 6
Ernest Jackson 5
Joshua Stangby 5
BJ Cunningham 4
Emmanuel Arceneaux 4
Marquay McDaniel 4
Armanti Edwards 4
Luke Tasker 4
Diontae Spencer 4
DaVaris Daniels 4
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 4
Kamar Jorden (inj) 4
Brandon Banks 4
Brandon Zylstra 3
Brad Sinopoli 3
Bryan Burnham 3
Jalen Saunders 3
Marken Michel 3
Duke Williams 3
Bryant Mitchell 3
Julian Feoli Gudino 3
Ryan Lankford 3

Week 16: Running Back Stats

RB by Carries:

NAME CAR
Jerome Messam 178
Andrew Harris 143
William Powell 129
Jeremiah Johnson 127
Tyrell Sutton 120
Cameron Marshall 88
CJ Gable 74
James Wilder 73
LaDarius Perkins 71
Brandon Whittaker 71
Mossis Madu 71
Travon Van 71
Kienan Lafrance 51
Timothy Flanders 36
Brandon Rutley 35
Chris Rainey 27
Ross Scheuerman 23
Roy Finch 21
Brendan Gillanders 21
John White (INJ) 20
Terry Williams 17
Pascal Lochard 14
Calvin McCarty 13
Rob Cote 12
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 10
Stefan Logan 9

RB by Rushing Yards:

NAME RUSH YDS
Jerome Messam 897
Andrew Harris 793
Jeremiah Johnson 752
William Powell 743
Tyrell Sutton 641
James Wilder 552
Cameron Marshall 489
CJ Gable 466
LaDarius Perkins 319
Brandon Whittaker 318
Mossis Madu 317
Travon Van 283
Timothy Flanders 203
Brandon Rutley 202
Kienan Lafrance 198
Terry Williams 155
Ross Scheuerman 145
Brendan Gillanders 133
Roy Finch 114
John White (INJ) 112
Pascal Lochard 104

RB by Rushing Touchdowns:

NAME RUSH TDS
Jerome Messam 9
Jeremiah Johnson 8
Andrew Harris 6
CJ Gable 5
William Powell 3
Tyrell Sutton 3
Travon Van 3
Terry Williams 3
James Wilder 2
Cameron Marshall 2
Mossis Madu 2
Kienan Lafrance 2
LaDarius Perkins 1
Timothy Flanders 1
Ross Scheuerman 1
John White (INJ) 1
Chris Rainey 1
JC Beaulieu 1
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 1
Stefan Logan 1
Ante Milanovic-Litre 1

RB by Receiving Touchdowns:

NAME REC TDS
Jeremiah Johnson 3
Chris Rainey 3
Cameron Marshall 2
Mossis Madu 2
Timothy Flanders 2
Declan Cross 2
Andrew Harris 1
William Powell 1
Tyrell Sutton 1
Travon Van 1
LaDarius Perkins 1
Calvin McCarty 1
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 1
Patrick Lavoie 1

Week 16: Quarterback Stats

QB by Completions w/ Attempts:

NAME COMP ATT
Ricky Ray 355 510
Matt Nichols 346 491
Mike Reilly 341 490
Trevor Harris 327 463
Bo Levi Mitchell 292 450
Kevin Glenn 273 394
Darian Durant 257 383
Jonathan Jennings 182 285
Zach Collaros 165 263
Travis Lulay 121 165
Jeremiah Masoli 119 206
Brandon Bridge 40 58
Ryan Lindley 40 81
Drew Willy 35 50

QB by Passing Yards:

NAME PASS YDS
Mike Reilly 4260
Ricky Ray 4079
Bo Levi Mitchell 3978
Matt Nichols 3844
Trevor Harris 3724
Kevin Glenn 3436
Darian Durant 3015
Jonathan Jennings 2232
Zach Collaros 1743
Travis Lulay 1693
Jeremiah Masoli 1437
Brandon Bridge 525
Ryan Lindley 391
Drew Willy 354

QB by Passing Touchdowns:

NAME PASS TDS
Matt Nichols 26
Trevor Harris 23
Mike Reilly 22
Ricky Ray 21
Kevin Glenn 21
Bo Levi Mitchell 20
Darian Durant 14
Travis Lulay 10
Zach Collaros 8
Brandon Bridge 7
Jonathan Jennings 6
Jeremiah Masoli 6

QB by Interceptions:

NAME INT
Darian Durant 14
Mike Reilly 12
Kevin Glenn 12
Jonathan Jennings 12
Ricky Ray 8
Bo Levi Mitchell 8
Matt Nichols 7
Trevor Harris 7
Travis Lulay 7
Zach Collaros 7
Jeremiah Masoli 4
Ryan Lindley 3

QB by Rushing Touchdowns:

NAME RUSH TDS
Mike Reilly 6
Travis Lulay 5
Ryan Lindley 4
Dan Lefevour 4
Andrew Buckley 3
Cody Fajardo 3
Vernon Adams Jr 3
Kevin Glenn 2
Jonathan Jennings 2
Matt Nichols 2
Jeremiah Masoli 2
Darian Durant 1
Brandon Bridge 1
Drew Willy 1

Week 16: Fantasy Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Mike Reilly 22.30
Matt Nichols 20.77
Trevor Harris 18.71
Kevin Glenn 17.90
Ricky Ray 17.53
Bo Levi Mitchell 16.06
Travis Lulay 15.14
Darian Durant 12.98
Jonathan Jennings 11.85
Zach Collaros 10.87
Jeremiah Masoli 9.01
Brandon Bridge 6.53
Drew Tate 5.72
Matt Shiltz 5.20
James Franklin 4.36
Drew Willy 4.17
Cody Fajardo 3.67
Ryan Lindley 3.26
Andrew Buckley 3.16
Dan Lefevour 2.88
Vernon Adams Jr 1.88
Jeff Mathews 0.68
Alex Ross 0.42
Mcleod Bethel-Thompson 0.32

RB by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Terry Williams 16.88
Andrew Harris 14.55
Jeremiah Johnson 14.23
William Powell 12.83
Jerome Messam 11.79
Travon Van 11.46
Cameron Marshall (INJ) 11.08
Chris Rainey 10.62
CJ Gable 10.62
Mossis Madu 10.36
Tyrell Sutton 10.31
Roy Finch 10.11
Ross Scheuerman 9.30
Brandon Rutley 9.07
LaDarius Perkins 8.72
Ante Milanovic-Litre 8.60
Martese Jackson 8.08
James Wilder 7.67
Stefan Logan 7.21
Timothy Flanders 7.11
John White (INJ) 6.80
Brandon Whittaker (INJ) 6.73
Kendial Lawrence (INJ) 6.45
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 5.77
Kienan Lafrance 5.48
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 4.70
Greg Morris 4.06
Declan Cross 3.41
JC Beaulieu 3.32
Brendan Gillanders 2.40

WR by Average Fantasy Points:

NAME AVG FPTS
Derel Walker 12.97
Brandon Zylstra 12.18
Kamar Jorden (inj) 11.73
Greg Ellingson 11.41
Namaan Roosevelt 11.24
Darvin Adams 11.00
DeVier Posey 10.93
SJ Green 10.87
Diontae Spencer 10.06
Vidal Hazelton (INJ) 10.00
Duron Carter 9.93
Bryant Mitchell 9.89
Bryan Burnham 9.70
Ryan Lankford 9.03
Jalen Saunders 8.92
Bakari Grant 8.85
Brandon Banks 8.55
Marken Michel 8.39
DaVaris Daniels 8.35
BJ Cunningham 8.18
Weston Dressler 8.11
Armanti Edwards 7.85
Marquay McDaniel 7.84
Brad Sinopoli 7.73
Emmanuel Arceneaux 7.72
Kenny Stafford 7.70
Duke Williams 7.56
Luke Tasker 7.50
Joshua Stangby 7.40
Clarence Denmark 7.24
Ernest Jackson 7.07
Jasper Collins 6.83
Christion Jones 6.68
Devon Bailey 6.67
Demarr Aultman 6.59
Lemar Durant 6.26
Chris Williams 5.82
Nick Moore 5.73
Caleb Holley 5.73
Adarius Bowman 5.67