Week 20: Beta Projections

Last chance to test run the new model before the end of the season.  The new model first creates Floor – Median – Ceiling figures for each player.  This is based mostly on Historical Performance, and the Week’s Matchup.

We then dive deeper into the data and introduce a number of subjectively weighted variables that I’m always tweaking and tuning.  Heavier weighted on average performance, average performance over the last four games, and the matchup. Heavy to Median weighted on Roster variables such as Same Position Injuries, other Offensive Position Injuries, QB Injuries, Opponent Defense Injuries and Position on Depth Chart. Lighter weighted on things such as Streaking Performance, Home vs Away Game, Field Conditions and Weather. These variables create the fine-tuned final projection.

Hope you’ve all enjoyed the content this year. Looking forward to the next season already.

Week 20 QB Beta Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling Fproj
Mike Reilly 13.45 23.10 32.75 26.37
Jeremiah Masoli 5.86 21.58 37.29 23.59
Jonathan Jennings 2.27 15.82 29.36 20.47
Ricky Ray 8.76 18.85 28.94 18.50
Bo Levi Mitchell 9.22 18.18 27.14 17.42
Kevin Glenn 1.11 17.03 32.95 15.87
Dan Lefevour 0.18 5.47 10.77 10.58
Matt Schiltz 2.20 5.12 10.24 8.92

Week 20 RB Beta Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling Fproj
CJ Gable 3.47 16.31 29.15 18.77
James Wilder 0.24 13.04 25.84 16.14
Alex Green 16.09 19.91 23.72 13.93
Trent Richardson 5.94 17.08 28.22 12.88
Jeremiah Johnson 4.45 13.05 21.64 11.34
Chris Rainey 4.67 18.46 32.24 11.08
Andrew Harris 5.57 14.01 22.45 10.31
Tyrell Sutton 2.66 12.81 22.96 9.41
Jerome Messam 1.21 15.65 30.09 9.32
Cameron Marshall 6.28 15.94 25.60 9.02
Martese Jackson 2.49 10.60 18.71 8.48
Stefan Logan 3.88 12.52 21.15 7.63
Kienan Lafrance 1.94 9.14 16.34 6.70

Week 20 WR Beta Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling Fproj
Brandon Banks 4.74 18.56 32.38 16.89
Brandon Zylstra 3.14 13.48 23.82 16.56
Bryan Burnham 4.51 13.36 22.21 15.95
Namaan Roosevelt 2.58 9.24 15.91 14.62
SJ Green 3.50 16.05 28.60 13.96
DaVaris Daniels 1.21 13.45 25.70 13.00
Derel Walker 6.53 10.02 13.50 12.88
Luke Tasker 3.19 11.52 19.86 12.36
Caleb Holley 2.84 7.91 12.98 12.24
Chad Owens 17.42 17.42 17.42 12.18
Kamar Jorden 5.27 13.12 20.98 12.17
Adarius Bowman 1.13 9.10 17.07 12.16
Jalen Saunders 3.29 11.97 20.65 11.29
DeVier Posey 3.07 13.40 23.73 10.32
Weston Dressler 2.65 13.50 24.34 10.27
Marken Michel 0.88 14.55 28.23 9.43
Armanti Edwards 2.33 11.28 20.23 8.94
BJ Cunningham 1.26 11.39 21.53 8.93
Duron Carter 0.44 12.16 23.87 8.88
Marquay McDaniel 2.31 11.97 21.64 8.52
Ernest Jackson 0.76 9.32 17.88 8.47
Christion Jones 3.24 8.33 13.42 8.39
Nick Moore 1.36 15.35 29.34 8.35
Emmanuel Arceneaux 2.62 10.22 17.81 8.28
Vidal Hazelton 3.22 11.15 19.08 7.70
Clarence Denmark 1.28 9.10 16.93 7.58
Ryan Lankford 2.20 9.20 16.20 7.49
Bakari Grant 0.89 6.31 11.73 6.92
Nik Lewis 3.78 9.69 15.61 6.20
Chris Givens 8.78 8.78 8.78 5.41

Week 20: Fantasy Points For/Against Per Position

FPTS For:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is scoring at each position.  Higher numbers are better. For example, Saskatchewan QBs are averaging 20.78 FPTS per game. Hamilton RBs are only averaging 11.17 FPTS per game.

TEAM QB RB WR
BC 20.57 19.27 30.02
CGY 17.58 15.21 33.12
EDM 24.45 13.12 39.92
SSK 20.78 12.49 37.65
WPG 21.05 15.73 31.99
HAM 17.65 11.17 33.16
TOR 20.59 19.48 29.91
OTT 19.70 15.43 36.24
MTL 14.06 12.98 26.59

FPTS Against:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is giving up to each position.  Lower numbers are better. For example, QBs going up against Calgary are only able to score an average of 16.10 FPTS. WRs facing Ottawa are scoring over 35.5 FPTS, on average per game.

TEAM QB RB WR
BC 20.39 12.28 33.46
CGY 16.10 12.07 26.55
EDM 19.02 16.06 29.28
SSK 17.71 14.49 29.62
WPG 22.52 18.19 39.64
HAM 23.43 14.61 40.36
TOR 17.15 14.36 32.89
OTT 20.12 13.67 35.59
MTL 20.82 19.83 33.02

Week 20: Fantasy Rankings

QB by Average FPTS Per Game:

NAME FPPG
Mike Reilly 23.62
Trevor Harris 18.86
Matt Nichols 17.63
Ricky Ray 17.59
Kevin Glenn 15.53
Bo Levi Mitchell 15.28
Travis Lulay 15.14
Jonathan Jennings 14.69
Jeremiah Masoli 13.26
Darian Durant 11.83
Zach Collaros 9.76
Brandon Bridge 7.56
Matt Shiltz 6.69
Drew Tate 5.68
James Franklin 4.69

RB by Average FPTS Per Game:

NAME FPPG
CJ Gable 16.18
William Powell 13.45
Alex Green 12.92
Andrew Harris 12.80
Jeremiah Johnson 12.77
Chris Rainey 12.70
Terry Williams 12.22
Travon Van (INJ) 11.46
Tyrell Sutton 10.74
Cameron Marshall 10.52
Mossis Madu 10.36
Jerome Messam 10.31
Roy Finch 10.11
James Wilder 9.99
Trent Richardson 9.53
Ante Milanovic-Litre 8.60
LaDarius Perkins 8.53
Brandon Rutley 8.20
Martese Jackson 7.96
Ross Scheuerman 7.23
Timothy Flanders 7.21
Stefan Logan 7.18
John White (INJ) 6.80
Brandon Whittaker 6.48
Kendial Lawrence (INJ) 6.45
Kienan Lafrance 5.87
Anthony Coombs (INJ) 5.77
Dominque Williams 5.75
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 4.70
Declan Cross 4.16

WR by Average FPTS Per Game:

NAME FPPG
Chad Owens 13.70
Brandon Zylstra 13.27
Greg Ellingson 12.11
Brandon Banks 11.91
Diontae Spencer 11.84
Derel Walker 11.34
SJ Green 11.29
Kamar Jorden 11.08
Namaan Roosevelt 10.82
Bryan Burnham 10.45
Darvin Adams 10.41
Duron Carter 9.99
Bryant Mitchell 9.89
DeVier Posey 9.75
Jalen Saunders 9.31
Weston Dressler 9.04
Vidal Hazelton 8.84
Luke Tasker 8.38
DaVaris Daniels 8.19
Ryan Lankford 8.18
Emmanuel Arceneaux 7.91
BJ Cunningham 7.89
Bakari Grant 7.79
Marquay McDaniel 7.76
Kenny Stafford 7.70
Marken Michel 7.67
Armanti Edwards 7.49
Joshua Stangby 7.40
Brad Sinopoli (INJ) 7.38
Duke Williams 7.35
Christion Jones 7.18
Adarius Bowman 7.07
Caleb Holley 7.03
Chris Givens 7.00
Ernest Jackson 6.73
Devon Bailey 6.67
Demarr Aultman 6.59
Lemar Durant 6.26
Clarence Denmark 6.09
Nick Moore 6.06