Week 11: Matchup Analysis

Welcome to Week 11, everyone!  Just a quick note to say  I’m travelling for work for this week. I didn’t get to spend as much time on this analysis as I would have liked, and won’t get much opportunity to update as the week progresses.  But I’ll do my best, good luck this week!

Edmonton Eskimos @ Hamilton Ti-Cats

Mike Reilly will get the short week to prepare for the TiCats, after dismantling the Montreal defense for the second time this year. Hamilton is actually second best limiting FPTS to opposing QBs, but this is Mike. He’s still going to be a safe play, but don’t count on 30+ FPTS like last week. Hamilton gives up the 2nd fewest offensive points and 2nd fewest passing touchdowns in the league.

Hamilton gives up the most average rushing yards in the league.  But it doesn’t always translate to Fantasy Points. Other than two big games, Hamilton has actually been OK against limiting FPTS to backfields. I’m fading CJ Gable this week, as he only has one game this season over 20 FPTS. Averaging 15 FPTS in his last three doesn’t sound terrible but he’s been on the decline since Week 7.  When these teams faced each other in week 2, Gable didn’t quite have things going yet and scored only 8 FPTS.

I project plenty of opportunity for Edmonton receivers in what should be a high scoring game.  Duke and Derel will do their thing. After a couple down games, Duke got things going again with a 20 FPTS performance against Montreal.  He is averaging over 18 FPTS per game, and has over 20 FPTS in 6 of 9 games this season. Stafford and Mitchell might be the picks for some salary relief. Stafford sees almost 7 targets per game on average but has only seen an average of 48 receiving yards in his last three games.  Mitchel came through last week with 128 yards and a score. Hamilton is 2nd best in the league against wide-outs and leads the league in opposing completions.

*edit Hazelton appears on the depth chart ahead of Giguere, and Stafford is ahead of Bryant Mitchell.

Fresh off the Bye week, Masoli will face a middle-of-the-road Defense against QBs.  It’s not the most tempting start on paper, but Masoli should do well in a high scoring game.  He’s given us an average of 21 FPTS in his last three starts. Edmonton is tied for giving up the 2nd most offensive touchdowns in the league.

Here is your lock of the week: Alex Green.  In his two starts this season he has seen over 15 touches per, and has given us 19.4 FPTS and 20.20 FPTS against Mtl and Wpg. Those are decent numbers but what makes this a lock is how bad Edmonton is against backfields.  Dead last in the league, giving up an average of 29 FPTS to backfields.  They give up the 2nd most average rushing yards per play, and the 2nd most rushing touchdowns in the league.

Plenty of targets for Masoli.  Mike Jones is off the radar, with only a single target in both of his last two.  Saunders gave us two games of 28+FPTS in a row, to then leave  the Wpg game early with injury. Watch for his status – he’s a start if he’s healthy.  Brandon Banks is the stand-out and his salary reflects that. Three games in a row over 20 FPTS with a pair of TDs to go along.  Tasker’s numbers have dropped and not recovered since coming back from injury.  Toliover is not seeing the targets lately.  Chris Williams is only seeing 4 targets and 27 yards per game since joining the TiCats.

*edit Saunders appears to be getting the start! And…. He’s scratched .

Toronto Argos @ Montreal Alouettes

After a 14 FPTS performance against the Lions last week, Mcleod Bethel-Thompson maintains his $6000 salary on TSN.  Facing the hapless Alouettes that bargain salary makes McBeth your value play of the week. I expect him to take full advantage of the matchup like everyone else has.  Montreal gives up the most FPTS to QBs by a big margin.  Start McBeth with confidence.

And James Wilder Jr.  He commands a higher salary, but will be well worth it.  He doesn’t have a single digit FPTS performance all year. His lowest being a 10.0 FPTS outing.  Averaging 18 FPTS per game, over 104 combined yards per game. 17 average touches and 6 average targets in his last three games.

Montreal gives up the most net offense. The most offensive points. The most passing TDs. The most scrimmage plays. The most first downs. The most rushing yards. The most passing yards. The most pass completions.

SJ Green appears to be an appealing stack this week. He had a depressed game last week against BC but the targets were there, which means he’s seeing the opportunity to create FPTS for your team.

Will Manziel be back under centre?  Doesn’t matter. Toronto is not good against QBs but you’re still not starting a Montreal pivot.

How do we feel about Sutton? He’s a bit hard to get a read on because of the rest of this lowly offense. Opportunity is there for him. He sees 9 touches per game over his last 5, with 80 combined yards per, averaging 12 FPTS per game.  Toronto gives up the 3rd most rushing yards per game, and 2nd most net offense.

*edit It looks like Sutton will sit, William Stanback will get the start in the backfield.

There is still not a single Montreal receiver I would gamble on.  BJ had 20 FPTS last week but still only averages 10 per game. No one else on the team even comes close to double digits.

Winnipeg BlueBombers @ Calgary Stampeders

Matt Nichols will face the stifling Stamps D in Week 11. That’s an automatic sit.  Calgary is ridiculous against opposing QBs.  Since week 5 Cgy has given up an average of only 7.93 FPTS to QBs.

So here’s the matchup I’ve been waiting all season for.  Is Andrew Harris really matchup proof?  He has yet to face the two strongest Defenses in the league in Calgary and Sask.  His lowest production was week 1 against the Eskimos, where he still scored 11 FPTS.  Since then, he’s averaged 19.8 FPTS per game.  This Calgary Defense ranks 1st in the league limiting combined backfields to only 17 FPTS per game.  At Harris’ salary I’m not going to gamble on this start.  But I’ll be watching with great interest – Winnipeg will face the aforementioned Sask D twice in a row weeks 12 and 13. This game will determine my confidence in his starting value going forward.

Finally, last week Darvin Adams showed he is the true #1 in Winnipeg.  He ripped off a monster 2 TD performance against Ottawa.  Expect the whole team to regress against this Calgary D, leading pretty much every category available to Defenses.

Bo looks to be a OK start for Week 11.  A bigger game for him last week against Sask, giving him a 20 FPTS average over the last four.  He has TEN passing touchdowns over those last four games.  Winnipeg gives up the 4th fewest FPTS to opposing QBs, and is tied for the 2nd fewest passing touchdowns allowed.

The Calgary backfield makes for a tempting start against Winnipeg.  Winnipeg gives up the 3rd most FPTS to backfields, 3rd most average rushing yards and the most rushing Touchdowns.  Will Don Jackson be healthy to start? Or will we get a bargain with Romar Morris again? Stay tuned for updates.

Kamar Jorden is the #1 in Calgary with Eric Rogers on IR. He has three TDs in his last five games, averaging 94 yards and 19.5 average FPTS.  DaVaris Daniels had a monster 2 TD performance last week. Michel, Bescacin and Durant bring up the rear.  Winnipeg gives up the 2nd most pass attempts and 2nd most pass completions.

Sask Roughriders @ BC Lions

Last week the Roughriders came out and defeated the undefeated.  But it only translated to 10 FTPS for Zach Collaros.   I expect a bit more out of him against a BC defense giving up the 3rd most FPTS to QBs.   BC surrenders the 3rd most net offense, 3rd most points allowed, and 3rd most passing yards.

The Sask backfield is a mess and I don’t even want to write about it.  Even with the departure of Messam, there is no clarification.  In the last four games, Mason had the most touches in two, Thigpen had the most touches in two.  I’m steering clear of the uncertainty.

*edit Thigpen may be injured, watch for updates.

And what can we make of the receiver situation… Roosevelt should be leading the way but is averaging single digits. Williams-Lambert had a huge breakout game last week but no confidence that continues. Holley looks to be injured.  BC is quite league-average against wide-outs.

This Sask D is pretty good, and Lulay has only been averaging under 15 FPTS since taking the reigns.  I’m going to recommend a sit here.  Sask limits opposing QBs to the 3rd fewest FPTS in the league.

Sask is also pretty good against opposing RBs, limiting backfields to the 2nd fewest FPTS in the league.  However if JJ is healthy, he’s a start. Over 17 FPTS in 4 of his lats 5 games. 12 carries in those 4 games and averaging over 80 combined yards per game. Chris Rainey is still too streaky to make my lineup at his salary.

Burnham and Arceneaux both achieved double digits last week, with Burnham adding the major score. Arceneaux with two lost fumbles had some impact on his performance ( just realized TSN doesn’t score negative for lost fumbles, wtf? ) Sleeper Kevin Elliott has 8 targets in each of his last two games.  Saskatchewan allows the 4th fewest FPTS to wide outs.

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