Week 7: Matchup Analysis

Welcome to Week 7, CFL Football Fans!

I think we were spoiled last week. That Winnipeg Montreal game, are you kidding me??!?! Amazing.  Duron Carter’s multiple circus catch performance?!?!? Nuts.

Anyways, let’s take a look at some numbers and how they can help predict what this week brings us.

We kick off the week on Thursday night with the Calgary Stampeders visiting the Toronto Argos.

Let’s start with CGY’s offense.  BLM is almost always a must start, if you can afford him. His numbers took a dip last week as he sat the 2nd half against Hamilton, but that 11 point performance could have easily been a 20 burger.  Even though I’m only giving him QB7 against a 3rd best TOR defense, he’s still a safe start.

Watch for Messam to get a good amount of use to control the clock in this game. Another safe start, RB3 this week.

Kamar Jordan looks to be heading to the 6-game IR. Start Marken Michel and hope he gets the looks he got last week At his salary, he’s almost a must start. He’s played two games as a receiver this week, and has a Touchdown in each. Stamps receiving core should do well but TOR is 3rd best against WRs.

Ricky Ray continues to have a good season. Four of his Six games this year scored over 22 FPTS. CGY is only 5th best against QBs, so there may be a value play here.

TOR’s backfield scores the 5th most FPTS on average, but its spread across so many different players its hard to get behind. The only TOR backfielder to score multiple 10+ FPTS game is Martese Jackson.

CGY is second best in the league agasinst WR’s but SJ Green is almost always a must start. I see him around WR3 this week. Watch Jeff Fuller and Armanti Edwards to continue to be targeted.

Friday Night Football’s first double-header will feature the Winnipeg BlueBombers in Ottawa to take on the RedBlacks.

Matt Nichols has two ugly games under his belt, but his other three games averages 27 FPTS. Ottawa gives up the 2nd most to QBs.  This looks like a good start, QB3 this week.

When is Andrew Harris not a must start? I didn’t expect so much of him last week but he lit it up in a crazy game.  I see more of a passing theme and likely not as high-scoring this week but I’ll still give him RB4, I hope to see 14 FPTS from him.

OTT gives up the third most FPTS to the WR position. Darvin Adams should continue to get looks, I have him around WR8 this week. Denmark now has TDs in his last two games. Dressler looks like he may be out for this week, as he sat practice on Monday. This makes room for a big value play in Ryan Lankford, who has been getting points on the return game already. Give him some receiving yards as a WR at his low DraftKings salary and it only makes sense. He also has double-digit FPTS in his last three games! Value Play Of The Week!

On the other side of the ball, I see Trevor Harris having a Trevor Harris kind of performance. He throws yards and TDs but also has been turning the ball over. I can get behind his Receivers more than him, especially at his salary.  Keep rolling with Ellingson (WR1) and Sinopoli (WR6) this week.

And I’m giving William Powell the RB2 rank for this week, going up against a WPG defense 2nd worst in the league against Backs. Averaging 12 FPTS in his last three games.

And the Double Header concludes with the lowly Hamilton Ti-Cats in Edmonton.

For the third week in a row I don’t think I need to say much about going up against Hamilton. Worst in the league at the QB, RB and WR positions.  Worst in the league against QBs and against WRs. 2nd worst in the league against the RB position.

Sit all your Cats, except maybe if you can get Saunders for a decent salary. Luke Tasker has yet to put up a double-digit FPTS performance in his 5 games played.  If I only give him a 10 point ceiling this week, maybe he’ll finally break out.  Kevin Elliott returns from injury, maybe that will help boost the offense a touch.

Of course this makes Mike Reilly my QB1 this week, but watch out for the same kind of situation that occurred in Calgary – maybe Reilly gets the bench if they start blowing away the miserable tabby cats.

EDM’s backfield is an injury minefield.  John White is out, Van went out last week and Kendial Lawrence is now on long-term IR. It’s a good matchup, for whoever the Eskimos start in the backfield.

Start Zylstra (WR2) and start Hazelton (WR5) this week. And there could be some value plays in Duke Williams and Cory Watson. Not 100 percent sold on Bryant Mitchell yet.

The week will conclude with the BC Lions playing host to the Sask Roughriders.

Travis Lulay went up against a best-in-the-league EDM defense last week, and still pulled out 24 FPTS. He should be able to repeat that kind of performance against a 4th best SSK D. Start him! I’m tempted to give him QB2 this week, with a very safe floor.

SSK is second best in the league against the run. But you can’t sit Jeremiah Johnson. At least one TD in every game he’s played this year and 10-18 touches per game.

BC receivers don’t have a favourable matchup. But Chris Williams is eligible to play starting this week, so watch for some much needed assistance and the field to open up. His return would likely drop Nic Moore off the starting roster.  Emmanuel Arceneaux is still too inconsistent to start at his salary – only one game so far in the double digit FTPS.

When Kevin Glenn has a good game, he gets close to 30 FPTS in a game. He’s only had one stinker, and one mediocre game.  BC gives up the third most to QBs, so this could be a decent value play I’ve picked with confidence in my own DraftKings league.

The SSK backfield has not been very Fantasy relevant, but watch Cameron Marshall as his usage seems to be increasing – 14 touches in week 5, 21 touches in week 6, double-digit FPTS both times.

And the SSK receiving core is coming off a great game against TOR. I think they can keep it rolling against a mediocre BC D – only 6th best in the league against the WR positon. Start Roosevelt (WR7) and Carter (WR10) if you can get them in your lineup. They share similar target numbers with Roosevelt leading the way.


I think this is the most time I’ve ever spent on a Matchup Analysis.  Hope it was worth it, leave me a comment to let me know what you think!

Good luck this week, Everyone!


Week 7: Start/Sit HeatMap

Start/Sit Heatmap is based on average performance at that position, versus strength/weakness of the current week’s matchup.
Green means start with confidence, Red means beware!

Week 7: Projections!

Projections are calculated using the player’s average FPTS of the current season, takes into account the strength/weakness of the matchup, plus adds/subtracts bonuses for other considerations such as – home or away, streaking performance (performance over the last 4 games only vs entire season), current team trends and injuries/support roster changes.

Please note the 2017 Fantasy Scoring system, down the left side-bar.

Week 7 QB Projections:

Mike Reilly 26.59
Travis Lulay 26.04
Matt Nichols 24.26
Kevin Glenn 22.74
Ricky Ray 22.54
Trevor Harris 20.88
Bo Levi Mitchell 18.64
Zach Collaros 12.93

Week 7: RB Projections:

Jeremiah Johnson 15.38
William Powell/Madu 14.63
Jerome Messam 14.20
Andrew Harris 13.99
Travon Van 12.43
Anthony Coombs 10.83
Cameron Marshall 10.45
Roy Finch 10.44
Chris Rainey 9.16
Martese Jackson 8.74
CJ Gable/Scheuerman 8.58
Brendan Gillanders 4.87
LaDarius Perkins 4.67
Terry Williams 4.17
Ante Milanovic-Litre 3.88

Week 7: WR Projections:

Greg Ellingson 18.78
Brandon Zylstra 16.85
SJ Green 14.84
Kamar Jorden/Marken Michel 14.80
Vidal Hazelton 14.41
Brad Sinopoli 12.77
Namaan Roosevelt 12.76
Darvin Adams 12.11
Ryan Lankford 11.80
Duron Carter 10.55
DaVaris Daniels 10.35
Weston Dressler 10.33
Bakari Grant 10.26
Jalen Saunders 10.25
Diontae Spencer 9.68
Duke Williams 9.51
Joshua Stangby 8.88
Bryan Burnham 8.68
Nick Moore 8.57
Emmanuel Arceneaux 8.39
Jeff Fuller 8.29
Clarence Denmark 8.12
Luke Tasker 8.08
Caleb Holley 8.05
Armanti Edwards 8.01
Bryant Mitchell 7.80
Marquay McDaniel 7.31
Cory Watson 6.89
Tyron Thorpe 6.77
Jasper Collins 6.70
Lemar Durant 6.41
Llevi Noel 6.17
Nic Demski 6.15
Brandon Banks 6.02
Khalil Paden 5.43
Marco Iannuzzi 5.08

Week 7: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets

SJ Green 60
Greg Ellingson 56
Brad Sinopoli 50
Namaan Roosevelt 49
Luke Tasker 45
Kamar Jorden 44
Bryan Burnham 44
Emmanuel Arceneaux 44
Brandon Zylstra 43
Darvin Adams 43
Duron Carter 43
Armanti Edwards 41
Marquay McDaniel 40
Nik Lewis 40
Vidal Hazelton 38
Bakari Grant 37
BJ Cunningham 37
DaVaris Daniels 34
Jalen Saunders 32
Ernest Jackson 32
DeVier Posey(inj) 31
Nick Moore 31
Tiquan Underwood(inj) 31
Weston Dressler 29
Joshua Stangby 29
Lemar Durant 28
Brian Tyms 28
Diontae Spencer 27
Duke Williams 27
Jeff Fuller 26
Marco Iannuzzi 25
Adarius Bowman (inj) 24
Shaq Johnson 23
Jasper Collins 21
Mike Jones 21
Julian Feoli Gudino 20
Caleb Holley 17

WR by Receiving Yards

Greg Ellingson 643
SJ Green 586
Brandon Zylstra 516
BJ Cunningham 475
Brad Sinopoli 440
Armanti Edwards 428
Bryan Burnham 415
Nick Moore 409
Kamar Jorden 403
Namaan Roosevelt 393
Vidal Hazelton 385
Ernest Jackson 352
Bakari Grant 349
Weston Dressler 342
Darvin Adams 337
Marquay McDaniel 337
Nik Lewis 330
Jalen Saunders 307
Lemar Durant 293
Duron Carter 287
DaVaris Daniels 285
Duke Williams 282
DeVier Posey(inj) 280
Emmanuel Arceneaux 279
Marco Iannuzzi 258
Tiquan Underwood(inj) 257
Luke Tasker 250
Diontae Spencer 238
Marken Michel 227
Joshua Stangby 218
Jeff Fuller 213

WR by Receiving Touchdowns

Kamar Jorden 4
Greg Ellingson 3
BJ Cunningham 3
Brad Sinopoli 3
Vidal Hazelton 3
Bakari Grant 3
Darvin Adams 3
Duron Carter 3
Emmanuel Arceneaux 3
SJ Green 2
Namaan Roosevelt 2
Ernest Jackson 2
Weston Dressler 2
Lemar Durant 2
DeVier Posey(inj) 2
Tiquan Underwood(inj) 2
Marken Michel 2
Joshua Stangby 2
Caleb Holley 2
Adarius Bowman (inj) 2
Clarence Denmark 2
Brandon Zylstra 1
Armanti Edwards 1
Bryan Burnham 1
Nick Moore 1
Marquay McDaniel 1
Nik Lewis 1
Jalen Saunders 1
DaVaris Daniels 1
Duke Williams 1
Luke Tasker 1
Diontae Spencer 1
Jeff Fuller 1
Nic Demski 1
Shaq Johnson 1
Jasper Collins 1
Julian Feoli Gudino 1
Cory Watson 1
Bryant Mitchell 1
Anthony Parker 1
Ryan Lankford 1
L’Damian Washington 1
Juron Criner (inj) 1
Llevi Noel 1

Week 7: Running Back Stats

RB by Rushing Yards

Jerome Messam 414
Jeremiah Johnson 343
Cameron Marshall 316
Tyrell Sutton 295
Andrew Harris 240
Travon Van 207
William Powell 187
Ross Scheuerman 145
James Wilder 137
Mossis Madu 134
Brandon Rutley 124
John White 112
JC Beaulieu 91
Brendan Gillanders 80
CJ Gable 78
Brandon Whittaker 66
Roy Finch 65
Stefan Logan 50
Calvin McCarty 45
Chris Rainey 36

RB by Rushing Touchdowns

Jerome Messam 5
Jeremiah Johnson 5
Andrew Harris 4
Tyrell Sutton 2
Travon Van 2
Cameron Marshall 1
William Powell 1
Ross Scheuerman 1
Mossis Madu 1
John White 1
JC Beaulieu 1
Stefan Logan 1
Chris Rainey 1
Ante Milanovic-Litre 1


RB by Receiving Touchdowns

Jeremiah Johnson 2
William Powell 1
Mossis Madu 1
Chris Rainey 1
Anthony Coombs 1
Declan Cross 1

Week 7: Quarterback Stats

QB by Passing Yards

Ricky Ray 2282
Trevor Harris 1939
Bo Levi Mitchell 1832
Darian Durant 1740
Mike Reilly 1628
Kevin Glenn 1598
Matt Nichols 1438
Zach Collaros 1143
Travis Lulay 1099
Jonathan Jennings 853

QB by Passing Touchdowns

Trevor Harris 12
Kevin Glenn 11
Bo Levi Mitchell 10
Matt Nichols 10
Ricky Ray 9
Mike Reilly 9
Darian Durant 8
Travis Lulay 7
Zach Collaros 3
Jonathan Jennings 2

Week 7: Wide Receiver Rankings

WR by Average Fantasy Points

Greg Ellingson 13.72
DeVier Posey(inj) 13.33
Marken Michel 12.75
SJ Green 11.77
Kamar Jorden 11.73
Brandon Zylstra 11.70
BJ Cunningham 11.57
Jalen Saunders 11.48
Vidal Hazelton 11.30
Ryan Lankford 11.24
Bakari Grant 10.78
Darvin Adams 10.58
Namaan Roosevelt 10.26
Duron Carter 10.04
Brad Sinopoli 10.00
Weston Dressler 9.84
Adarius Bowman (inj) 9.10
Diontae Spencer 8.98
Armanti Edwards 8.69
Caleb Holley 8.47
Joshua Stangby 8.24
Ernest Jackson 8.02
Marquay McDaniel 7.94
Bryan Burnham 7.92
Nick Moore 7.82
Emmanuel Arceneaux 7.65
Tiquan Underwood(inj) 7.54
Bryant Mitchell 7.10
Lemar Durant 6.97
DaVaris Daniels 6.90
Duke Williams 6.84
Jasper Collins 6.83
Jeff Fuller 6.83
Llevi Noel 6.70
Nic Demski 6.46
Tyron Thorpe 6.45
Luke Tasker 6.20
Nik Lewis 6.17
Brandon Banks 6.14
Khalil Paden 5.90

Week 7: Running Back Rankings

RB by Average Fantasy Points

Jeremiah Johnson 16.94
Andrew Harris 15.16
Jerome Messam 12.75
Tyrell Sutton 12.70
Chris Rainey 11.59
William Powell 11.25
Mossis Madu 10.10
Cameron Marshall 9.80
Travon Van 9.60
Ross Scheuerman 9.30
Roy Finch 9.21
Martese Jackson 8.98
Ante Milanovic-Litre 8.60
Brandon Rutley 8.35
Terry Williams 7.83
Stefan Logan 7.47
Anthony Coombs 7.02
John White 6.80
Brendan Gillanders 6.50
Kendial Lawrence 6.45
CJ Gable 6.00

Week 7: Quarterback Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points

Mike Reilly 22.70
Kevin Glenn 22.58
Matt Nichols 20.30
Ricky Ray 20.11
Trevor Harris 19.26
Travis Lulay 19.01
Bo Levi Mitchell 17.88
Darian Durant 15.67
Jonathan Jennings 10.71
Zach Collaros 9.30