Week 10: Matchup Analysis

Ottawa RedBlacks @ Winnipeg BlueBombers

I guess we are starting with Trevor Harris. He’s had a very up and down season so far, but is now sitting with 19+ FPTS in three of his last four games. Winnipeg is actually decent against opposing QBs, and the team gives up the 2nd fewest offensive scores in the league. At Trevor’s current TSN salary, I suggest finding your pivot position elsewhere.

In Ottawa’s backfield, William Powell currently has the most carries in the league, which he has turned into the 2nd most rushing yards. He’s been a tremendous fantasy performer in 6 of 8 games this season, averaging 18.85 FPTS in those 6 games. I’m iffy on the matchup he’ll see in Winnipeg, who’s defense gives up the 2nd most FPTS to backfields, is tied for the most rushing TDs allowed, but doesn’t allow that many yards on the ground – 3rd fewest.

Trevor Harris threw the ball a TON last week against Montreal. Ellingson looked to put things back in place, turning 14 targets into 11 catches and 110 yards. Sinopoli and Spencer were heavily involved and had respectable outings. But let’s talk RJ Harris for a moment. This might be your salary relief play of the week. Since Week 6 he has seen no fewer than 5 targets. He has an average of 12.5 FPTS over that span. Winnipeg is middle of the road when it comes to giving up FPTS to receivers, however they have surrendered the 2nd most completions in the league. With guys like Ellingson, Sinopoli and Spencer drawing all the attention, watch for RJ Harris to continue to get open and make plays.

Like last week, I’m still having a hard time pinning down Matt Nichols. He feels like a boom or bust play, but his boom isn’t that boom-y, and his bust isn’t… busty? If we just look at his last three games, he’s given us an average of 18 FPTS. It just might be his salary that pushes him into many rosters. He’ll go up against a bottom-4 defense against Ottawa. They’ve given up the 3rd most passing TDs in the league.

Andrew Harris. I don’t care about the matchup. I don’t care about the numbers. Start him. Always. Let’s move on.

So who is getting the Fantasy Points for Winnipeg’s receivers? It must be someone… Darvin Adams started the season stronger than he’s showing for the last couple. I expect a bounce back. Double digits FPTS in 5 of 8 this season, averaging 14 FPTS in those five games. Dressler is averaging under 10 FPTS per game. Even with a TD last week he couldn’t crack double digits. He appears to be out this week – moved to the 6 game IR!  Look for Lankford takes his spot in the boundry slot. Demski looks to be the play. 18 FPTS last week, with a TD and 134 kick return yards. His usage seems to be on the rise, and he has some motivating competition for the slot position, with a healthy Flanders returning to the roster. The Ottawa secondary is giving up the 3rd most passing TDs, and 3rd most passing completions to receivers.

BC Lions @ Toronto Argos

Travis Lulay comes into this game averaging just shy of 15 FPTS per game. It may be a good value play against a fairly bad Toronto Defense. They are giving up over 22 FPTS to QBs on average, which is 2nd worst in the league. I like the opportunity for Lulay to give us a good performance at a reasonable price.

We’ll have to wait and see what the depth chart looks like to see if JJ is back for the Lions. Johnson has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries. At his salary, I’m not sure if I’m recommending a start here, despite a decent matchup. If JJ sits, I’m all in on Van at a more reasonable salary. Chris Rainey is too boom or bust for me. Toronto currently gives up the 5th most FPTS to Running Backs.

With Lulay at the helm I keep expecting Arceneaux and Burnham to erupt.  But it’s not consistently happening enough to crack my lineups.  Both have widely variable floor-to-ceiling numbers. A gamble every week.

Who I’m more interested in going forward is Kevin Elliott.  A pair of double digit performances, averaging 14.55 FPTS. 12 targets over those two games.  Led the team in targets last week by a good amount.  Another good option for some salary relief.  Toronto is quite bad against wide outs, currently giving up the 2nd most FPTS to the position.

Toronto gives up the 2nd most Offensive Points in the league.  2nd most Touchdowns to opponents.  2nd most 1st downs to opponents.  2nd most net offense to opponents. 2nd most passing yards to opponents.  You get the point. Basically, if Montreal wasn’t so terrible, Toronto would be last in everything.

So what do we do with McLeod Bethel-Thompson.  He has one huge quarter of football under his belt.  And three not-so-good quarters.  Maybe a gamble is worth it at his salary.   What is he going up against?  For starters, BC has given the 3rd most FPTS to opposing QBs. They give up the 3rd most offensive points to opponents, 3rd most net offense, 3rd most passing yards. Basically just behind Toronto in all those categories previously mentioned.  It’s a good opportunity for McLeod to show he’s not a one quarter wonder.

I’m starting James Wilder Jr this week. Are you? Toronto is 1st in the league when it comes to the RB position racking up FPTS. Granted, Wilder Jr doesn’t get all those himself.  But it shows there is opportunity and usage at the position.  All seven of his games this season have been double digit FPTS performances. He’s averaging 17.51 in those games, with a ceiling well into the 20’s.  BC is 3rd worst in the league at giving up FPTS to opposing backfields.  They give up the 3rd most yards per rush on average, and are tied for giving up the most rushing TDs in the league.

SJ Green currently appears to be the only wide out with any Fantasy relevance.  But he’s the definition of boom or bust. I attribute this to the instability at the QB position.  If you’re in the camp of McLeod believers, an SJ Green stack looks to be a tremendous value.  In keeping with tradition, BC is also 3rd worst in the league surrendering FPTS to wide outs.

Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos

Johnny is in concussion protocol. Pipkin is looking to get the start. Avoid.

What really interests me in this game is Tyrell Sutton.  He’s really been the only usable Alouette in Fantasy.  Averaging over 12 FPTS per game, he’s got 6 double digit performances vs only 2 singles. Averaging 10 carries per game, tack on another 5 targets and almost 90 all purpose yards per game.  Opportunity is there.  And the matchup is sweet. Edmonton down-right stinks against opposing RBs.  They’re giving up an average of over 30 FPTS per game to backfields. Compare that to the next worse team, only giving up 24 FPTS per game. Edmonton is 2nd last giving up an average of 5.5 yards per rush, and tied for giving up the most rushing TDs in the league.

Ernest Jackson had his biggest game of the year last week. He turned 5 targets into 5 receptions and 61 yards.  Still not enough to show up on my Fantasy radar.  Interestingly, newcomer to the Alouettes, Adarius Bowman, received the most targets last week.

So Mike Reilly leads everything for QBs. And Montreal trails everything against QBs. Do the math.

I want to like CJ Gable against the lowly Alouettes. Surprisingly, Montreal is actually a middle-of-the-pack team against RBs.  And Gable… there are nine other RBs ranked ahead of him on the season.  I think it’s a risk with Reilly vultering the TDs.  That said, Gable has three straight double-digit performances in a row now, one of which includes a 17.1 FPTS show over the same Montreal Alouettes in Week 7. *EDIT unfortunately for Gable owners, he missed practice all week. It could be Shaq Cooper or Jordan Robinson in his place. Stay tuned for updates. – looks like Cooper .

Derel Walker has surged ahead of Duke in the rankings. Duke has been held to under 50 yards receiving and single digit FPTS for two weeks straight now.  Absolutely nothing to worry about for owners, though, the targets and opportunities are still there.

*EDIT now something big to keep in mind – this game may be post-poned due to the air quality issue in Edmonton with all the BC wild fires burning out of control.  Keep an eye on updates. – It looks like they’ll get the game in this weekend.  If not Saturday then Sunday. Either way  fantasy rosters should be safe

Calgary Stampeders @ Sask Roughriders

IMO Bo Levi’s salary is too high for a guy who isn’t giving us that much more than guys like Nichols or Lulay. This week in particular, I think Calgary handles the Roughriders but expect some depressed Fantasy numbers. There are two decent defenses playing here.

Don Jackson is expected to be healthy after the Bye, but is still at risk of sharing touches with Terry Williams. Ultimately I still need to see the depth chart here but will still recommend to find your RB elsewhere.  Sask is 2nd best at limiting FPTS to opposing Running Backs. They are 2nd best in categories rushing yards allowed, rushing attempts against, rushing touchdowns against.

Eric Rogers goes the 6 game IR with surgery.  Kamar Jorden is the guy. I expect him to lead the way. I’m hoping to see Davaris Daniels and Marken Michel pick it up a notch.   But again, this is a decent Sask D.

According to CFL stats, these are all the defensive Categories that Calgary is currently in first place:

Points allowed, offensive points allowed, opponent touchdowns, opponent offensive touchdowns, opponent net offense, opponent passing touchdowns, opponent scrimmage plays, opponent yards per play, opponent 1st downs, turnover ratio, time of possession, opponent rush yards, opponent rush attempts, opponent rush touchdowns, opponent pass yards, opponent pass average, opponent 30+ yards completions, opponent pass efficiency.

You’re not starting a Sask QB against Calgary.

You’re not starting a Sask RB against Calgary.

You’re not starting a Sask WR against Calgary.

I guess that wraps this one up.

3 Replies to “Week 10: Matchup Analysis”

  1. Great job again this week! I really enjoy your analysis and insights! Lots of what you said confirmed what I was thinking too! Keep up the excellent work! Cheers!

      1. I second that! Great analysis and projections. Interesting how perhaps the biggest matchup might be cancelled. Makes fostering hard with that potential!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *