Week 4: Fantasy Projections

*edit* slight tweaks for Matt Nichols starting in place of Chris Streveler

Quarterback Projections:

Name Team PROJ
Reilly, Mike EDM 26.84
Harris, Trevor OTT 21.84
Masoli, Jeremiah HAM 21.82
Nichols, Matt WPG 21.60
Jennings, Jonathon BC 15.80
Franklin, James TOR 13.98
Willy, Drew MTL 13.12
Watford, David SSK 11.81
Bridge, Brandon SSK 11.16
Davis, Dominique OTT 3.86
Mathews, Jeff MTL 1.47

Running Back Projections:

Name Team PROJ
Powell, William OTT 22.98
Harris, Andrew WPG 22.65
Gable, CJ EDM 15.86
Sutton, Tyrell MTL 14.22
Wilder Jr, James TOR 14.13
Johnson, Jeremiah BC 13.37
Rainey, Chris BC 11.28
Timmis, Mercer HAM 10.16
Lafrance, Kienan WPG 9.59
Thigpen, Marcus SSK 9.49
Jackson, Martese TOR 7.41
Logan, Stefan MTL 6.99
Cross, Declan TOR 6.22
Robinson, Jordan EDM 5.82
Moore, Spencer SSK 5.34
Mason, Tre SSK 5.30
Whitlock, Nikita HAM 4.03
Messam, Jerome SSK 3.89

Wide Receiver Projections:

Name Team PROJ
Ellingson, Greg OTT 20.38
Walker, Derel EDM 20.89
Williams, Duke EDM 17.74
Tasker, Luke HAM 17.36
Toliver, Terrence HAM 16.57
Spencer, Diontae OTT 15.88
Green, S.J. TOR 15.33
Banks, Brandon HAM 14.25
Adams, Darvin WPG 16.75
Sinopoli, Brad OTT 13.86
Arceneaux, Emmanuel BC 13.21
Burnham, Bryan BC 12.68
Dressler, Weston WPG 15.56
Roosevelt, Naaman SSK 12.36
Williams, Chris MTL 12.15
Carter, Duron SSK 12.06
Stafford, Kenny EDM 11.74
Watson, Cory BC 11.44
Thomas Erlington, Sean HAM 11.37
Saunders, Jalen HAM 10.95
Edwards, Armanti TOR 10.64
Cunningham, B.J. MTL 10.39
Evans, Shaquelle SSK 9.70
Demski, Nic WPG 9.69
Jones, Mike HAM 9.53
Simonise, Rashaun WPG 9.15
Holley, Caleb SSK 8.92
Jones, Christion SSK 7.87
Jackson, Ernest MTL 7.86
Wolitarsky, Drew WPG 7.75
Lewis, Eugene MTL 7.29
Collins, Ricky BC 7.06

Week 4: Matchup Analysis

Hamilton Ti-Cats @ Sask Roughriders

Let’s start with Masoli. Pretty much a 16 point floor with a 30 point ceiling. You have to start him against the lowly Roughriders. They gave over 20 FPTS to Ottawa. Even Montreal scored 13. Masoli should do well.

Hamilton’s backfield…. at this point is anyone’s guess. Some may be tempted to go Timmis, and chase the Fantasy Points. Two TD’s in each of his last two games, sounds tempting. Just not sure it can continue to play out that way. Especially with the emergence of Thomas Erlington. And I’m still waiting to see some John White! Alex Green is due to return. Whoever gets the carries should be pretty successful. Sask is giving up an average of 26 FPTS to backfields.

Plenty of options for Hamilton receivers. Saunders, Banks, Tasker and Toliver are all averaging over 14 FPTS per game, with Tasker leading the way at 17 FPTS per game. Surprisingly, Sask is giving up the 2nd fewest FPTS to receivers.

At the helm for Saskatchewan, it has been announced that Brandon Bridge will once again get the start. He was pulled from the game last week after tossing two picks, giving Fantasy Players a whopping 0.94 FPTS. Avoid the situation this week. Bridge and Watford are too risky to play.

And how do we go about picking a running back from Sask? Thigpen was to be the darling of week 3 and didn’t produce squat. Tre Mason lead the way with 6 FPTS. Avoid.

And until the QB situation improves, how can one recommend a Sask receiver? Roosevelt has hit 20+ FPTS only once this season. No one else is even into double digits. We miss you, Duron Carter! Hamilton is in the top 3 when it comes to giving up FPTS to both Receivers and Running Backs.

Ottawa RedBlacks @ Montreal Alouettes

Going heavy on Ottawa seems to be the safe play of the week. How can they not take complete advantage of a terrible Montreal D, likely to start a backup QB?

Trevor Harris is locked firmly into my lineup. His stats don’t look that great on paper after a disappointing performance against CGY last week, but he’s sure to bounce back against the lowly Alouettes. He’ll get plenty of time on the field this week. However keep in mind, Ottawa is the kind of team that will sit and rest their QB if the game gets out of reach.

William Powell? He’s in your lineup as well. He’ll get plenty of touches as Ottawa is expected to control the clock for the duration of the game.

And Ellingson is in your lineup if you can afford the salary. Spencer would be an obvious start. Sinopoli looks to be a tremendous value play. Get these guys going!

Edmonton Eskimos @ Toronto Argos

Mike Reilly? Nuff said.

Wow, did CJ Gable ever get it going against BC in Week 3. Watch for more of the same against the Argo’s. If you expect Edmonton to run up the score like I do, Gable should get you plenty of those garbage time points. Toronto has not been overly effective against the run, giving 23 FPTS to backfields, on average. 3rd worst in the league.

Derel Walker, Duke Williams. And the emergence of Kenny Stafford as a decent salary play. Toronto is currently giving up the 2nd most FPTS to receivers. Get at least one of these guys in your lineup.

James Franklin will get the start for the Argo’s. This is the exact reason they traded for him. He’s touted as been a CFL caliber starter behind Mike Reilly. This is his time to shine. Edmonton has not been great on D. Currently 4th worst against QB’s. Franklin will have a very tempting salary for Week 4. It’s a bit of a gamble play in my opinion, I’d like to watch him for a week for two.  But if you’re a gambler, I say go for it.  He does have experience in this league.

Will James Wilder Jr finally get it going against this Edmonton run defense currently giving up almost 22 FPTS to backfields? It’s a decent opportunity for him if the Argo’s can keep the game close. I just don’t like his usage numbers so far this season – averaging less than 8 touches per game and 4 receptions. Not enough to get those FPTS and no touchdowns on the season so far. I suspect with a backup QB they’ll rely on him a bit more going forward.

And I just can’t get behind Toronto receivers yet this season. Even SJ Green… not a single double-digit fantasy scorer to be found in Toronto. The entire core is scoring less than 25 FPTS per game, worst in the league. We’ll see in the coming weeks if Franklin is able to inject some life.

BC Lions @ Winnipeg BlueBombers

This game really interests me. Hate that we have to wait all the way to Saturday night to see this one play out.

Jennings looked good to start last week against the Eskimos, then things really fell apart. I would look for him to improve slightly in what could be a see-saw battle. Winnipeg is merely average against QBs so far this year.

Jeremiah Johnson continues to lead the backfield for BC. Averaging 11 touches per game isn’t a lot, but the next highest usage for BC’s backfield only has two touches all season ( Rainey ). So Johnson is locked firmly into the lead role. If BC can stay in the game, I could see him doing similar to his 17 FPTS performance against Edmonton. If BC falls back in this game, I would project his performance closer to 13-14 FPTS.

Not a lot to brag about when it comes to BC’s receiving core. Much like Toronto we don’t have a single double-digit performer. Arceneaux? Burnham? I really hope your QB starts finding you guys. Until then, risky plays with some great upside – Winnipeg is currently the WORST in the league against Receivers.

*BIG UPDATE * Matt Nichols has been removed from the IR list after the minimum 4 games.  He has been announced as the Starter for Week 4!

Andrew Harris. In the new PPR format, how are we not starting him every week? BC is dead last in the league against backfields. Get him in your lineup and leave him there all season.

Not so hot on Winnipeg receivers. Dressler has been a favorite target and getting opportunity but the FPTS are just not stacking up. Bowman is a non factor, Wolitarsky was kept off the sheet completely last week. The best thing Darvin Adams has done this season has been as a QB, not a WR. * Update with Nichols returning, Dressler and Adams get a bump in value.  I now like Demski as a value play.

Week 4: Starting Rosters

Note: All rosters are confirmed official one day before gameday, and will be updated as teams release their depth charts.

BC Lions ( confirmed ):
QB: Jonathon Jennings
RB: Jeremiah Johnson
FB: Lumbala
SB: Emmanuel Arceneaux (boundry), Cory Watson, Bryan Burnham
WR: Ricky Collins Jr (boundry), Shaq Johnson,
PR, KR: Rainey

Edmonton Eskimos ( confirmed ):
QB: Mike Reilly
RB: CJ Gable
FB: Calvin McCarty
SB: Duke Williams (boundry), Natey Adjei, Behar
WR: Derel Walker (boundry), Stafford
PR, KR: Robinson

Calgary Stampeders ( projected ):
QB: Bo Levi Mitchell
RB: Don Jackson
FB: William Langlais
SB: Eric Rogers (boundry), Kamar Jorden, Brescacin
WR: DaVaris Daniels (boundry), Begelton

Sask Roughriders ( confirmed ):
QB: Brandon Bridge
RB: Marcus Thigpen
FB: Spencer Moore
SB: Naaman Roosevelt (boundry), Williams-Lambert, Caleb Holley
WR: Evans (boundry), Stanford
PR, KR:

Winnipeg BlueBombers ( confirmed ):
QB: Matt Nichols – confirmed
RB: Andrew Harris
FB: Miller
SB: Weston Dressler (boundry), Nic Demski, Adarius Bowman
WR: Darvin Adams (boundry), Wolitarsky
KR, PR: Kevi Fogg

Hamilton Ti-Cats ( confirmed ):
QB: Jeremiah Masoli
RB: Whitlock
FB:
SB: Mike Jones (boundry), Luke Tasker, Jalen Saunders
WR: Brandon Banks (boundry), Terrence Toliver
PR, KR: Lawrence, Banks

Toronto Argos ( projected ):
QB: James Franklin
RB: James Wilder Jr
FB: Declan Cross
SB: SJ Green, Armanti Edwards, Jimmy Ralph
WR: Noel, Malcolm Williams
PR, KR: Martese Jackson

Ottawa RedBlacks ( confirmed ):
QB: Trevor Harris
RB: William Powell
FB: Beaulieu
SB: Thomas II (boundry), Brad Sinopoli, Greg Ellingson
WR: Diontae Spencer (boundry), R. Harris
PR, KR: Diontae Spencer

Montreal Alouettes ( confirmed ):
QB: Jeff Matthews
RB: Tyrell Sutton
FB: Lavoie
SB: BJ Cunningham, Ernest Jackson, Eugene Lewis
WR: Chris Williams,  C. Harper
KR,PR: Stefan Logan

Week 4: Fantasy Points For/Against Per Position

FPTS For:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is scoring at each position.  Higher numbers are better. For example, Saskatchewan QBs are only averaging a miserable 9.47 FPTS per game. Calgary’s backfield is averaging over 24 FPTS per game.

FPTS Against:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is giving up to each position.  Lower numbers are better. For example, QBs going up against Calgary are only able to score an average of 12.99 FPTS. WRs facing Winnipeg are scoring over 66.58 FPTS, on average per game.

Week 4: Start/Sit HeatMap

Start/Sit Heatmap is based on average performance at that position, versus strength/weakness of the current week’s matchup.
Green means start with confidence, Red means beware!

Week 4: Season Fantasy Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points:

Name AVG FPTS
Reilly, Mike 29.73
Streveler, Chris 24.37
Masoli, Jeremiah 21.17
Mitchell, Bo Levi 18.19
Jennings, Jonathon 15.19
Harris, Trevor 12.40
Willy, Drew 10.72
Franklin, James 10.34
Collaros, Zach 8.28
Arbuckle, Nick 7.55
Watford, David 6.42
Fajardo, Cody 6.10
Bennett, Bryan 5.94
Ray, Ricky 5.54
Davis, Dominique 3.02
Bridge, Brandon 2.72
Mathews, Jeff 1.42
Ross, Alex 0.00

RB by Average Fantasy Points:

Name AVG FPTS
Powell, William 20.45
Harris, Andrew 17.73
Jackson, Don 14.37
Gable, CJ 13.83
Timmis, Mercer 13.53
Wilder Jr, James 12.70
Johnson, Jeremiah 12.33
Lafrance, Kienan 12.30
Rainey, Chris 11.03
Sutton, Tyrell 10.50
Williams, Terry 9.58
Jackson, Martese 8.45
Logan, Stefan 7.97
Cross, Declan 7.10
Messam, Jerome 6.50
Robinson, Jordan 5.08
Moore, Spencer 4.40
Mason, Tre 4.37
Thigpen, Marcus 3.70
Whitlock, Nikita 3.00
Beaulieu, Jean-Cristophe 2.85
Lavoie, Patrick 2.30

WR by Average Fantasy Points:

Name AVG FPTS
Walker, Derel 20.17
Ellingson, Greg 20.05
Williams, Duke 18.93
Banks, Brandon 18.13
Tasker, Luke 17.00
Rogers, Eric 16.37
Toliver, Terrence 16.00
Spencer, Diontae 15.63
Jorden, Kamar 15.15
Williams, Chris 14.93
Saunders, Jalen 13.93
Roosevelt, Naaman 12.93
Stafford, Kenny 12.53
Daniels, DaVaris 11.90
Dressler, Weston 11.53
Cunningham, B.J. 10.20
Evans, Shaquelle 10.15
Wolitarsky, Drew 9.87
Sinopoli, Brad 9.70
Adams, Darvin 9.25
Watson, Cory 8.95
Demski, Nic 8.90
Arceneaux, Emmanuel 8.80
Jones, Christion 8.23
Begelton, Reginald 7.55
Jones, Mike 7.03
Jackson, Ernest 6.47
Williams-Lambert, Jordan 6.47
Holley, Caleb 6.20
Lewis, Eugene 6.00

Week 4: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Receptions, with Targets and Receiving Yards:

Name Rec Targets Yds3
Banks, Brandon 21 32 247
Walker, Derel 19 24 299
Saunders, Jalen 17 24 248
Tasker, Luke 16 18 230
Jorden, Kamar 14 22 192
Williams, Duke 14 27 308
Williams, Chris 14 23 250
Ellingson, Greg 14 22 201
Stafford, Kenny 12 20 196
Roosevelt, Naaman 12 25 129
Dressler, Weston 12 21 153
Rogers, Eric 11 19 201
Daniels, DaVaris 11 17 187
Cunningham, B.J. 11 19 136
Demski, Nic 10 16 79
Sinopoli, Brad 10 14 114
Toliver, Terrence 10 15 160
Begelton, Reginald 9 12 126
Spencer, Diontae 9 15 93
Jackson, Ernest 8 11 114
Bowman, Adarius 8 16 70
Burnham, Bryan 7 11 44
Arceneaux, Emmanuel 7 9 106
Jones, Mike 7 10 141
Edwards, Armanti 7 10 68
Tyms, Brian 7 12 55
Green, S.J. 7 18 71
Evans, Shaquelle 7 12 133
Behar, Nathaniel 6 8 62
Lewis, Eugene 6 9 57
Williams-Lambert, Jordan 6 10 74
Holley, Caleb 6 11 126
Adams, Darvin 6 11 107

WR by Receiving Touchdowns:

Name TD3
Rogers, Eric 3
Wolitarsky, Drew 3
Walker, Derel 2
Tasker, Luke 2
Jorden, Kamar 2
Williams, Duke 2
Roosevelt, Naaman 2
Banks, Brandon 1
Williams, Chris 1
Ellingson, Greg 1
Stafford, Kenny 1
Dressler, Weston 1
Daniels, DaVaris 1
Cunningham, B.J. 1
Demski, Nic 1
Toliver, Terrence 1
Spencer, Diontae 1
Lewis, Eugene 1
Williams-Lambert, Jordan 1
Adams, Darvin 1
Watson, Cory 1
Adjei, Natey 1

Week 4: Running Back Stats

RB by Carries, with Rushing Yards and Rushing Touchdowns:

Name Car Rush Yds Rush TD
Harris, Andrew 43 201 1
Gable, CJ 41 241 1
Jackson, Don 36 294 2
Powell, William 32 217 1
Timmis, Mercer 30 166 4
Sutton, Tyrell 30 138 0
Messam, Jerome 28 100 0
Williams, Terry 23 118 0
Johnson, Jeremiah 21 116 1
Mason, Tre 19 89 0
Wilder Jr, James 15 76 0
Lafrance, Kienan 10 50 1

RB by Receptions, with Receiving Yards and Receiving Touchdowns:

Name Rec Rec Yds Rec TD
Harris, Andrew 12 91 1
Sutton, Tyrell 12 77 0
Gable, CJ 9 24 0
Wilder Jr, James 8 98 0
Cross, Declan 6 22 1
Logan, Stefan 5 2 0
Powell, William 4 32 1
Johnson, Jeremiah 4 18 0
Moore, Spencer 4 42 0
Lavoie, Patrick 4 29 0
Mason, Tre 3 32 0
Whitlock, Nikita 3 10 0
Rainey, Chris 3 26 0
Beaulieu, Jean-Cristophe 3 27 0
Messam, Jerome 2 10 0
Thigpen, Marcus 2 1 0
McCarty, Calvin 2 11 0
Jackson, Don 1 7 0
Williams, Terry 1 1 0

Week 4: Quarterback Stats

QB by Completions, with Attempts and Passing Yards:

Name Team Comp Att Pass Yds
Masoli, Jeremiah HAM 75 106 1045
Reilly, Mike EDM 74 106 1020
Mitchell, Bo Levi CGY 56 93 872
Streveler, Chris WPG 54 86 570
Willy, Drew MTL 49 76 549
Harris, Trevor OTT 39 65 480
Ray, Ricky TOR 34 54 307
Jennings, Jonathon BC 33 48 382
Collaros, Zach SSK 22 35 309
Bridge, Brandon SSK 21 40 256
Mathews, Jeff MTL 11 17 116
Watford, David SSK 10 22 108
Franklin, James TOR 9 14 67
Davis, Dominique OTT 5 7 41
Bennett, Bryan WPG 3 4 71

QB by Passing Touchdowns, with Interceptions:

Name TD Int
Reilly, Mike 6 4
Mitchell, Bo Levi 6 2
Streveler, Chris 6 2
Masoli, Jeremiah 4 3
Willy, Drew 3 1
Harris, Trevor 2 2
Jennings, Jonathon 2 1
Collaros, Zach 2 2
Watford, David 1 2
Franklin, James 1 0
Davis, Dominique 1 0
Ray, Ricky 0 1
Bridge, Brandon 0 3
Mathews, Jeff 0 1

QB by Rushing Yards, with Carries:

Name Rush Yds Car
Streveler, Chris 183 22
Jennings, Jonathon 91 14
Reilly, Mike 84 24
Masoli, Jeremiah 77 11
Bridge, Brandon 32 7
Bennett, Bryan 31 1
Willy, Drew 22 6
Watford, David 21 5
Franklin, James 20 7
Mitchell, Bo Levi 17 3
Harris, Trevor 16 4