Week 5: Matchup Analysis

With only 3 games on tap for the weekend, pickins’ are going to be a bit slimmer than normal.  Pitter Patter, Let’s Get At ‘Er!

Calgary Stampeders @ Ottawa RedBlacks

Let’s start with Bo.  251 through the air with 2 TDs and a pick, before the Bye in Week 3 against this Ottawa D ranked 2nd best in the league against QBs.  Bo only has one monster game, against Toronto, this year. He’ll be back to Chorin’ this week. I see a typically “Bo” performance, projecting 17-18FPTS.

Calgary’s backfield looks to be a true two-headed monster. Don Jackson is averaging 12 carries per game, ahead of Terry Williams’ 8 carries.  I’m going with Jackson here, as he makes more with his touches – 8 yards per versus Williams’ 5. Jackson also catches ‘slightly’ more out of the backfield but neither are much of a passing threat.  Ottawa is currently 3rd best in the league against backfields.  Don Jackson has delivered exactly 14 FPTS in each of his last three games. *Edit* Terry Williams is not listed on the Depth Chart for Week 5.  Don Jackson should see an increased workload.

Bo does a great job of spreading the ball around to his receivers.  Eric Rogers is rolling, averaging over 23 FPTS in his last two games. In salary leagues, you’ll pay for him but he is a guaranteed Sniper. Top cheddar, bar downskis. Daniels and Jorden will get theirs as well, safe plays.  Ottawa is currently middle of the road against Wide Outs. *UPDATE* Eric Rogers is out for this weekend, being replaced in the boundry slot by Begelton.  Makes him a huge value sleeper play and likely gives a bump to Davaris Daniels, and slightly to Kamar Jorden.

Now, what do we think about Trevor Harris?  Calgary absolutely shut him down in Week 3, only to see him have a fantastic performance against Montreal in Week 4. I advise caution for any QB going up against the Stamps, but Trevor should do better than his 3.4 FPTS in their last matchup.  However, for his salary I’d be tempted to look elsewhere this week. Calgary’s D is the clear cut number one against QB’s surrendering an average of only 12.9 points to QBs per game.

So how about Powell in the backfield?  Calgary’s D is once again 1st in this category, giving up only 16 FPTS to backfields per game. I would temper expectations for Powell this week but I’m still giving him about 80 yards on the ground and a score.  I think if Ottawa wants to stay in this game they really have to get the ground game going and keep Bo off the field. Easier said than done.

Sinopoli broke out for the RedBlacks against the Alouettes last week, while Ellingson looked more human and Spencer disappointed.  Any of these guys have the ability to go off on any given week, but again, watch for regressions against a Calgary Defense 2nd best in the league against Wide Outs.

Toronto Argos @ Edmonton Eskimos

James Franklin and the Argos upset the Eskimos in Week 4.  I think the Week 5 rematch will be an amazing game.

Franklin gave us a mediocre passing game against Edmonton, completing 66 percent of his passes.  A rushing Touchdown saved his Fantasy day.  I can see more of the same against a disappointing and undisciplined  Edmonton defense – giving up the 3rd most FPTS to QBs.  If his salary doesn’t jump too much, this might be the value play of the week.

James Wilder Jr really got his season going against the Eskimos. The Argos relied on him heavily, and should continue to do so.  Are you putting this guy in your lineup?  Does a duck with a boner drag weeds? He gave us almost 150 combined yards and a score against Edmonton, who has been giving up the 2nd most FPTS to backfields.

Well, it would seem I had good things to say about Toronto’s QB and RB situations. But what about their Receiving core? Still not a single WR with double-digit averages.  Armanti Edwards leads the way with under 8 FPTS per game. Yikes.  Where is the SJ Green we were all impressed with last year?  Until I see a spark, I’ll be avoiding.

Back to Mike Reilly.  His WORST performance of the year against the Argos was still worth 17 FPTS. But at his salary, you need more from him.  I think owners will get exactly that in the re-match. No way in hell this Certified Beautician doesn’t get you back into the 20’s in Week 5.  Toronto gives up the 4th most FPTS to QBs.

Toronto is currently giving up more FPTS to backfields than Edmonton is scoring. To me that means opportunity for CJ Gable.  Only 62 combined yards against TO last week, but I think the pace of the rematch will get him more involved.

If you’re not loading your team up with Edmonton receivers, you need to give your balls a tug.  Toronto is currently dead last in the league against opposing receivers, giving up over 60 FPTS per game to Wide Outs.  Walker and Williams lead the way.  Kenny Stafford has emerged and Bryant Mitchell is back.  If you’re in deep leagues, grab those latter two off the waivers!

Winnipeg BlueBombers @ BC Lions

Matt Nichols is back.  The Bombers blew out the Lions in Week 4, but it didn’t translate to FPTS for Nichols, especially with Streveler coming off the bench for goaline plays, vulturing a pair of TDs.  Nichols,  much like Bo Levi, never handle short yardage so there is always risk of losing out on that precious TD.  That said, the Bombers should be able to easily handle the Lions in the rematch and for lack of better options this week, Nichols may be a decent play. BC is second worst in the league against QBs.

Andrew Harris is locked in your lineup, right?  Is a duck’s ass water-tight? That’s a Texas-sized 10-4! He’s averaging over 77 rushing yards and close to another 30 through the air.  Valuable PPR points. And this week he faces a bad BC Defense, dead last against RBs.

Darvin Adams is back! Weston Dressler is back! Even Nic Demski is getting in on this party.  With Nichols back, these guys become viable fantasy starts. In salary leagues, take advantage before their price skyrockets. Darvin Adams is a lock at his salary.

Anyone thinking of starting Jonathan Jennings need to stomp the brakes, put that idea right through the windshield. We saw one or two decent quarters of football from him so far this season. He hasn’t had double-digit FPTS since the opener against Montreal.  He gave us less than 1 point before getting the hook last week. Something needs to change in Vancouver. I hope I’ll get to replace this line with an update of a new starting QB…  I do get to update with a new QB!  Lulay is slated to start!

Jeremiah Johnson has been the sole stand-out for the Lions, and really the only valuable Fantasy option, perhaps with Chris Rainey. Johnson has averaged 18 FPTS in his last two games. Winnipeg gives up the 3rd most FPTS to running backs.

And as I said last week, without a performing QB at the helm, guys like Arceneaux and Burnham just haven’t found their stride.   Risky plays every week. – With Lulay getting the start this week, if he looks at all like his pre-injury self, you should seriously consider getting Manny and Burnham in your lineups at their current salaries.  The Lions get behind in this one, watch for Lulay to start slinging it and rack up those garbage time points!

Sit back, relax, crack open a Puppers and enjoy Week 5. Good luck, everyone!

Week 5: Fantasy Projections

QB Projections:

Name Team Floor Median Ceiling Final Projection
Reilly, Mike EDM 16.56 26.26 36.62 26.68
Mitchell, Bo Levi CGY 12.89 19.22 25.74 17.44
Nichols, Matt WPG 9.95 10.48 24.21 16.85
Franklin, James TOR 8.54 14.89 20.20 16.84
Harris, Trevor OTT 9.38 14.54 26.59 15.15
Jennings, Jonathon BC 3.25 10.91 18.85 11.05
Fajardo, Cody BC 2.58 6.96 8.85 7.40
Streveler, Chris WPG 4.51 27.37 37.64 5.20
Arbuckle, Nick CGY 2.25 7.33 9.65 4.75
Davis, Dominique OTT 0.40 3.02 5.64 1.86

RB Projections:

Name Team Floor Median Ceiling Final Projection
Harris, Andrew WPG 9.30 17.95 26.60 22.51
Wilder Jr, James TOR 8.56 18.05 25.52 20.82
Johnson, Jeremiah BC 7.60 13.30 19.00 15.39
Gable, CJ EDM 7.20 15.70 23.20 15.36
Powell, William OTT 11.80 19.80 21.20 14.17
Jackson, Don CGY 12.20 14.35 16.54 13.23
Rainey, Chris BC 8.95 14.90 19.85 12.85
Williams, Terry CGY 5.05 10.48 15.90 not playing
Jackson, Martese TOR 0.45 4.83 12.20 7.24
Cross, Declan TOR 3.20 7.10 11.00 6.91
Lafrance, Kienan WPG 2.50 7.40 12.30 6.90

WR Projections:

Name Team Floor Median Ceiling Final Projection
Walker, Derel EDM 10.70 21.45 31.20 21.01
Williams, Duke EDM 9.90 18.15 24.90 19.41
Rogers, Eric CGY 8.85 16.20 30.10 17.64
Adams, Darvin WPG 6.54 8.80 15.60 16.40
Daniels, DaVaris CGY 6.65 10.80 17.60 14.64
Jorden, Kamar CGY 7.90 13.88 18.85 13.55
Dressler, Weston WPG 4.70 11.55 18.40 13.33
Edwards, Armanti TOR 4.30 6.90 10.50 12.99
Stafford, Kenny EDM 5.50 12.85 19.20 12.96
Ellingson, Greg OTT 8.90 15.80 21.70 12.23
Sinopoli, Brad OTT 5.56 18.90 31.80 11.57
Green, S.J. TOR 4.00 6.05 8.10 11.52
Spencer, Diontae OTT 7.20 15.55 21.90 11.51
Burnham, Bryan BC 3.10 6.45 9.80 9.87
Arceneaux, Emmanuel BC 3.20 6.35 9.50 9.46
Demski, Nic WPG 4.10 7.90 11.70 8.10
Mitchell, Bryant EDM 1.90 1.90 1.90 6.81
Begelton, Reginald CGY 5.00 7.33 9.65 6.75
Noel, Llevi TOR 1.35 5.73 10.10 6.74
Tyms, Brian TOR 4.30 6.25 8.20 6.63
Johnson, Shaquille BC 2.10 4.35 6.60 6.55
Simonise, Rashaun WPG 3.25 5.54 8.40 6.21
Watson, Cory BC 4.40 6.75 9.10 6.14
Wolitarsky, Drew WPG 4.80 12.70 20.60 6.05
Collins, Ricky BC 3.70 5.10 6.50 5.90
Thomas, Noel OTT 3.20 7.20 11.65 5.54
Ralph, Jimmy TOR 3.10 3.80 4.50 5.25
Lankford, Ryan WPG 4.65 4.65 4.65 4.89
Brescacin, Juwan CGY 1.70 4.20 6.70 4.29
Adjei, Natey EDM 2.70 6.60 10.50 3.98
Bowman, Adarius WPG 6.20 7.50 8.80 3.94

Week 5: Start/Sit HeatMap

Start/Sit Heatmap is based on average performance at that position, versus strength/weakness of the current week’s matchup.
Green means start with confidence, Red means beware!

Week 5: Fantasy Points For/Against Per Position

FPTS For:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is scoring at each position.  Higher numbers are better. For example, Saskatchewan QBs are only averaging a miserable 10.09 FPTS per game. Calgary’s backfield is averaging over 24.5 FPTS per game.

FPTS Against:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is giving up to each position.  Lower numbers are better. For example, QBs going up against Calgary are only able to score an average of 12.99 FPTS. WRs facing Toronto are scoring over 60.2 FPTS, on average per game.

Week 5: Starting Rosters

Note: All rosters are confirmed official one day before gameday, and will be updated as teams release their depth charts.

BC Lions ( confirmed ):
QB: Travis Lulay
RB: Jeremiah Johnson
FB: Lumbala
SB: Emmanuel Arceneaux (boundry), Cory Watson, Bryan Burnham
WR: Ricky Collins Jr (boundry), Shaq Johnson,
PR, KR: Rainey

Edmonton Eskimos ( confirmed ):
QB: Mike Reilly
RB: CJ Gable
FB: Calvin McCarty
SB: Duke Williams (boundry), Natey Adjei, Behar
WR: Derel Walker (boundry), Stafford
PR, KR: Robinson

Calgary Stampeders ( confirmed ):
QB: Bo Levi Mitchell
RB: Don Jackson
FB: William Langlais
SB: Begelton (boundry), Kamar Jorden, Brescacin
WR: DaVaris Daniels (boundry), Durant

Sask Roughriders ( BYE ):
QB: Brandon Bridge
RB: Marcus Thigpen
FB: Spencer Moore
SB: Naaman Roosevelt (boundry), Williams-Lambert, Caleb Holley
WR: Evans (boundry), Stanford
PR, KR:

Winnipeg BlueBombers ( projected ):
QB: Matt Nichols
RB: Andrew Harris
FB: Miller
SB: Weston Dressler (boundry), Nic Demski, Adarius Bowman
WR: Darvin Adams (boundry), Wolitarsky
KR, PR: Kevi Fogg

Hamilton Ti-Cats ( BYE ):
QB: Jeremiah Masoli
RB: Whitlock
FB:
SB: Mike Jones (boundry), Luke Tasker, Jalen Saunders
WR: Brandon Banks (boundry), Terrence Toliver
PR, KR: Lawrence, Banks

Toronto Argos ( confirmed ):
QB: James Franklin
RB: James Wilder Jr
FB: Declan Cross
SB: SJ Green, Jimmy Ralph, Armanti Edwards
WR: Noel, Malcolm Williams
PR, KR: Martese Jackson

Ottawa RedBlacks ( confirmed ):
QB: Trevor Harris
RB: William Powell
FB: Beaulieu
SB: Thomas II (boundry), Brad Sinopoli, Greg Ellingson
WR: Diontae Spencer (boundry), R. Harris
PR, KR: Diontae Spencer

Montreal Alouettes ( BYE ):
QB: Jeff Matthews
RB: Tyrell Sutton
FB: Lavoie
SB: BJ Cunningham, Ernest Jackson, Eugene Lewis
WR: Chris Williams,  C. Harper
KR,PR: Stefan Logan

Week 5: Season Fantasy Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points:

Name Team AVG FPTS
Reilly, Mike EDM 26.78
Streveler, Chris WPG 22.55
Masoli, Jeremiah HAM 19.71
Mitchell, Bo Levi CGY 18.19
Harris, Trevor OTT 16.83
Franklin, James TOR 13.49
Willy, Drew MTL 10.72
Nichols, Matt WPG 10.48
Jennings, Jonathon BC 10.39
Collaros, Zach SSK 8.28
Arbuckle, Nick CGY 7.55
Fajardo, Cody BC 6.96
Watford, David SSK 6.65
Mathews, Jeff MTL 6.05
Bennett, Bryan WPG 5.94
Ray, Ricky TOR 5.54
Bridge, Brandon SSK 3.49
Davis, Dominique OTT 2.21

RB by Average Fantasy Points:

Name Team AVG FPTS
Harris, Andrew WPG 19.08
Powell, William OTT 18.23
Wilder Jr, James TOR 16.37
Johnson, Jeremiah BC 14.55
Jackson, Don CGY 14.37
Rainey, Chris BC 13.97
Sutton, Tyrell MTL 12.50
Gable, CJ EDM 12.18
Thigpen, Marcus SSK 11.60
Timmis, Mercer HAM 10.93
Williams, Terry CGY 9.58
Cross, Declan TOR 7.63
Lafrance, Kienan WPG 7.40
Logan, Stefan MTL 7.01
Beaulieu, Jean-Cristophe OTT 6.23
Jackson, Martese TOR 5.78
Messam, Jerome SSK 5.63
Robinson, Jordan EDM 5.57
Thomas Erlington, Sean HAM 4.28
Mason, Tre SSK 3.58
Moore, Spencer SSK 3.47
Lavoie, Patrick MTL 2.73

WR by Average Fantasy Points:

Name Team AVG FPTS
Williams, Duke EDM 19.33
Walker, Derel EDM 18.90
Banks, Brandon HAM 18.08
Sinopoli, Brad OTT 17.07
Ellingson, Greg OTT 16.67
Rogers, Eric CGY 16.37
Jorden, Kamar CGY 15.15
Tasker, Luke HAM 14.98
Toliver, Terrence HAM 14.00
Stafford, Kenny EDM 13.60
Spencer, Diontae OTT 13.48
Saunders, Jalen HAM 13.38
Williams, Chris MTL 12.28
Daniels, DaVaris CGY 11.90
Thomas, Noel OTT 11.40
Roosevelt, Naaman SSK 11.13
Cunningham, B.J. MTL 10.85
Adams, Darvin WPG 10.84
Dressler, Weston WPG 10.78
Wolitarsky, Drew WPG 8.60
Evans, Shaquelle SSK 7.80
Demski, Nic WPG 7.70
Begelton, Reginald CGY 7.55
Jones, Christion SSK 7.53
Watson, Cory BC 7.43
Burnham, Bryan BC 7.23
Edwards, Armanti TOR 7.23
Arceneaux, Emmanuel BC 6.93
Jones, Mike HAM 6.58
Lewis, Eugene MTL 6.38
Green, S.J. TOR 6.17
Collins, Ricky BC 5.30
Williams-Lambert, Jordan SSK 5.23
Jackson, Ernest MTL 4.85
Johnson, Shaquille BC 4.80
Holley, Caleb SSK 4.65
Stanford, Joshua SSK 4.30
Adjei, Natey EDM 4.18
Behar, Nathaniel EDM 4.00
Bowman, Adarius WPG 3.75

Week 5: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets, with Receptions and Receiving Yards:

Name Team Targets Rec Yds3
Banks, Brandon HAM 43 28 360
Williams, Duke EDM 37 22 433
Saunders, Jalen HAM 34 22 315
Ellingson, Greg OTT 31 19 250
Walker, Derel EDM 30 23 350
Roosevelt, Naaman SSK 30 14 166
Stafford, Kenny EDM 29 19 294
Sinopoli, Brad OTT 29 21 262
Tasker, Luke HAM 28 20 279
Dressler, Weston WPG 27 17 188
Cunningham, B.J. MTL 26 17 204
Williams, Chris MTL 24 15 283
Green, S.J. TOR 24 10 105
Jorden, Kamar CGY 22 14 192
Spencer, Diontae OTT 22 12 122
Demski, Nic WPG 21 12 91
Adams, Darvin WPG 21 9 173
Toliver, Terrence HAM 21 13 230
Rogers, Eric CGY 19 11 201
Bowman, Adarius WPG 18 8 70
Burnham, Bryan BC 17 10 102
Daniels, DaVaris CGY 17 11 187
Jones, Mike HAM 15 10 163
Jackson, Ernest MTL 15 8 114
Collins, Ricky BC 14 8 79
Edwards, Armanti TOR 14 10 117
Evans, Shaquelle SSK 14 9 144
Arceneaux, Emmanuel BC 13 9 118
Holley, Caleb SSK 13 6 126
Begelton, Reginald CGY 12 9 126
Behar, Nathaniel EDM 12 8 80
Lewis, Eugene MTL 12 7 122
Tyms, Brian TOR 12 7 55
Williams-Lambert, Jordan SSK 11 7 79
Stanford, Joshua SSK 11 7 102
Thomas, Noel OTT 11 7 98
Watson, Cory BC 10 8 91
Wolitarsky, Drew WPG 10 7 94

WR by Receiving Touchdowns:

Name Team TD3
Walker, Derel EDM 3
Rogers, Eric CGY 3
Wolitarsky, Drew WPG 3
Williams, Duke EDM 2
Roosevelt, Naaman SSK 2
Tasker, Luke HAM 2
Jorden, Kamar CGY 2
Adams, Darvin WPG 2
Banks, Brandon HAM 1
Ellingson, Greg OTT 1
Stafford, Kenny EDM 1
Sinopoli, Brad OTT 1
Dressler, Weston WPG 1
Cunningham, B.J. MTL 1
Williams, Chris MTL 1
Spencer, Diontae OTT 1
Demski, Nic WPG 1
Toliver, Terrence HAM 1
Daniels, DaVaris CGY 1
Lewis, Eugene MTL 1
Williams-Lambert, Jordan SSK 1
Thomas, Noel OTT 1
Watson, Cory BC 1
Adjei, Natey EDM 1
Harper, Chris MTL 1

Week 5: Running Back Stats

RB by Rushing Yards:

Name Team Car Yds2
Gable, CJ EDM 55 280
Harris, Andrew WPG 55 310
Powell, William OTT 55 355
Sutton, Tyrell MTL 41 179
Timmis, Mercer HAM 37 175
Jackson, Don CGY 36 294
Wilder Jr, James TOR 36 196
Johnson, Jeremiah BC 34 196
Messam, Jerome SSK 32 110
Williams, Terry CGY 23 118
Mason, Tre SSK 22 101
Thomas Erlington, Sean HAM 13 100
Lafrance, Kienan WPG 11 51
Thigpen, Marcus SSK 10 64
Whitlock, Nikita HAM 6 38
Jackson, Martese TOR 6 18
Rainey, Chris BC 6 32
Robinson, Jordan EDM 2 11
White, John HAM 2 9

RB by Rushing Touchdowns:

Name Team RUSH TDS
Timmis, Mercer HAM 4
Harris, Andrew WPG 2
Jackson, Don CGY 2
Johnson, Jeremiah BC 2
Gable, CJ EDM 1
Powell, William OTT 1
Sutton, Tyrell MTL 1
Wilder Jr, James TOR 1
Lafrance, Kienan WPG 1
Thigpen, Marcus SSK 1

RB by Receptions, with Receiving Yards:

Name Team Rec Yds3
Harris, Andrew WPG 16 113
Sutton, Tyrell MTL 15 131
Gable, CJ EDM 12 47
Wilder Jr, James TOR 11 125
Cross, Declan TOR 8 29
Johnson, Jeremiah BC 6 31
Thigpen, Marcus SSK 6 48
Rainey, Chris BC 6 50
Lavoie, Patrick MTL 6 49
Logan, Stefan MTL 5 2
Moore, Spencer SSK 5 48
Beaulieu, Jean-Cristophe OTT 5 77
Powell, William OTT 4 32
Messam, Jerome SSK 4 19
McCarty, Calvin EDM 4 32
Mason, Tre SSK 3 32
Whitlock, Nikita HAM 3 10
Lafrance, Kienan WPG 2 37

Week 5: Quarterback Stats

QB by Passing Yards:

Name Team Yds
Reilly, Mike EDM 1390
Masoli, Jeremiah HAM 1378
Mitchell, Bo Levi CGY 872
Harris, Trevor OTT 822
Streveler, Chris WPG 615
Willy, Drew MTL 549
Jennings, Jonathon BC 487
Mathews, Jeff MTL 396
Bridge, Brandon SSK 357
Collaros, Zach SSK 309
Ray, Ricky TOR 307
Franklin, James TOR 284
Nichols, Matt WPG 162
Watford, David SSK 155
Bennett, Bryan WPG 71
Fajardo, Cody BC 68
Davis, Dominique OTT 41

QB by Passing Touchdowns:

Name Team TD
Reilly, Mike EDM 7
Mitchell, Bo Levi CGY 6
Streveler, Chris WPG 6
Harris, Trevor OTT 5
Masoli, Jeremiah HAM 4
Willy, Drew MTL 3
Jennings, Jonathon BC 2
Collaros, Zach SSK 2
Franklin, James TOR 2
Mathews, Jeff MTL 1
Nichols, Matt WPG 1
Watford, David SSK 1
Davis, Dominique OTT 1

QB by Completions, with Attempts:

Name Team Comp Att
Reilly, Mike EDM 102 146
Masoli, Jeremiah HAM 98 149
Harris, Trevor OTT 67 107
Streveler, Chris WPG 57 91
Mitchell, Bo Levi CGY 56 93
Willy, Drew MTL 49 76
Jennings, Jonathon BC 48 72
Ray, Ricky TOR 34 54
Bridge, Brandon SSK 32 53
Mathews, Jeff MTL 29 47
Franklin, James TOR 25 38
Collaros, Zach SSK 22 35
Nichols, Matt WPG 16 29
Watford, David SSK 13 28
Davis, Dominique OTT 5 7
Fajardo, Cody BC 5 6
Bennett, Bryan WPG 3 4

QB by Rushing Touchdowns:

Name Team RUSH TDS
Reilly, Mike EDM 4
Streveler, Chris WPG 4
Franklin, James TOR 3
Fajardo, Cody BC 2
Masoli, Jeremiah HAM 1