Week 6: Matchup Analysis

Despite last week only having three games, a lot went down.  Plenty to consider for your Fantasy lineups!  Let’s take a look.

Sask Roughriders @ Hamilton Ti-Cats

Both the Roughriders and Ti-Cats were not active last week. Both teams should be rested and ready to go.

Despite the media’s pressure, there seems to be no reason to believe Brandon Bridge and David Watord won’t split reps again this week. This makes them tough starts for Fantasy.  What else makes them tough starts is that neither have cracked double-digit Fantasy Points this season.  Avoid.

And the backfield.  Thigpen gave us 95 combined yards and a score in his last outing.  I still advise caution, as he only had 5 carries in the game, to Messam’s 4 and Mason’s 3.  Too much committee for my liking. If you don’t get the TD, your Fantasy day is ruined.  Hamilton is actually decent against backfields, surrendering the 2nd fewest FPTS in the league.

At the WR position, Roosevelt has alternated weeks being hot and cold.  If the trend continues this should be a hot week, but I’m still overly cautious. No one else shows up on the radar.  Can we please get Duron Carter back on offense???

Over to Hamilton, Masoli consumes the highest salary this week with Mike Reilly on the Bye. The Sask defense against QBs is decent, 3rd best in the league.  He was only able to muster 15 FPTS in his last game against Saskatchewan.

I wish I could make sense of Hamilton’s backfield situation. Those chasing the Fantasy points last week with Timmis were disappointed by a 3 point performance, despite getting the majority of the carries, 7.  Whitlock carried 3 times and we saw John White on the field for 2 carries.  Thomas-Erlington, who broke out Week 3 was absent.  Alex Jones is over due to return.  Too many mouths to feed.  John White is listed at the top of the Depth Chart this week. I would like to wait and see what the usage ends up being.

Speedy B is getting it done, and it’s not even on special teams. Averaging over 10 targets per game, hauling in an average of 7 per and over 100 yards in all of his last 3 games. Luke Tasker slightly behind, averaging 15 FPTS per game. Saunders has been heavily targeted in his last two games and producing double-digits. And finally Toliver averaging 14 FPTS in his last 3 games.  All these guys look like viable starts.  Sask is currently 4th best against Receivers.

BC Lions @ Ottawa RedBlacks

Travis Lulay started week 5 against the Bombers and let the Lions to a come-from-behind victory in true CFL fashion.  326 passing yards, a TD and a pick giving 15 FPTS. Very decent considering his salary.  He may be a decent value play this week as well, however consider Ottawa is currently 2nd best against QBs.

It wasn’t the performance everyone expected out of JJohnson in the rematch. Rather, it was Chris Rainey who lit it up with 114 rushing and receiving yards, and another 132 in special teams.  This was his second game in a row over 20 FPTS.  Ottawa is a middle-of-the-road team against Running Backs.  The news from BC is that JJohnson is nursing an ankle injury.  *EDIT Brandon Rutley is activated and will start in the backfield. Rainey will resume his role of backup and special teams.

With a competent slinger at the helm, we finally saw our first double-digit FPTS out of BC receivers.  Burnham gave us 10, Arceneaux with 13 and Shaq Johnson with 15.  I feel a lot better about Burnham and Arceneaux picks with Lulay running the show. I think they’ll be able to take advantage of an Ottawa secondary in the bottom half of the league against WRs.

It’s time for Trevor Harris to bounce back again.  Two miserable outings against Calgary, but great games against Sask and Montreal. I expect a decent day for Trevor, against a BC Defense giving up over 18 FPTS on average to QBs, 4th worst in the league.

And Powell should have himself a better day than last week as well. Last week being his only single-digit performance of the year. If we disclude the Calgary game, he is averaging 118 yards on the ground, per game.  BC is absolutely miserable against backfields, giving up THE MOST FPTS in the league to backs, over 28 FPTS per game!  Powell is your lock of the week.

And a mediocre BC secondary will face the trio of Ellingson, Sinopoli and Spencer.  All single-digit performers against that touch CGY D last week but watch for them to bounce back in a huge way.

Winnipeg BlueBombers @ Toronto Argos

I like the Matt Nichols start against the 2nd worst Argo’s defense against QBs.  Although, I liked the Nichols start last week as well and look how that turned out.  Matt hasn’t given us more than 11 FPTS since his return. He loses out on the rushing yards and scores but he’s sure to start throwing dimes and break out any week now.

I should pretty much just copy-paste what I’ve been saying about Andrew Harris every week.  I don’t even need to look at the data, I don’t care about the matchup. Start him.

And when Matt Nichols does break out, you’re going to want some Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler in your lineup.  This week they’ll face a Toronto Defense giving up over 56 FPTS to wide outs, 2nd worst.

I’m torn over James Franklin.  There are positives, such as his rushing ability and that he plunges in the goal-line TDs himself.  The downsides?  He seems to have a 20 point ceiling so far, and almost consistently scores a mere 10 FPTS every week.  Perhaps it’s enough if his salary stays low.  In a commissioner-based league, I’m looking to the waivers for something else.

In Toronto’s backfield, James Wilder Jr has now had two back-to-back 23+ FPTS days.  His lowest game of the year was still a 12 point outing.  Winnipeg is not great against backfields.  They’ve given up 27+ FPTS to backfields on three occasions already this season.

Over the last three games, Winnipeg has been pretty stingy against Wide Receivers. That being said, SJ Green finally seems to have gotten things going, breaking out with 23 FPTS last week.  I’d have to recommend a SIT on Armanti Edwards until I see more usage from him – only 10 targets in his last three games combined!  Not enough opportunity.

Montreal Alouettes @ Calgary Stampeders

Hi Everyone, Captain Obvious here to tell you not to start a Montreal QB against this unreal, scary, insane Calgary Defense.  Instead of talking about how bad Montreal QBs are, let’s talk about how good that Calgary D is.  Here is their opponent QB FPTS for the entire season:
Week 1: 17
Week 2: 13
Week 3: 9
Week 4: -1.
That’s an average of allowing 9.5 FPTS to QBs per game.  The second best team allows 15.

So, can you start Tyrell Sutton? He’s pretty much been the only Alouette you can count on in Fantasy.  But again, that Calgary D.  Tops in the league against RBs, only allowing 13 FPTS per game on average.

Ernest Jackson? Nope. Completely held off the board against Ottawa, and only averaging 2 receptions per game. BJ Cunningham?  eehh…. only if you like a 12 point ceiling.  Though he has an almost 8 point floor.  How about Chris Williams?  He’s got double-digit days twice this season… Hey, don’t forget about that Calgary D – once again first in the league in this category, against receivers.

Some big news this week regarding the Calgary pivot.  Bo Levi was caught on the thigh by a late hit last week.  The knee ain’t suppose to bend that way!  *edit It looks like Bo will start!

From now on I’m calling Don Jackson, Mr Consistent.
Week 1: 14 FPTS
Week 2: 14 FPTS
Week 3: 14 FPTS
Week 4: 15 FPTS
I can get behind those numbers! However, be advised that even with Terry Williams not in the game, Don Jackson still surrendered the red zone plays to rookie Romar Morris.  I don’t like that one bit!  Still, DJ is proving to be a viable play every week.

And finally we’ve got the super talented core of Calgary receivers going against the worst D in the league.  Montreal gives up over 56 FPTS per game to Wide Outs.  If Rogers is healthy, you’re starting him.  Kamar Jorden has been heavily targeted, followed by Davaris Daniels and both are averaging double-digits.  Marken Michel should return soon.  Look for regressions with a backup QB at the helm.

Week 6: Fantasy Projections

Quarterback Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling FinalProjection
Masoli, Jeremiah 13.32 22.25 29.18 20.54
Nichols, Matt 3.56 6.52 10.48 18.35
Harris, Trevor 6.54 12.84 25.68 17.57
Lulay, Travis 8.15 15.04 22.25 16.29
Franklin, James 9.90 14.89 19.78 15.70
Arbuckle, Nick 5.00 7.45 17.42 14.91
Mathews, Jeff 5.58 7.65 15.30 10.30
Bridge, Brandon 0.94 2.99 14.12 9.79
Watford, David 6.42 6.65 12.36 9.13
Fajardo, Cody 6.10 6.96 9.94 6.43
Streveler, Chris 5.45 19.42 12.64 5.79

Running Back Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling FinalProjection
Harris, Andrew 10.30 22.05 31.80 22.74
Powell, William 3.30 14.05 26.80 20.54
Wilder Jr, James 11.40 18.05 25.70 18.47
Jackson, Don 12.54 14.80 18.60 15.94
Rainey, Chris 9.95 16.98 24.00 14.74
Thigpen, Marcus 3.70 11.60 19.50 13.08
Sutton, Tyrell 5.80 12.15 18.50 9.74
Timmis, Mercer 2.00 13.65 25.30 4.34
Cross, Declan 3.20 7.10 11.00 6.19
Jackson, Martese 0.45 4.83 9.20 5.49
Logan, Stefan 4.15 7.20 10.25 5.47
Morris, Romar 3.36 14.60 14.60 4.87
Messam, Jerome 2.80 6.50 10.20 4.35
White, John 0.90 0.90 0.90 8.70
Lafrance, Kienan 2.50 7.40 12.30 4.03
Mason, Tre 1.20 3.80 6.40 4.03
Thomas Erlington, Sean 3.65 6.43 9.20 3.60

Wide Receiver Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling FinalProjection
Banks, Brandon 4.90 15.35 24.80 20.18
Ellingson, Greg 6.60 13.65 21.70 18.61
Tasker, Luke 7.95 18.10 27.30 17.58
Adams, Darvin 5.54 8.80 15.60 17.29
Rogers, Eric 5.36 16.20 30.10 15.90
Spencer, Diontae 6.55 14.73 21.90 15.75
Green, S.J. 4.00 13.55 23.10 15.43
Sinopoli, Brad 6.00 18.90 31.80 14.42
Jorden, Kamar 7.98 13.88 18.85 14.41
Saunders, Jalen 6.30 12.55 18.80 14.24
Arceneaux, Emmanuel 3.20 8.25 13.30 14.19
Burnham, Bryan 3.10 6.60 10.10 13.50
Dressler, Weston 2.40 10.40 18.40 13.25
Toliver, Terrence 7.89 15.20 20.40 11.76
Roosevelt, Naaman 5.60 13.40 21.20 10.69
Edwards, Armanti 3.30 6.90 10.50 10.50
Daniels, DaVaris 4.00 10.80 17.60 10.44
Demski, Nic 4.10 8.40 12.70 9.80
Williams, Chris 4.30 13.05 21.80 9.28
Wolitarsky, Drew 4.80 12.70 20.60 8.92
Cunningham, B.J. 8.10 10.45 12.80 8.85
Johnson, Shaquille 2.10 8.60 15.10 8.82
Watson, Cory 4.40 6.75 9.10 8.01
Thomas, Noel 1.50 9.55 17.60 7.93
Begelton, Reginald 5.00 7.45 9.90 7.91
Evans, Shaquelle 3.10 6.90 10.70 7.50
Jones, Christion 5.40 7.25 9.10 7.23
Brescacin, Juwan 1.70 7.65 13.60 6.80
Collins, Ricky 3.70 5.10 6.50 6.55
Jones, Mike 4.10 10.55 17.00 5.52
Durant, Lemar 10.90 10.90 10.90 5.29
Lankford, Ryan 4.65 4.65 4.65 5.24
Jackson, Ernest 3.80 7.05 10.30 4.85
Simonise, Rashaun 0.10 4.25 8.40 4.79
Holley, Caleb 1.80 5.95 10.10 4.47
Ralph, Jimmy 1.00 2.75 4.50 4.25
Bowman, Adarius 3.50 6.15 8.80 4.17
Carter, Duron 1.90 4.25 6.60 4.08

Week 6: Start/Sit HeatMap

Start/Sit Heatmap is based on average performance at that position, versus strength/weakness of the current week’s matchup.
Green means start with confidence, Red means beware!

Week 6: Fantasy Points For/Against Per Position

FPTS For:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is scoring at each position.  Higher numbers are better. For example, Saskatchewan QBs are only averaging a miserable 10.09 FPTS per game. BC’s backfield is averaging over 29 FPTS per game.

FPTS Against:

Use the table below to see how many fantasy points each team is giving up to each position.  Lower numbers are better. For example, QBs going up against Calgary are only able to score an average of 9.48 FPTS. WRs facing Toronto are scoring over 56 FPTS, on average per game.

Week 6: Starting Rosters

Note: All rosters are confirmed official one day before gameday, and will be updated as teams release their depth charts.

BC Lions ( confirmed ):
QB: Travis Lulay
RB: Brandon Rutley
FB: Lumbala
SB: Emmanuel Arceneaux (boundry), Cory Watson, Bryan Burnham
WR: Ricky Collins Jr (boundry), Shaq Johnson,
PR, KR: Rainey

Edmonton Eskimos ( BYE ):
QB: Mike Reilly
RB: CJ Gable
FB: Calvin McCarty
SB: Duke Williams (boundry), Natey Adjei, Behar
WR: Derel Walker (boundry), Stafford
PR, KR: Robinson

Calgary Stampeders ( confirmed ):
QB: Bo Levi Mitchell
RB: Don Jackson
FB: William Langlais
SB: Rogers (boundry), Kamar Jorden, Brescacin
WR: DaVaris Daniels (boundry), Marken Michel

Sask Roughriders ( confirmed ):
QB: Brandon Bridge
RB: Marcus Thigpen
FB: Spencer Moore
SB: Naaman Roosevelt (boundry), Williams-Lambert, Caleb Holley
WR: Evans (boundry), Stanford
PR, KR:

Winnipeg BlueBombers ( projected ):
QB: Matt Nichols
RB: Andrew Harris
FB: Miller
SB: Weston Dressler (boundry), Nic Demski, Adarius Bowman
WR: Darvin Adams (boundry), Wolitarsky
KR, PR: Kevi Fogg

Hamilton Ti-Cats ( confirmed ):
QB: Jeremiah Masoli
RB: John White
FB:
SB: Mike Jones (boundry), Luke Tasker, Jalen Saunders
WR: Brandon Banks (boundry), Terrence Toliver
PR, KR: Lawrence, Williams

Toronto Argos ( confirmed ):
QB: James Franklin
RB: James Wilder Jr
FB: Declan Cross
SB: SJ Green, Noel, Armanti Edwards
WR: Smith, Malcolm Williams
PR, KR: Martese Jackson

Ottawa RedBlacks ( confirmed ):
QB: Trevor Harris
RB: William Powell
FB: Beaulieu
SB: Thomas II (boundry), Brad Sinopoli, Greg Ellingson
WR: Diontae Spencer (boundry), R. Harris
PR, KR: Diontae Spencer

Montreal Alouettes ( confirmed ):
QB: Drew Willy
RB: Tyrell Sutton
FB: Lavoie
SB: BJ Cunningham, Ernest Jackson, Eugene Lewis
WR: C. Harper, G.Johnson
KR,PR: Stefan Logan

Week 6: Season Fantasy Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points:

Name AVG FPTS
Reilly, Mike 25.78
Masoli, Jeremiah 19.71
Streveler, Chris 18.28
Mitchell, Bo Levi 16.33
Lulay, Travis 15.04
Franklin, James 12.75
Harris, Trevor 12.55
Willy, Drew 10.72
Jennings, Jonathon 10.39
Collaros, Zach 8.28
Arbuckle, Nick 8.14
Fajardo, Cody 6.77
Watford, David 6.65
Nichols, Matt 6.52
Mathews, Jeff 6.05
Bennett, Bryan 5.94
Ray, Ricky 5.54
Bridge, Brandon 3.49
Davis, Dominique 1.26
Collins, Danny 0.84
Ross, Alex 0.00

RB by Average Fantasy Points:

Name AVG FPTS
Harris, Andrew 21.82
Wilder Jr, James 17.48
Rainey, Chris 16.48
Jackson, Don 14.68
Morris, Romar 14.60
Powell, William 14.25
Sutton, Tyrell 12.50
Johnson, Jeremiah 12.39
Thigpen, Marcus 11.60
Gable, CJ 11.08
Timmis, Mercer 10.93
Williams, Terry 9.58
Cross, Declan 8.13
Robinson, Jordan 7.93
Lafrance, Kienan 7.40
Logan, Stefan 7.01
Jackson, Martese 6.20
Messam, Jerome 5.63
Beaulieu, Jean-Cristophe 5.00
Thomas Erlington, Sean 4.28
Mason, Tre 3.58
Moore, Spencer 3.47
Lavoie, Patrick 2.73

WR by Average Fantasy Points:

Name AVG FPTS
Williams, Duke 20.92
Banks, Brandon 18.08
Walker, Derel 16.64
Rogers, Eric 16.37
Tasker, Luke 14.98
Jorden, Kamar 14.84
Sinopoli, Brad 14.73
Toliver, Terrence 14.00
Ellingson, Greg 13.90
Saunders, Jalen 13.38
Williams, Chris 12.28
Stafford, Kenny 12.22
Spencer, Diontae 12.00
Roosevelt, Naaman 11.13
Adams, Darvin 10.91
Cunningham, B.J. 10.85
Daniels, DaVaris 10.75
Green, S.J. 10.40
Dressler, Weston 9.10
Demski, Nic 8.70
Arceneaux, Emmanuel 8.53
Begelton, Reginald 8.14
Burnham, Bryan 7.95
Wolitarsky, Drew 7.92
Jones, Christion 7.53
Johnson, Shaquille 7.38
Edwards, Armanti 7.08
Brescacin, Juwan 7.00
Watson, Cory 6.70
Jones, Mike 6.58

Week 6: Wide Receiver Stats

WR by Targets, with Receptions and Receiving Yards:

Name Targets Rec Yds3
Williams, Duke 54 31 556
Banks, Brandon 43 28 360
Green, S.J. 38 20 236
Walker, Derel 37 27 386
Ellingson, Greg 35 22 276
Stafford, Kenny 34 22 331
Saunders, Jalen 34 22 315
Sinopoli, Brad 33 25 299
Dressler, Weston 32 18 202
Jorden, Kamar 30 20 271
Roosevelt, Naaman 30 14 166
Spencer, Diontae 30 16 148
Demski, Nic 29 18 123
Tasker, Luke 28 20 279
Adams, Darvin 27 13 245
Cunningham, B.J. 26 17 204
Arceneaux, Emmanuel 24 16 181
Williams, Chris 24 15 283
Burnham, Bryan 23 13 173
Daniels, DaVaris 22 15 220
Collins, Ricky 21 11 109
Bowman, Adarius 21 9 95
Toliver, Terrence 21 13 230
Rogers, Eric 19 11 201
Begelton, Reginald 18 13 185
Edwards, Armanti 17 12 163
Jones, Mike 15 10 163
Jackson, Ernest 15 8 114
Thomas, Noel 15 8 103
Johnson, Shaquille 14 10 135
Evans, Shaquelle 14 9 144
Watson, Cory 13 10 116
Behar, Nathaniel 13 8 80
Holley, Caleb 13 6 126
Brescacin, Juwan 12 9 130
Lewis, Eugene 12 7 122
Tyms, Brian 12 7 55
Williams-Lambert, Jordan 11 7 79
Stanford, Joshua 11 7 102
Wolitarsky, Drew 11 8 136

WR by Receiving Touchdowns:

Name TD3
Williams, Duke 3
Walker, Derel 3
Rogers, Eric 3
Wolitarsky, Drew 3
Tasker, Luke 2
Jorden, Kamar 2
Adams, Darvin 2
Roosevelt, Naaman 2
Banks, Brandon 1
Stafford, Kenny 1
Sinopoli, Brad 1
Williams, Chris 1
Ellingson, Greg 1
Toliver, Terrence 1
Daniels, DaVaris 1
Cunningham, B.J. 1
Dressler, Weston 1
Spencer, Diontae 1
Johnson, Shaquille 1
Brescacin, Juwan 1
Demski, Nic 1
Lewis, Eugene 1
Watson, Cory 1
Thomas, Noel 1
Williams-Lambert, Jordan 1
Adjei, Natey 1
Harper, Chris 1
Durant, Lemar 1

Week 6: Running Back Stats

RB by Rushing Yards, with Carries:

Name Yds2 Car
Harris, Andrew 449 68
Jackson, Don 396 51
Powell, William 372 63
Gable, CJ 331 65
Wilder Jr, James 222 48
Johnson, Jeremiah 222 37
Sutton, Tyrell 179 41
Timmis, Mercer 175 37
Williams, Terry 118 23
Messam, Jerome 110 32
Mason, Tre 101 22
Thomas Erlington, Sean 100 13
Rainey, Chris 75 16
Thigpen, Marcus 64 10
Lafrance, Kienan 51 11
Whitlock, Nikita 38 6
Jackson, Martese 24 10
Robinson, Jordan 17 4
Morris, Romar 17 9
Logan, Stefan 12 1
Gingras-Gagnon, Simon 11 1
White, John 9 2

RB by Rushing Touchdowns:

Name Rush TD2
Harris, Andrew 4
Timmis, Mercer 4
Jackson, Don 2
Wilder Jr, James 2
Johnson, Jeremiah 2
Powell, William 1
Gable, CJ 1
Sutton, Tyrell 1
Thigpen, Marcus 1
Lafrance, Kienan 1
Morris, Romar 1

RB by Receptions, with Receiving Yards and Receiving Touchdowns:

Name Rec Yds3 Rec TD3
Harris, Andrew 20 142 1
Wilder Jr, James 17 187 0
Sutton, Tyrell 15 131 0
Gable, CJ 13 53 0
Cross, Declan 13 75 2
Rainey, Chris 12 121 0
Johnson, Jeremiah 8 44 0
Thigpen, Marcus 6 48 0
Lavoie, Patrick 6 49 0
Beaulieu, Jean-Cristophe 6 80 1
Powell, William 5 28 1
Logan, Stefan 5 2 0
Moore, Spencer 5 48 0
McCarty, Calvin 5 37 0

Week 6: Quarterback Stats

QB by Passing Yards, with Completions and Attempts:

Name Yds Comp Att
Reilly, Mike 1648 123 172
Masoli, Jeremiah 1378 98 149
Mitchell, Bo Levi 1038 72 114
Harris, Trevor 915 81 129
Streveler, Chris 615 57 91
Franklin, James 580 51 74
Willy, Drew 549 49 76
Jennings, Jonathon 487 48 72
Mathews, Jeff 396 29 47
Nichols, Matt 376 33 57
Bridge, Brandon 357 32 53
Lulay, Travis 326 28 41
Collaros, Zach 309 22 35
Ray, Ricky 307 34 54
Watford, David 155 13 28

QB by Passing Touchdowns, with Interceptions:

Name Pass TD Int
Reilly, Mike 9 6
Mitchell, Bo Levi 7 2
Streveler, Chris 6 2
Harris, Trevor 5 4
Masoli, Jeremiah 4 4
Willy, Drew 3 1
Franklin, James 2 2
Jennings, Jonathon 2 3
Collaros, Zach 2 2
Mathews, Jeff 1 1
Nichols, Matt 1 3
Lulay, Travis 1 1
Watford, David 1 2
Davis, Dominique 1 0

QB by Rushing Touchdowns, with Carries and Rushing Yards:

Name TD2 Car Yds2
Reilly, Mike 4 35 150
Streveler, Chris 4 32 228
Franklin, James 3 15 58
Fajardo, Cody 3 10 16
Masoli, Jeremiah 1 16 137