Hello and Welcome to Week 5!
I don’t normally do ‘writing’, I’m mainly just a numbers guy. But let’s break tradition for a few minutes and analyse some matchups.
Week 5 sees the BC Lions taking on the Winnipeg BlueBombers. What do the numbers say?
BC is scoring pretty much the exact amount of Fantasy Points at the QB positon, that Winnipeg is giving up, on average. Looks like a safe bet for 20-22 FPTS from your BC QB position.
On the other side of the ball, it is also a very even matchup, with WPG expected to score 18 FPTS against a BC Defense that gives up just over 17. So neither QB from BC or WPG really stands out to me this week.
At the RB position, however, things look more interesting.
BC leads the league in FPTS at the RB position, and WPG gives up the 3rd most in the league. Start your BC backfield.
WPG is no slouch in the RB department, Andrew Harris almost always a must-start. BC, however, is pretty stout against the run, so I would temper expectations this week.
Through the air, BC is the third worst team scoring at the WR positons. However, WPG gives up the 2nd most FPTS in the league to WRs. It’s an ugly matchup, but perfect for someone like Manny Arceneaux to finally break out this season.
Week 5 also sees the Calgary Stampeders versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
Bo Levi Mitchell is always a good play. This week in particular we see his 3rd best in the league FPTS go against a middle of the road SSK Defense.
I’m going to recommend Kevin Glenn as a start over BLM, however. SSK scores the MOST Fantast Points at the QB position so far this year. Calgary gives up the 4th most points to the position.
In the backfield, you’d think Messam would be a must start almost every week. This week, however, he goes up against a SSK defense that is best in the league against RB FPTS.
And I’d also stay away from SSK RBs this week, as they are the 2nd worst FPTS average in the league, despite a terrible Calgary run Defense.
In the passing game, start your Calgary WRs. 2nd best scoring in the league vs SSK’s 6th worst defense. Other side of the ball is equally attractive. SSK WRs should have a decent day.
The Edmonton Eskimos will face off with the Hamilton Ti-Cats.
Start all your Eskimos, sit all your Ti-Cats. Enough said.
Ottawa RedBlacks versus the Montreal Alouettes, in Ottawa’s first game of the week, an early Wednesday start.
Despite Ottawa’s win-loss record, they have very decent Fantasy numbers. 2nd best at the QB position, 2nd best RBs and 3rd best WRs, in terms of average FPTS scored.
However, Montreal sits with the 4th best rank against QBs, 3rd best against RBs and 3rd best against WRs. Pretty evenly matched up. I think it will be a great game.
The one position matchup I’d really trust here is the Montreal backfield. Start Sutton, he’s getting a great amount of touches, although he’ll go up against the 2nd best defense against the run. I still trust him based on volume. I give him an 8 point floor, upwards to an 18 point ceiling. My projection has him scoring right in the middle there. *edit* Sutton is a no-go this week, it will be Brandon Rutley.
Toronto Argos versus the Ottawa RedBlacks, on Monday night.
We’ll have more numbers to look at by this time, as Ottawa will have another game under their belt. Initially, I am going to recommend starting Toronto WRs against a bad Ottawa defense (7th worst against WRs), and start your Ottawa RBs against an equally bad Toronto D against the run.
Whew. That was interesting.
If I were to do more of these types of Matchup Analysis in the future, would you prefer it to be a Podcast, YouTube, or just an article like this? Or should I just stick to the numbers? 😉
Drop me a line in the comments or my email and let me know what you think! Always looking for suggestions to improve the usefulness of this site! Thanks for reading!