Week 6: Matchup Analysis

Welcome to Week 6, Football Fans!

I’m on vacation with Family this week, so my contributions to the site may be a bit sparse.  I wrote this before Week 5 even concluded, so take it for what you will!

Let’s take a look at what the numbers say for Week 6 matchups.

We kick it off on Thursday night with the Montreal Alouettes visiting the Winnipeg BlueBombers.

At the QB position, offensively Montreal does not inspire confidence, though Durant has steadily improved his numbers 3 games straight now.  Defensively, Winnipeg is weak, giving up the 3rd most FPTS to the position. Doesn’t sound like a matchup I’d get behind. On the other side of the ball Nichols seems attractive given his Salary – it’s going to be hard to get BLM or Reilly in your lineup this week. Nichols may be a safe alternative – though he is widely inconsistent.

At the RB position, Winnipeg gives up the MOST in the league to opposing backs. If Sutton is a go, he’s a must start. He averages almost 13 carries per game plus four targets, and has scored over 16 FPTS his last two outings. Montreal is solid against the run, so temper expectations with Harris this week, who only has two TDs in his four game so far this year.

Through the air I have a hard time recommending receivers from either team.  Dressler had a huge start, but has been inconsistent since. Ernest Jackson and BJ Cunningham are the only Alouette recievers with double-digit FPTS in two games or more. Montreal scores the 2nd fewest at the position, Winnipeg the 4th fewest. Side with Montreal’s receiving core if you have to, as Winnipeg is the 2nd worst team against WR’s in the league.

On Friday, the Edmonton Eskimos will host the BC Lions.

Travis Lulay now has two 400+ yard games in a row.  Will he make it three in a row against an Edmonton Defense that only gives up an average of 13.8 FPTS to QB’s?  That’s best in the league. I’m staying away. If Jennings returns, I’m definitely staying away.

As predicted, Manny Arceneaux broke out last week against WPG, but Edmonton is the best in the league against the WR position.  They are not, however, as good against the run. I’m starting BC’s backfield with confidence.  Johnson has a TD in every game he’s played this year, and averages over 18 FPTS per game. He’s this week’s START OF THE WEEK.  I’ll even give him a 12 point floor.

If Travon Van remains ~ $7000 value on DraftKings, I’m going with him as well against a middle-of-the-road BC run D. His lowest performance as a starter thus far has been 11.70 FPTS.

Watch for Vidal Hazelton to further emerge with Adarius Bowman now on the 6 game IR. Zylstra maintains the most consistent receiver for EDM thus far.

Then we are off to Mosaic on Saturday when the Toronto Argos visit the Sask Roughriders.

With Kevin Glenn’s disappointing performance in Calgary last week, SSK has dropped from the best in the league at the QB position, all the way to the 5th spot.  Toronto is 2nd best against QB’s so I’m sitting Glenn.

I’m also sitting Toronto’s backfield, 3rd worst in the league against a SSK defense only giving up 10.80 FPTS per game to Backs. But watch Coombs, he seems to be the hot hand at the moment.

I’m also watching SJ Green, getting over 10 targets per game, and a now healthy Jeff Fuller through the air and limiting expectations of SSK receivers – EDIT Toronto really put the brakes on Ottawa’s offense at the end of Week 5, maybe they’ll do it again to SSK.

The week will wrap up on Saturday with the Calgary Stampeders hosting the lowly Hamilton Ti-Cats.

Hamilton is worst in the league at the QB position.  Worst in the league at the RB position. Worst in the league at the WR position.

Defensively, they are the worst in the league against the QB position. Worst in the league against the WR position.

I guess what I’m trying to say is they are the worst in every category except against the RB position, where they sit 5th best.

So start all your Stamps. ALL OF THEM. Kamar Jorden stands out as the ONLY receiver in the league to score double-digit fantasy points in four or more games(4 of 5) – EDIT now Ellingson joins that list(4 of 6).

Good luck this week, everyone!

Week 6: Wide Receiver Rankings

WR by Average Fantasy Points

Kamar Jorden 13.96
Greg Ellingson 13.72
Bryant Mitchell 13.60
DeVier Posey 13.33
Jalen Saunders 12.37
Weston Dressler 11.70
SJ Green 11.56
Darvin Adams 10.95
Bakari Grant 10.60
BJ Cunningham 10.50
Brandon Zylstra 10.23
Namaan Roosevelt 10.05
Brad Sinopoli 10.00
Ryan Lankford 9.93
Adarius Bowman (inj) 9.10
Diontae Spencer 8.98
Armanti Edwards 8.95
Nick Moore 8.72
Vidal Hazelton 8.65
Bryan Burnham 8.64
Caleb Holley 8.45
Joshua Stangby 8.24
Nic Demski 8.03
Lemar Durant 7.96
Marquay McDaniel 7.94
Tiquan Underwood 7.54
Emmanuel Arceneaux 7.22
DaVaris Daniels 7.13
Ernest Jackson 7.10
Jasper Collins 6.83
Tyron Thorpe 6.50
Brandon Banks 6.40
Marken Michel 6.28
Jeff Fuller 6.13
Nik Lewis 5.96
Duke Williams 5.95
Khalil Paden 5.90
Duron Carter 5.84
Luke Tasker 5.70
Juron Criner (inj) 5.20

Week 6: Running Back Rankings

RB by Average Fantasy Points

Jeremiah Johnson 17.65
Tyrell Sutton 12.70
Andrew Harris 12.60
Travon Van 12.52
William Powell 11.25
Chris Rainey 11.01
Mossis Madu 10.10
Jerome Messam 9.82
Cameron Marshall 9.30
Ross Scheuerman 9.30
Martese Jackson 8.38
Roy Finch 7.90
Terry Williams 7.83
Brandon Rutley 6.90
John White(inj.) 6.80
Brendan Gillanders 6.50
Anthony Coombs 6.48
Kendial Lawrence 6.45
LaDarius Perkins 5.15
Brandon Whittaker(inj) 5.07

Week 6: Quarterback Rankings

QB by Average Fantasy Points

Kevin Glenn 20.83
Mike Reilly 19.99
Trevor Harris 19.26
Matt Nichols 19.25
Bo Levi Mitchell 19.08
Ricky Ray 18.63
Travis Lulay 17.55
Darian Durant 14.52
Zach Collaros 11.11
Jonathan Jennings 10.71
Andrew Buckley 3.13
Ryan Lindley 2.70
Dan Lefevour 2.26
Cody Fajardo 1.90
Jeremiah Masoli 1.88
Vernon Adams Jr 1.32
Brandon Bridge 0.35
Drew Tate -2.00

Week 5: Matchup Analysis

Hello and Welcome to Week 5!

I don’t normally do ‘writing’, I’m mainly just a numbers guy. But let’s break tradition for a few minutes and analyse some matchups.

Week 5 sees the BC Lions taking on the Winnipeg BlueBombers. What do the numbers say?

BC is scoring pretty much the exact amount of Fantasy Points at the QB positon, that Winnipeg is giving up, on average. Looks like a safe bet for 20-22 FPTS from your BC QB position.
On the other side of the ball, it is also a very even matchup, with WPG expected to score 18 FPTS against a BC Defense that gives up just over 17. So neither QB from BC or WPG really stands out to me this week.

At the RB position, however, things look more interesting.
BC leads the league in FPTS at the RB position, and WPG gives up the 3rd most in the league. Start your BC backfield.
WPG is no slouch in the RB department, Andrew Harris almost always a must-start. BC, however, is pretty stout against the run, so I would temper expectations this week.

Through the air, BC is the third worst team scoring at the WR positons. However, WPG gives up the 2nd most FPTS in the league to WRs. It’s an ugly matchup, but perfect for someone like Manny Arceneaux to finally break out this season.

Week 5 also sees the Calgary Stampeders versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Bo Levi Mitchell is always a good play. This week in particular we see his 3rd best in the league FPTS go against a middle of the road SSK Defense.
I’m going to recommend Kevin Glenn as a start over BLM, however. SSK scores the MOST Fantast Points at the QB position so far this year. Calgary gives up the 4th most points to the position.

In the backfield, you’d think Messam would be a must start almost every week. This week, however, he goes up against a SSK defense that is best in the league against RB FPTS.
And I’d also stay away from SSK RBs this week, as they are the 2nd worst FPTS average in the league, despite a terrible Calgary run Defense.

In the passing game, start your Calgary WRs. 2nd best scoring in the league vs SSK’s 6th worst defense. Other side of the ball is equally attractive. SSK WRs should have a decent day.

The Edmonton Eskimos will face off with the Hamilton Ti-Cats.

Start all your Eskimos, sit all your Ti-Cats. Enough said.

Ottawa RedBlacks versus the Montreal Alouettes, in Ottawa’s first game of the week, an early Wednesday start.

Despite Ottawa’s win-loss record, they have very decent Fantasy numbers. 2nd best at the QB position, 2nd best RBs and 3rd best WRs, in terms of average FPTS scored.
However, Montreal sits with the 4th best rank against QBs, 3rd best against RBs and 3rd best against WRs. Pretty evenly matched up. I think it will be a great game.
The one position matchup I’d really trust here is the Montreal backfield. Start Sutton, he’s getting a great amount of touches, although he’ll go up against the 2nd best defense against the run. I still trust him based on volume. I give him an 8 point floor, upwards to an 18 point ceiling. My projection has him scoring right in the middle there. *edit* Sutton is a no-go this week, it will be Brandon Rutley.

Toronto Argos versus the Ottawa RedBlacks, on Monday night.

We’ll have more numbers to look at by this time, as Ottawa will have another game under their belt. Initially, I am going to recommend starting Toronto WRs against a bad Ottawa defense (7th worst against WRs), and start your Ottawa RBs against an equally bad Toronto D against the run.

Whew. That was interesting.

If I were to do more of these types of Matchup Analysis in the future, would you prefer it to be a Podcast, YouTube, or just an article like this? Or should I just stick to the numbers? 😉

Drop me a line in the comments or my email and let me know what you think! Always looking for suggestions to improve the usefulness of this site! Thanks for reading!

Week 5: Starting Rosters

Note: All rosters are only official one day before gameday, and will be updated as teams release their depth charts.

BC Lions:
QB: Travis Lulay
RB: Jeremiah Johnson
FB: Lumbala
SB: Emmanuel Arceneaux, Bryan Burnham, Marco Iannuzzi
WR: Nick Moore, Shaq Johnson
PR, KR: Rainey

Calgary Stampeders:
QB: Bo Levi Mitchell
RB: Jerome Messam
FB: Power
SB: Jorden, McDaniel, Parker
WR: Daniels, Durant

Edmonton Eskimos:
QB: Mike Reilly
RB: Travon Van
FB: Calvin McCarty
SB: Mitchell, Watson, Zylstra
WR: Hazelton, Williams
PR, KR: Lawrence

Sask Roughriders:
QB: Kevin Glenn
RB: Cameron Marshall
FB: Moore
SB: Naaman Roosevelt, Bakari Grant, Antwane Grant
WR: Duron Carter, Rob Bagg
PR, KR: Demski, Morris

Winnipeg BlueBombers:
QB: Matt Nichols
RB: Andrew Harris
FB: Normand
SB: Dressler, Thorpe, Denmark
WR: Adams, Feoli-Guidino
KR, PR: Lankford

Hamilton Ti-Cats:
QB: Zach Collaros
RB: Scheuerman
FB: Prime
SB: Collins, Tasker, Saunders
WR: Tyms, Jones
PR, KR: Brandon Banks

Toronto Argos:
QB: Ricky Ray
RB: Wilder Jr
FB: Declan Cross
SB: SJ Green, Anthony Coombs, Armanti Edwards
WR: Williams, Jeff Fuller
PR, KR: Jackson

Ottawa RedBlacks
QB: Trevor Harris
RB: Powell
FB: Lavoie
SB: Hoffman, Sinopoli, Ellingson
WR: Stangby, Spencer
PR, KR: Spencer, Stangby

Montreal Alouettes:
QB: Darian Durant
RB: Tyrell Sutton(out!) Brandon Rutley will start
FB: JC Beaulieu
SB: BJ Cunningham, Nik Lewis
WR: Ernest Jackson, George Johnson
KR,PR: Logan

Week 5: Projections!

Projections are calculated using the player’s average FPTS of the current season, takes into account the strength/weakness of the matchup, plus adds/subtracts bonuses for other considerations such as – home or away, streaking performance (performance over the last 4 games only vs entire season), current team trends and injuries/support roster changes.

Please note the 2017 Fantasy Scoring system, down the left side-bar.

Week 5 QB Projections:

Mike Reilly 24.90
Kevin Glenn 22.47
Ricky Ray 19.70
Bo Levi Mitchell 18.41
Darian Durant 17.38
Matt Nichols 16.46
Trevor Harris 16.23
Jonathan Jennings 14.27
Zach Collaros 12.43

Week 5 RB Projections:

Jeremiah Johnson 16.21
Madu/Powell 14.38
Ross Scheuerman 13.59
Andrew Harris 13.05
Travon Van 12.70
Brandon Rutley 11.70
Cameron Marshall 11.41
Martese Jackson 9.12
Jerome Messam 8.51
Greg Morris 7.40
Roy Finch 7.39
Chris Rainey 7.06
Terry Williams 6.73
Brendan Gillanders 6.45
Brandon Whittaker 5.31
CJ Gable 5.13
LaDarius Perkins 5.06
Kendial Lawrence 4.91

Week 5 WR Projections:

Kamar Jorden 14.84
Weston Dressler 14.70
SJ Green 13.58
Jalen Saunders 13.33
BJ Cunningham 12.90
Nick Moore 12.51
Brandon Zylstra 12.24
Adarius Bowman 11.29
Bakari Grant 11.14
Greg Ellingson 10.54
Namaan Roosevelt 10.25
Diontae Spencer 9.95
Ryan Lankford 9.91
Armanti Edwards 9.72
Nic Demski 9.24
Vidal Hazelton 9.06
Bryan Burnham 8.85
DaVaris Daniels 8.69
Duke Williams 8.27
Ernest Jackson 7.86
Brad Sinopoli 7.64
Darvin Adams 7.33
Tiquan Underwood 6.87
Jasper Collins 6.85
Joshua Stangby 6.82
Lemar Durant 6.74
Brandon Banks 6.48
Khalil Paden 6.26
Duron Carter 6.22
Marquay McDaniel 6.06
Emmanuel Arceneaux 5.97
Marco Iannuzzi 5.57
Shaq Johnson 5.44
Nik Lewis 5.38
Julian Feoli Gudino 5.09
Marken Michel 4.72
Daje Johnson 4.26
Luke Tasker 4.16

Week 5: Quarterback Stats

QB by Passing Yards

NAME PassYds
Ricky Ray 1529
Bo Levi Mitchell 1382
Trevor Harris 1379
Kevin Glenn 1055
Darian Durant 940
Mike Reilly 866
Jonathan Jennings 853
Matt Nichols 826
Zach Collaros 792
Travis Lulay 436
Dan Lefevour 20

QB by Passing TouchDowns

Trevor Harris 8
Bo Levi Mitchell 7
Kevin Glenn 7
Matt Nichols 5
Ricky Ray 4
Darian Durant 4
Mike Reilly 4
Travis Lulay 3
Jonathan Jennings 2
Zach Collaros 2

QB by Rushing TouchDowns

Travis Lulay 3
Kevin Glenn 2
Ryan Lindley 2
Vernon Adams Jr 1
Cody Fajardo 1
Jeremiah Masoli 1
Andrew Buckley 1