Week 5: Matchup Analysis

Hello and Welcome to Week 5!

I don’t normally do ‘writing’, I’m mainly just a numbers guy. But let’s break tradition for a few minutes and analyse some matchups.

Week 5 sees the BC Lions taking on the Winnipeg BlueBombers. What do the numbers say?

BC is scoring pretty much the exact amount of Fantasy Points at the QB positon, that Winnipeg is giving up, on average. Looks like a safe bet for 20-22 FPTS from your BC QB position.
On the other side of the ball, it is also a very even matchup, with WPG expected to score 18 FPTS against a BC Defense that gives up just over 17. So neither QB from BC or WPG really stands out to me this week.

At the RB position, however, things look more interesting.
BC leads the league in FPTS at the RB position, and WPG gives up the 3rd most in the league. Start your BC backfield.
WPG is no slouch in the RB department, Andrew Harris almost always a must-start. BC, however, is pretty stout against the run, so I would temper expectations this week.

Through the air, BC is the third worst team scoring at the WR positons. However, WPG gives up the 2nd most FPTS in the league to WRs. It’s an ugly matchup, but perfect for someone like Manny Arceneaux to finally break out this season.

Week 5 also sees the Calgary Stampeders versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Bo Levi Mitchell is always a good play. This week in particular we see his 3rd best in the league FPTS go against a middle of the road SSK Defense.
I’m going to recommend Kevin Glenn as a start over BLM, however. SSK scores the MOST Fantast Points at the QB position so far this year. Calgary gives up the 4th most points to the position.

In the backfield, you’d think Messam would be a must start almost every week. This week, however, he goes up against a SSK defense that is best in the league against RB FPTS.
And I’d also stay away from SSK RBs this week, as they are the 2nd worst FPTS average in the league, despite a terrible Calgary run Defense.

In the passing game, start your Calgary WRs. 2nd best scoring in the league vs SSK’s 6th worst defense. Other side of the ball is equally attractive. SSK WRs should have a decent day.

The Edmonton Eskimos will face off with the Hamilton Ti-Cats.

Start all your Eskimos, sit all your Ti-Cats. Enough said.

Ottawa RedBlacks versus the Montreal Alouettes, in Ottawa’s first game of the week, an early Wednesday start.

Despite Ottawa’s win-loss record, they have very decent Fantasy numbers. 2nd best at the QB position, 2nd best RBs and 3rd best WRs, in terms of average FPTS scored.
However, Montreal sits with the 4th best rank against QBs, 3rd best against RBs and 3rd best against WRs. Pretty evenly matched up. I think it will be a great game.
The one position matchup I’d really trust here is the Montreal backfield. Start Sutton, he’s getting a great amount of touches, although he’ll go up against the 2nd best defense against the run. I still trust him based on volume. I give him an 8 point floor, upwards to an 18 point ceiling. My projection has him scoring right in the middle there. *edit* Sutton is a no-go this week, it will be Brandon Rutley.

Toronto Argos versus the Ottawa RedBlacks, on Monday night.

We’ll have more numbers to look at by this time, as Ottawa will have another game under their belt. Initially, I am going to recommend starting Toronto WRs against a bad Ottawa defense (7th worst against WRs), and start your Ottawa RBs against an equally bad Toronto D against the run.

Whew. That was interesting.

If I were to do more of these types of Matchup Analysis in the future, would you prefer it to be a Podcast, YouTube, or just an article like this? Or should I just stick to the numbers? 😉

Drop me a line in the comments or my email and let me know what you think! Always looking for suggestions to improve the usefulness of this site! Thanks for reading!

Week 5: Starting Rosters

Note: All rosters are only official one day before gameday, and will be updated as teams release their depth charts.

BC Lions:
QB: Travis Lulay
RB: Jeremiah Johnson
FB: Lumbala
SB: Emmanuel Arceneaux, Bryan Burnham, Marco Iannuzzi
WR: Nick Moore, Shaq Johnson
PR, KR: Rainey

Calgary Stampeders:
QB: Bo Levi Mitchell
RB: Jerome Messam
FB: Power
SB: Jorden, McDaniel, Parker
WR: Daniels, Durant

Edmonton Eskimos:
QB: Mike Reilly
RB: Travon Van
FB: Calvin McCarty
SB: Mitchell, Watson, Zylstra
WR: Hazelton, Williams
PR, KR: Lawrence

Sask Roughriders:
QB: Kevin Glenn
RB: Cameron Marshall
FB: Moore
SB: Naaman Roosevelt, Bakari Grant, Antwane Grant
WR: Duron Carter, Rob Bagg
PR, KR: Demski, Morris

Winnipeg BlueBombers:
QB: Matt Nichols
RB: Andrew Harris
FB: Normand
SB: Dressler, Thorpe, Denmark
WR: Adams, Feoli-Guidino
KR, PR: Lankford

Hamilton Ti-Cats:
QB: Zach Collaros
RB: Scheuerman
FB: Prime
SB: Collins, Tasker, Saunders
WR: Tyms, Jones
PR, KR: Brandon Banks

Toronto Argos:
QB: Ricky Ray
RB: Wilder Jr
FB: Declan Cross
SB: SJ Green, Anthony Coombs, Armanti Edwards
WR: Williams, Jeff Fuller
PR, KR: Jackson

Ottawa RedBlacks
QB: Trevor Harris
RB: Powell
FB: Lavoie
SB: Hoffman, Sinopoli, Ellingson
WR: Stangby, Spencer
PR, KR: Spencer, Stangby

Montreal Alouettes:
QB: Darian Durant
RB: Tyrell Sutton(out!) Brandon Rutley will start
FB: JC Beaulieu
SB: BJ Cunningham, Nik Lewis
WR: Ernest Jackson, George Johnson
KR,PR: Logan

Week 5: Start/Sit HeatMap

Start/Sit Heatmap is based on average performance at that position, versus strength/weakness of the current week’s matchup.
Green means start with confidence, Red means beware!

Week 5: Projections!

Projections are calculated using the player’s average FPTS of the current season, takes into account the strength/weakness of the matchup, plus adds/subtracts bonuses for other considerations such as – home or away, streaking performance (performance over the last 4 games only vs entire season), current team trends and injuries/support roster changes.

Please note the 2017 Fantasy Scoring system, down the left side-bar.

Week 5 QB Projections:

Mike Reilly 24.90
Kevin Glenn 22.47
Ricky Ray 19.70
Bo Levi Mitchell 18.41
Darian Durant 17.38
Matt Nichols 16.46
Trevor Harris 16.23
Jonathan Jennings 14.27
Zach Collaros 12.43

Week 5 RB Projections:

Jeremiah Johnson 16.21
Madu/Powell 14.38
Ross Scheuerman 13.59
Andrew Harris 13.05
Travon Van 12.70
Brandon Rutley 11.70
Cameron Marshall 11.41
Martese Jackson 9.12
Jerome Messam 8.51
Greg Morris 7.40
Roy Finch 7.39
Chris Rainey 7.06
Terry Williams 6.73
Brendan Gillanders 6.45
Brandon Whittaker 5.31
CJ Gable 5.13
LaDarius Perkins 5.06
Kendial Lawrence 4.91

Week 5 WR Projections:

Kamar Jorden 14.84
Weston Dressler 14.70
SJ Green 13.58
Jalen Saunders 13.33
BJ Cunningham 12.90
Nick Moore 12.51
Brandon Zylstra 12.24
Adarius Bowman 11.29
Bakari Grant 11.14
Greg Ellingson 10.54
Namaan Roosevelt 10.25
Diontae Spencer 9.95
Ryan Lankford 9.91
Armanti Edwards 9.72
Nic Demski 9.24
Vidal Hazelton 9.06
Bryan Burnham 8.85
DaVaris Daniels 8.69
Duke Williams 8.27
Ernest Jackson 7.86
Brad Sinopoli 7.64
Darvin Adams 7.33
Tiquan Underwood 6.87
Jasper Collins 6.85
Joshua Stangby 6.82
Lemar Durant 6.74
Brandon Banks 6.48
Khalil Paden 6.26
Duron Carter 6.22
Marquay McDaniel 6.06
Emmanuel Arceneaux 5.97
Marco Iannuzzi 5.57
Shaq Johnson 5.44
Nik Lewis 5.38
Julian Feoli Gudino 5.09
Marken Michel 4.72
Daje Johnson 4.26
Luke Tasker 4.16

Week 5: Quarterback Stats

QB by Passing Yards

NAME PassYds
Ricky Ray 1529
Bo Levi Mitchell 1382
Trevor Harris 1379
Kevin Glenn 1055
Darian Durant 940
Mike Reilly 866
Jonathan Jennings 853
Matt Nichols 826
Zach Collaros 792
Travis Lulay 436
Dan Lefevour 20

QB by Passing TouchDowns

Trevor Harris 8
Bo Levi Mitchell 7
Kevin Glenn 7
Matt Nichols 5
Ricky Ray 4
Darian Durant 4
Mike Reilly 4
Travis Lulay 3
Jonathan Jennings 2
Zach Collaros 2

QB by Rushing TouchDowns

Travis Lulay 3
Kevin Glenn 2
Ryan Lindley 2
Vernon Adams Jr 1
Cody Fajardo 1
Jeremiah Masoli 1
Andrew Buckley 1

Week 5: Running Back Stats

RB by Carries

Tyrell Sutton 51
Jerome Messam 48
Jeremiah Johnson 44
Andrew Harris 40
Travon Van 35
Cameron Marshall 30
Mossis Madu 27
Brandon Whittaker 22
William Powell 20
John White 20
James Wilder 14
Ross Scheuerman 13
Brendan Gillanders 12

RB by Rushing Yards

NAME RushYds
Tyrell Sutton 295
Jeremiah Johnson 265
Jerome Messam 188
Andrew Harris 170
Cameron Marshall 166
Travon Van 153
Mossis Madu 125
John White 112
Brendan Gillanders 80
Ross Scheuerman 77
William Powell 76
Brandon Whittaker 66
James Wilder 66
JC Beaulieu 40
Roy Finch 26
Greg Morris 11
CJ Gable 9

RB by Rushing Touchdowns

Jeremiah Johnson 4
Tyrell Sutton 2
Andrew Harris 2
Jerome Messam 1
Travon Van 1
Mossis Madu 1
John White 1
Ross Scheuerman 1
William Powell 1

RB by Receiving Yards

Anthony Coombs 180
Jeremiah Johnson 150
Andrew Harris 120
Jerome Messam 89
Brandon Whittaker 86
Chris Rainey 76
Patrick Lavoie 74
Terry Williams 74
Cameron Marshall 73
Tyrell Sutton 65
William Powell 46
Mossis Madu 45
Travon Van 42
Ross Scheuerman 38
James Wilder 35
Calvin McCarty 35
Roy Finch 33
CJ Gable 24

Week 5: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets

Greg Ellingson 43
SJ Green 42
Marquay McDaniel 34
Kamar Jorden 34
Brad Sinopoli 34
Namaan Roosevelt 32
Bryan Burnham 32
Emmanuel Arceneaux 31
DeVier Posey 31
Duron Carter 27
Bakari Grant 26
Armanti Edwards 26
Darvin Adams 26
Brandon Zylstra 25
BJ Cunningham 24
Adarius Bowman 24
Nick Moore 24
Weston Dressler 24
DaVaris Daniels 22
Brian Tyms 22
Luke Tasker 22
Joshua Stangby 21
Tiquan Underwood 20
Nik Lewis 20
Vidal Hazelton 20
Lemar Durant 19
Ernest Jackson 18
Jalen Saunders 18
Nic Demski 17
Diontae Spencer 17
Jeff Fuller 15
Jasper Collins 15

WR by Receptions

Greg Ellingson 30
Brad Sinopoli 25
SJ Green 24
Marquay McDaniel 24
Namaan Roosevelt 23
Armanti Edwards 21
Brandon Zylstra 21
Bryan Burnham 20
Kamar Jorden 19
Emmanuel Arceneaux 19
DeVier Posey 19
Weston Dressler 19
Bakari Grant 18
Nick Moore 18
Nik Lewis 18
BJ Cunningham 15
Nic Demski 15
Duron Carter 14
Darvin Adams 14
Adarius Bowman 14
Brian Tyms 14
Luke Tasker 14
Vidal Hazelton 14
Lemar Durant 14
DaVaris Daniels 12
Joshua Stangby 12
Marco Iannuzzi 12
Tiquan Underwood 11
Ernest Jackson 11
Jalen Saunders 11
Diontae Spencer 11
Caleb Holley 10

WR by Receiving Yards

SJ Green 452
Greg Ellingson 435
Nick Moore 340
Brad Sinopoli 319
Kamar Jorden 309
Weston Dressler 309
Brandon Zylstra 296
Namaan Roosevelt 285
DeVier Posey 280
Armanti Edwards 273
BJ Cunningham 265
Marquay McDaniel 249
Jalen Saunders 225
Bryan Burnham 223
Lemar Durant 212
DaVaris Daniels 208
Nik Lewis 194
Diontae Spencer 192
Emmanuel Arceneaux 191
Bakari Grant 185
Ernest Jackson 185
Nic Demski 184
Marco Iannuzzi 171
Tiquan Underwood 162
Darvin Adams 159
Vidal Hazelton 159
Adarius Bowman 153
Duron Carter 144
Jeff Fuller 140
Duke Williams 140
Luke Tasker 134
Joshua Stangby 134
Mike Jones 132
Caleb Holley 129
Shaq Johnson 114

WR by Receiving TouchDowns

Kamar Jorden 4
Bakari Grant 3
Weston Dressler 2
DeVier Posey 2
BJ Cunningham 2
Adarius Bowman 2
Joshua Stangby 2
SJ Green 1
Greg Ellingson 1
Nick Moore 1
Brad Sinopoli 1
Namaan Roosevelt 1
Armanti Edwards 1
Jalen Saunders 1
Bryan Burnham 1
Lemar Durant 1
DaVaris Daniels 1
Diontae Spencer 1
Ernest Jackson 1
Nic Demski 1
Tiquan Underwood 1
Darvin Adams 1
Vidal Hazelton 1
Duron Carter 1
Duke Williams 1
Caleb Holley 1
Shaq Johnson 1
Julian Feoli Gudino 1
Jasper Collins 1
L’Damian Washington 1
Juron Criner 1
Marken Michel 1

Week 5: Wide Receiver Rankings

WR by Average Fantasy Points

Kamar Jorden 15.25
Weston Dressler 14.63
Jalen Saunders 14.30
DeVier Posey(inj) 13.33
SJ Green 12.80
Bakari Grant 12.50
Greg Ellingson 12.38
Diontae Spencer 11.69
Namaan Roosevelt 11.50
BJ Cunningham 10.43
Nic Demski 10.37
Nick Moore 10.00
Brandon Zylstra 9.87
Ryan Lankford 9.87
Armanti Edwards 9.16
Adarius Bowman 9.10
Brad Sinopoli 8.98
DaVaris Daniels 8.93
Caleb Holley(inj) 8.45
Joshua Stangby 8.01
Jasper Collins 7.35
Vidal Hazelton 7.30
Darvin Adams 7.30
Bryan Burnham 7.08
Jeff Fuller(inj) 7.00
Duron Carter 6.98
Brandon Banks 6.95
Lemar Durant 6.93
Duke Williams 6.67
Ernest Jackson 6.35
Marquay McDaniel 6.23
Khalil Paden 5.90
Tiquan Underwood 5.55
Juron Criner(inj) 5.20
Julian Feoli Gudino 5.07
Daje Johnson 5.00
Marken Michel 4.85
Emmanuel Arceneaux 4.78
Luke Tasker 4.47
Marco Iannuzzi 4.45

Week 5: Running Back Rankings

RB by Average Fantasy Points

Jeremiah Johnson 19.21
Mossis Madu 14.50
Andrew Harris 13.67
Travon Van 12.93
Tyrell Sutton 12.70
William Powell 12.10
Ross Scheuerman 8.75
Martese Jackson 8.70
Roy Finch 8.60
Chris Rainey 8.36
Terry Williams 7.83
Jerome Messam 7.43
Cameron Marshall 7.30
John White(inj) 6.80
Brendan Gillanders 6.50
LaDarius Perkins 5.15
Brandon Whittaker 5.07
Kendial Lawrence 5.00
Greg Morris 4.73
Stefan Logan 4.63

Week 5: Quarterback Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points

Kevin Glenn 25.07
Trevor Harris 20.29
Bo Levi Mitchell 19.82
Mike Reilly 17.98
Ricky Ray 17.39
Matt Nichols 16.25
Travis Lulay 14.21
Darian Durant 13.13
Zach Collaros 11.96
Jonathan Jennings 10.71
Ryan Lindley 4.40
Andrew Buckley 4.10
Jeremiah Masoli 2.50
Cody Fajardo 2.43
Vernon Adams Jr 1.63
Dan Lefevour 0.63
Brandon Bridge 0.30
Drew Tate -2.00