Week 6: Matchup Analysis

Welcome to Week 6, Football Fans!

I’m on vacation with Family this week, so my contributions to the site may be a bit sparse.  I wrote this before Week 5 even concluded, so take it for what you will!

Let’s take a look at what the numbers say for Week 6 matchups.

We kick it off on Thursday night with the Montreal Alouettes visiting the Winnipeg BlueBombers.

At the QB position, offensively Montreal does not inspire confidence, though Durant has steadily improved his numbers 3 games straight now.  Defensively, Winnipeg is weak, giving up the 3rd most FPTS to the position. Doesn’t sound like a matchup I’d get behind. On the other side of the ball Nichols seems attractive given his Salary – it’s going to be hard to get BLM or Reilly in your lineup this week. Nichols may be a safe alternative – though he is widely inconsistent.

At the RB position, Winnipeg gives up the MOST in the league to opposing backs. If Sutton is a go, he’s a must start. He averages almost 13 carries per game plus four targets, and has scored over 16 FPTS his last two outings. Montreal is solid against the run, so temper expectations with Harris this week, who only has two TDs in his four game so far this year.

Through the air I have a hard time recommending receivers from either team.  Dressler had a huge start, but has been inconsistent since. Ernest Jackson and BJ Cunningham are the only Alouette recievers with double-digit FPTS in two games or more. Montreal scores the 2nd fewest at the position, Winnipeg the 4th fewest. Side with Montreal’s receiving core if you have to, as Winnipeg is the 2nd worst team against WR’s in the league.

On Friday, the Edmonton Eskimos will host the BC Lions.

Travis Lulay now has two 400+ yard games in a row.  Will he make it three in a row against an Edmonton Defense that only gives up an average of 13.8 FPTS to QB’s?  That’s best in the league. I’m staying away. If Jennings returns, I’m definitely staying away.

As predicted, Manny Arceneaux broke out last week against WPG, but Edmonton is the best in the league against the WR position.  They are not, however, as good against the run. I’m starting BC’s backfield with confidence.  Johnson has a TD in every game he’s played this year, and averages over 18 FPTS per game. He’s this week’s START OF THE WEEK.  I’ll even give him a 12 point floor.

If Travon Van remains ~ $7000 value on DraftKings, I’m going with him as well against a middle-of-the-road BC run D. His lowest performance as a starter thus far has been 11.70 FPTS.

Watch for Vidal Hazelton to further emerge with Adarius Bowman now on the 6 game IR. Zylstra maintains the most consistent receiver for EDM thus far.

Then we are off to Mosaic on Saturday when the Toronto Argos visit the Sask Roughriders.

With Kevin Glenn’s disappointing performance in Calgary last week, SSK has dropped from the best in the league at the QB position, all the way to the 5th spot.  Toronto is 2nd best against QB’s so I’m sitting Glenn.

I’m also sitting Toronto’s backfield, 3rd worst in the league against a SSK defense only giving up 10.80 FPTS per game to Backs. But watch Coombs, he seems to be the hot hand at the moment.

I’m also watching SJ Green, getting over 10 targets per game, and a now healthy Jeff Fuller through the air and limiting expectations of SSK receivers – EDIT Toronto really put the brakes on Ottawa’s offense at the end of Week 5, maybe they’ll do it again to SSK.

The week will wrap up on Saturday with the Calgary Stampeders hosting the lowly Hamilton Ti-Cats.

Hamilton is worst in the league at the QB position.  Worst in the league at the RB position. Worst in the league at the WR position.

Defensively, they are the worst in the league against the QB position. Worst in the league against the WR position.

I guess what I’m trying to say is they are the worst in every category except against the RB position, where they sit 5th best.

So start all your Stamps. ALL OF THEM. Kamar Jorden stands out as the ONLY receiver in the league to score double-digit fantasy points in four or more games(4 of 5) – EDIT now Ellingson joins that list(4 of 6).

Good luck this week, everyone!

Week 6: Start/Sit HeatMap

Start/Sit Heatmap is based on average performance at that position, versus strength/weakness of the current week’s matchup.
Green means start with confidence, Red means beware!

Week 6: Wide Receiver Rankings

WR by Average Fantasy Points

Kamar Jorden 13.96
Greg Ellingson 13.72
Bryant Mitchell 13.60
DeVier Posey 13.33
Jalen Saunders 12.37
Weston Dressler 11.70
SJ Green 11.56
Darvin Adams 10.95
Bakari Grant 10.60
BJ Cunningham 10.50
Brandon Zylstra 10.23
Namaan Roosevelt 10.05
Brad Sinopoli 10.00
Ryan Lankford 9.93
Adarius Bowman (inj) 9.10
Diontae Spencer 8.98
Armanti Edwards 8.95
Nick Moore 8.72
Vidal Hazelton 8.65
Bryan Burnham 8.64
Caleb Holley 8.45
Joshua Stangby 8.24
Nic Demski 8.03
Lemar Durant 7.96
Marquay McDaniel 7.94
Tiquan Underwood 7.54
Emmanuel Arceneaux 7.22
DaVaris Daniels 7.13
Ernest Jackson 7.10
Jasper Collins 6.83
Tyron Thorpe 6.50
Brandon Banks 6.40
Marken Michel 6.28
Jeff Fuller 6.13
Nik Lewis 5.96
Duke Williams 5.95
Khalil Paden 5.90
Duron Carter 5.84
Luke Tasker 5.70
Juron Criner (inj) 5.20

Week 6: Running Back Rankings

RB by Average Fantasy Points

Jeremiah Johnson 17.65
Tyrell Sutton 12.70
Andrew Harris 12.60
Travon Van 12.52
William Powell 11.25
Chris Rainey 11.01
Mossis Madu 10.10
Jerome Messam 9.82
Cameron Marshall 9.30
Ross Scheuerman 9.30
Martese Jackson 8.38
Roy Finch 7.90
Terry Williams 7.83
Brandon Rutley 6.90
John White(inj.) 6.80
Brendan Gillanders 6.50
Anthony Coombs 6.48
Kendial Lawrence 6.45
LaDarius Perkins 5.15
Brandon Whittaker(inj) 5.07

Week 6: Quarterback Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points

Kevin Glenn 20.83
Mike Reilly 19.99
Trevor Harris 19.26
Matt Nichols 19.25
Bo Levi Mitchell 19.08
Ricky Ray 18.63
Travis Lulay 17.55
Darian Durant 14.52
Zach Collaros 11.11
Jonathan Jennings 10.71
Andrew Buckley 3.13
Ryan Lindley 2.70
Dan Lefevour 2.26
Cody Fajardo 1.90
Jeremiah Masoli 1.88
Vernon Adams Jr 1.32
Brandon Bridge 0.35
Drew Tate -2.00