Week 8: Matchup Analysis

Welcome to Week 8, Football Fans!

Let’s dive into the numbers and see what they can tell us about this week’s match-ups.

Thursday Aug 10 530 PM MDT
Edmonton Eskimos at Ottawa RedBlacks

Edmonton goes into this game scoring the MOST fantasy points at the QB position. They go up against an Ottawa Defense that gives up the 2nd most to QBs. Reilly has averaged over 31 FPTS in his last three games. He is a must start and QB1 this week.

Edmonton has the third best in the league Defense against QBs. I know Trevor Harris is due for a huge game soon, but I’m not certain this is it. He hasn’t scored over 25 FPTS all season.

Perkins looked decent in his first start for Edmonton. Overall the Eskimos on paper look terrible in the backfield, due to many injuries. But Perkins should be a decent value play for at least another week.

If healthy, William Powell is also hard to pass up based on his salary. Limit your expectations, however, as Edmonton has been solid against the run, limiting opposing RB’s to 13 FPTS per game. If Madu gets the start, not much changes.

Edmonton receivers score the 2nd most FPTS in the league. Ottawa gives up the 6th most. We’ll have to watch for the status of Brandon Zylstra’s injury. Hazelton looks like a must start, averaging 15 FPTS since Bowman went down, and Bryant Mitchell has emerged with two TDs in his three games.

Ellingson and Sinopoli will continue to be popular starts this week, despite Edmonton being the 2nd best in the league against WRs. Ellingson has double-digit FPTS in 5 of 7 games with TDs in the last 3.

Friday Aug 11 530 PM MDT
Toronto Argos at Montreal Alouettes

Ricky Ray is nursing a shoulder injury. We’ll have to watch for who gets the start. The backup in Cody Fajardo doesn’t inspire much confidence, and it’s a mediocre matchup at best – 6th best QB versus 6th best Defense against the position. I think there are better matchups to be found this week but there are those who will take a flier based on his salary alone.

Darian Durant will be rested off the bye week, but his 2nd worst in the league FPTS at the QB position goes up against Toronto’s 2nd best Defense. Avoid. Durant has thrown 5 picks in his last three games and has only scored over 20 FPTS twice this season.

Toronto’s backfield continues to be a wasteland for Fantasy owners. Whittaker, Wilder Jr, Cross and McDaniel have never seen double-digit FPTS. Martese Jackson gets his points inconsistently on punt and kick returns – feast or famine. Coombs gets in on the passing game but is too inconsistent to start.

Anyone’s guess for Sutton or Rutley to get the start in Week 8. If Sutton is a go, I like the matchup and can see him scoring as high as RB4. Slightly less optimistic about Rutley. They’ll go against Toronto’s 6th best Defense against the RB position.

Toronto receivers will be challenged against the third best D against the position. SJ Green is a must start, of course. Averaging 10 targets per game, with a floor in the double-digits. If Armanti Edwards doesn’t return this week, look for targets to go to Fuller and Paden. DeVier Posey is getting ready to come back from injury. Limit expectations if a backup QB getting the start.

Montreal sits ranked 6th in the league at the WR position. They’ll go against the 4th best D. I like the duo of Ernest Jackson and BJ Cunningham this week, both having three straight double-digit FPTS performances. Also look for Nik Lewis to continue to fill the safety valve roll for Durant.

Saturday Aug 12 530 PM MDT
Winnipeg BlueBombers at Hamilton Ti-Cats

Expect Nichols to have a fine outing against Hamilton, as most QBs have done. Hamilton is the worst in the league against QBs, giving up almost 30 FPTS per game.

One would think it crazy to start Zach Collaros. But on paper it’s not that terrible. Okay, it’s a little terrible. But look what he was able to do against Edmonton last week – 3 TDs and 23 FPTS, at his salary I’d take that all day long. However, I don’t see him consistently scoring 20 FPTS – this was his first time this season to exceed 18. Winnipeg currently sits 5th best against QBs.

Andrew Harris claims RB1 honours this week, going up against a Hamilton Defense 2nd worst against RBs, allowing over 17 FPTS per game.

Hamilton’s backfield has been a dumpster fire. CJ Gable has been getting the start lately but doesn’t have a single game over 9 FPTS. Schueurman only slightly better, with a 12 point performance but hasn’t been the feature back since Week 5. Winnipeg, however, is the WORST in the league against the backfield. An attractive matchup that I still can’t get behind.

You know the routine, load up on whoever is playing against Hamilton, worst in the league against WRs. So this week we have to start Darvin Adams, and Ryan Lankford if his salary doesn’t creep. He was our Value Play Of The Week, last week, and it paid off. I hope you were able to take advantage! And there may be some extreme value plays in Feoli-Gudino (73 rec yds in his last game) and Tyron Thorpe (averaging over 8 targets and 63 rec yds per game). I’m still waiting for the re-emergence of Clarence Denmark – when he’s on, he’s a Touchdown machine.

Hamilton receivers. Oh, Hamilton receivers. What can I possibly say. The numbers speak for themselves:
Tyms – 2.78 FPTS
Jones – 3.72 FPTS
Banks – 7.18 FPTS
Tasker – 5.70 FPTS
The lone bright spot has been Jalen Saunders, averaging 11.62 FPTS. Last week we saw Demarr Aultman get his first start which included a TD and almost 14 FPTS. Winnipeg gives up the 2nd most in the league to Receivers, so if they are going to have an emergence game, this is it.

Sunday Aug 13 600 PM MDT
BC Lions at Sask Roughriders

Kevin Glenn looked dead inside as he floundered his way to sub-5 point performance last week. He’ll get a second crack at it as the two teams go home-and-home. On paper, Glenn still has a good matchup – 4th most points at the QB position versus BC’s 3rd worst Defense. I expect a bit of a different game but am still going to temper expectations.

The other side of the ball is something to watch. Will Lulay continue to get the start or will it fall back on Jennings’ shoulders? If Lulay gets the start, he should start in your lineup as well. Over his last four games he’s averaged over 26 FPTS per game, with an incredible 20 point floor and ceiling well into the 30’s.

BC is currently the best team in the league against opposing RBs, limiting backfields to under 11 FPTS per game. Sit Cameron Marshall this week, despite his value salary. Can’t trust this matchup.

We are really going to have to watch the roster details for BC’s backfield. I can’t imagine JJohnson not starting, but last week we saw him sit the latter part of the game due to a Canadian Ratio issue. Should his carries not be vultured this week, I see JJ as a solid RB2 against a slightly worse than average SSK Defense.

Sask receivers continue to lead the way, best in the league. The rematch against BC is attractive on paper, with BC giving up the 4th most FPTS to WRs. Expect Duron Carter to continue to get targets. Roosevelt is a safe play every week. Robb Bagg’s usage is growing but he is not yet Fantasy relevant. Bakari Grant is an interesting value play, with four TDs in six games and averages double-digit FPTS.

As a core, BC’s receivers are scoring the 2nd fewest FPTS in the league. This is surprising! We saw speedster Chris Williams back in action last week. I’m projecting a ton of yards and score for him this week against an average Sask D. Bryan Burnham continues to impress and is becoming close to a safe bet. Manny Arceneaux continues to underwhelm, having scored double-digit FPTS only once this year.

 

Good luck in Week 8, everyone!

Week 8: Projections!

Projections are calculated using the player’s average FPTS of the current season, takes into account the strength/weakness of the matchup, plus adds/subtracts bonuses for other considerations such as – home or away, streaking performance (performance over the last 4 games only vs entire season), current team trends and injuries/support roster changes.

Please note the 2017 Fantasy Scoring system, down the left side-bar.

Week 8 QB Projections:

Mike Reilly 26.83
Travis Lulay 25.46
Matt Nichols 24.91
Trevor Harris 20.54
Ricky Ray 18.40
Kevin Glenn 17.78
Darian Durant 15.80
Zach Collaros 15.14
Jonathan Jennings 10.24
Brandon Bridge 4.46
Cody Fajardo 3.83
Jeremiah Masoli 3.35
Dan Lefevour 3.31
Ryan Lindley 2.13
Vernon Adams Jr 1.14
Alex Ross 1.13

Week 8 RB Projections:

NAME PROJ
Andrew Harris 18.95
Jeremiah Johnson 15.26
Tyrell Sutton 14.12
William Powell 12.52
LaDarius Perkins 12.40
Travon Van 10.51
CJ Gable 10.22
Brandon Rutley 9.97
Cameron Marshall 9.78
Mossis Madu 9.61
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 9.54
Chris Rainey 8.94
Martese Jackson 8.50
John White 7.44
Stefan Logan 7.13
Kendial Lawrence 7.06
Anthony Coombs 6.24
Ross Scheuerman 4.87
Greg Morris 4.84
Brendan Gillanders 4.76
Timothy Flanders 4.37
Brandon Whittaker 4.30
James Wilder 3.24
JC Beaulieu 3.17
Declan Cross 3.14

Week 8 WR Projections:

NAME PROJ
Greg Ellingson 16.58
SJ Green 16.40
Vidal Hazelton 16.19
Chris Williams 16.10
Darvin Adams 15.31
Namaan Roosevelt 15.19
Duron Carter 14.38
Bryan Burnham 14.28
Ernest Jackson 14.09
Brandon Zylstra 12.78
BJ Cunningham 12.67
Jalen Saunders 12.64
Ryan Lankford 12.46
Bryant Mitchell 12.43
Emmanuel Arceneaux 12.12
Brad Sinopoli 11.58
Bakari Grant 10.07
Luke Tasker 10.00
Brandon Banks 9.05
Armanti Edwards 8.84
Jasper Collins 8.61
Joshua Stangby 8.00
Nik Lewis 8.00
Khalil Paden 7.00
Jeff Fuller 6.00

Week 8: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets

NAME TAR
SJ Green 70
Brad Sinopoli 65
Greg Ellingson 64
Namaan Roosevelt 53
Luke Tasker 52
Marquay McDaniel 52
Darvin Adams 50
Bryan Burnham 50
Emmanuel Arceneaux 50
Duron Carter 49
Brandon Zylstra 47
Vidal Hazelton 46
Kamar Jorden (inj) 44
Bakari Grant 41
Armanti Edwards 41
Nik Lewis 40
DaVaris Daniels 38
BJ Cunningham 37
Nick Moore 37
Jalen Saunders 36

WR by Receptions

NAME REC
Brad Sinopoli 47
Greg Ellingson 44
SJ Green 43
Brandon Zylstra 39
Namaan Roosevelt 37
Emmanuel Arceneaux 35
Luke Tasker 34
Marquay McDaniel 34
Nik Lewis 34
Bryan Burnham 33
Vidal Hazelton 33
Bakari Grant 31
Armanti Edwards 31
Darvin Adams 30
Duron Carter 30
Kamar Jorden (inj) 28
BJ Cunningham 26
Nick Moore 26
Ernest Jackson 23
Weston Dressler (inj) 23

WR by Receiving Yards

NAME REC YDS
Greg Ellingson 702
SJ Green 673
Bryan Burnham 546
Brad Sinopoli 538
Brandon Zylstra 537
BJ Cunningham 475
Namaan Roosevelt 458
Vidal Hazelton 453
Nick Moore 430
Armanti Edwards 428
Marquay McDaniel 414
Kamar Jorden (inj) 403
Darvin Adams 386
Bakari Grant 381
Duron Carter 370
DaVaris Daniels 361
Jalen Saunders 358
Ernest Jackson 352
Emmanuel Arceneaux 346
Weston Dressler (inj) 342

WR by Receiving TDs

NAME REC TDS
Greg Ellingson 4
Vidal Hazelton 4
Kamar Jorden (inj) 4
Bakari Grant 4
Duron Carter 4
SJ Green 3
Brad Sinopoli 3
BJ Cunningham 3
Namaan Roosevelt 3
Marquay McDaniel 3
Darvin Adams 3
Emmanuel Arceneaux 3
Joshua Stangby 3
Bryan Burnham 2
DaVaris Daniels 2
Jalen Saunders 2
Ernest Jackson 2
Weston Dressler (inj) 2
Lemar Durant 2
DeVier Posey(inj) 2
Tiquan Underwood(inj) 2
Marken Michel 2
Bryant Mitchell 2
Caleb Holley 2
Clarence Denmark 2
Adarius Bowman (inj) 2
Ryan Lankford 2

 

Week 8: Running Back Stats

RB by Carries

NAME CAR
Jerome Messam 97
Jeremiah Johnson 68
Andrew Harris 65
Cameron Marshall 63
Travon Van 53
William Powell 52
Tyrell Sutton 51
James Wilder 36
Mossis Madu 29
Brandon Whittaker 27
Ross Scheuerman 23
Brandon Rutley 23
John White 20
LaDarius Perkins 19
CJ Gable 18
Chris Rainey 18
Brendan Gillanders 18
Roy Finch 14
Calvin McCarty 12
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 8

RB by Rushing Yards

NAME RUSH YDS
Jerome Messam 490
Jeremiah Johnson 417
Cameron Marshall 343
Tyrell Sutton 295
Andrew Harris 283
William Powell 272
Travon Van 207
James Wilder 164
Ross Scheuerman 145
Mossis Madu 134
Brandon Rutley 124
Brendan Gillanders 115
John White 112
CJ Gable 106
LaDarius Perkins 105
Brandon Whittaker 91
JC Beaulieu 91
Roy Finch 78
Chris Rainey 68
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 55

RB by Rushing TDs

NAME RUSH TDS
Jerome Messam 6
Jeremiah Johnson 5
Andrew Harris 4
Tyrell Sutton 2
William Powell 2
Travon Van 2
Cameron Marshall 1
Ross Scheuerman 1
Mossis Madu 1
John White 1
JC Beaulieu 1
Chris Rainey 1
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 1
Stefan Logan 1
Ante Milanovic-Litre 1

RB by Receiving Yards

NAME REC YDS
Anthony Coombs 379
Andrew Harris 318
Jeremiah Johnson 238
Chris Rainey 165
Cameron Marshall 159
William Powell 153
Jerome Messam 105
James Wilder 92
Brandon Whittaker 88
Patrick Lavoie 78
Ross Scheuerman 74
Terry Williams 74
Declan Cross 71
Tyrell Sutton 65
Brandon Rutley 63
CJ Gable 63
Travon Van 51
Calvin McCarty 50
Mossis Madu 49
Roy Finch 49

RB by Receiving TDs

NAME REC TDS
Jeremiah Johnson 2
Anthony Coombs 1
Chris Rainey 1
William Powell 1
Declan Cross 1
Mossis Madu 1

Week 8: Quarterback Stats

QB by Passing Yards

NAME PASS YDS
Ricky Ray 2421
Trevor Harris 2202
Bo Levi Mitchell 2081
Mike Reilly 1945
Kevin Glenn 1784
Matt Nichols 1757
Darian Durant 1740
Travis Lulay 1437
Zach Collaros 1425
Jonathan Jennings 853
Andrew Buckley 127
Brandon Bridge 124
Jeremiah Masoli 77
Cody Fajardo 75
Dan Lefevour 38
Alex Ross 7

QB by Passing TDs

NAME PASS TDS
Trevor Harris 14
Bo Levi Mitchell 13
Mike Reilly 11
Kevin Glenn 11
Matt Nichols 11
Ricky Ray 10
Darian Durant 8
Travis Lulay 8
Zach Collaros 6
Jonathan Jennings 2
Brandon Bridge 2
Andrew Buckley 1

QB by Rushing Yards

NAME RUSH YDS
Travis Lulay 103
Jonathan Jennings 87
Darian Durant 84
Andrew Buckley 78
Mike Reilly 75
Cody Fajardo 75
Matt Nichols 69
Jeremiah Masoli 58
Zach Collaros 49
Trevor Harris 46
Kevin Glenn 42
Dan Lefevour 37
Ryan Lindley 20
Ricky Ray 14
Alex Ross 9
Vernon Adams Jr 8
Brandon Bridge 3

QB by Rushing TDs

NAME RUSH TDS
Travis Lulay 5
Mike Reilly 4
Cody Fajardo 2
Kevin Glenn 2
Dan Lefevour 2
Ryan Lindley 2
Andrew Buckley 1
Matt Nichols 1
Jeremiah Masoli 1
Vernon Adams Jr 1

Week 8: Wide Receiver Rankings

Wide Receiver by Average Fantasy Points

NAME FPTS
Demarr Aultman 13.95
Greg Ellingson 13.46
DeVier Posey (inj) 13.33
Ryan Lankford 12.32
SJ Green 12.19
Kamar Jorden (inj) 11.73
Jalen Saunders 11.62
BJ Cunningham 11.57
Vidal Hazelton 11.55
Duron Carter 10.83
Bryant Mitchell 10.77
Namaan Roosevelt 10.63
Bakari Grant 10.52
Brandon Zylstra 10.10
Brad Sinopoli 9.97
Marquay McDaniel 9.90
Weston Dressler (inj) 9.84
Marken Michel 9.76
Darvin Adams 9.63
Bryan Burnham 9.51
Adarius Bowman (inj) 9.10
Armanti Edwards 8.69
Joshua Stangby 8.39
Diontae Spencer 8.09
Ernest Jackson 8.02
DaVaris Daniels 8.02

Week 8: Running Back Rankings

Running Back by Average FPTS

NAME FPTS
Jeremiah Johnson 15.98
Andrew Harris 13.68
Jerome Messam 12.79
Tyrell Sutton 12.70
William Powell 12.10
Shaq Murray-Lawrence 11.50
Roy Finch 11.10
Chris Rainey 10.78
Mossis Madu 10.10
Travon Van 9.60
Ross Scheuerman 9.30
Cameron Marshall 9.20
Martese Jackson 8.86
Ante Milanovic-Litre 8.60
Brandon Rutley 8.35
Terry Williams 7.83
LaDarius Perkins 7.68
Stefan Logan 7.47
John White (inj) 6.80
Anthony Coombs 6.50
Kendial Lawrence 6.45
CJ Gable 5.63
Brendan Gillanders 5.00
Greg Morris 4.55
Brandon Whittaker 4.48

Week 8: Quarterback Rankings

Quarterback  by Average Fantasy Points

NAME FPTS
Mike Reilly 24.88
Matt Nichols 19.86
Kevin Glenn 19.59
Travis Lulay 19.30
Trevor Harris 19.24
Bo Levi Mitchell 18.46
Ricky Ray 18.03
Darian Durant 15.67
Zach Collaros 11.65
Jonathan Jennings 10.71
Brandon Bridge 4.42
Cody Fajardo 3.75
Andrew Buckley 3.75
Dan Lefevour 2.87
Jeremiah Masoli 2.58
Ryan Lindley 2.33
Alex Ross 1.18
Vernon Adams Jr 1.13
Drew Tate -2.00