Week 12: Matchup Analysis

Montreal Alouettes @ Ottawa RedBlacks

Johnny Manziel is back to practice, but early in the week has been splitting starting reps with Antonio Pipkin.  Doesn’t matter, you’re not starting either of them.

We’ll have to wait and see the status of Tyrell Sutton.  If he’s a no-go for the second week in a row, it should be William Stanback getting the nod again.  Last week he turned 11 touches and 2 receptions into 73 combined yards and 11.5 FPTS.  Pretty much exactly what Sutton would have projected for.  Ottawa is actually 2nd best in the league at limiting backfields from scoring FPTS, so limit your expectations for this value start.

*EDIT Stanback will sit due to injury this week as well. Look for Ryder Stone to get a start.  Also, Stef Logan was back to practice.

*EDIT Ryder Stone will play backup to Lawrence Pittman.  Stef Logan returns to Special Teams duties.

By contrast, Ottawa gives up the 3rd most FPTS to Wide Receivers, so it’s tempting to start a Montreal receiver. Until you look at their receivers.  Eugene Lewis has quietly been improving as the QB spot gets better. His last three outings gave us 12, 11 and 14 FPTS. BJ Cunningham is averaging 16.7 FPTS in his last pair of games, but has a trio of stinkers previous to that. Ernest Jackson has not found his game, with a measly 11 point ceiling.   I’d still avoid.

Trevor Harris is looking like your QB lock of the week, like pretty much any QB going up against Montreal. He’s only averaging 15 FPTS per game, but has given us over 20 each time he’s faced Montreal.

Similarly, you’re getting William Powell into your lineup.  Montreal is giving up the 3rd most FPTS to backfields.  Powell has two straight games of over 100 rushing yards and a TD in each. He’s also getting involved in the passing game, 6 receptions and over 60 receiving yards in his last pair of games.

After a terrible start to the season, Greg Ellingson is finding his game. 24 targets and 210 receiving yards in his last two outings.   We all know what Sinopoli has been doing lately, despite his last one being a slight regression.  Dominique Rhymes may be a sleeper option.  In his last two games he’s given us 15 and 19 FPTS. 13 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown over those two games.

Winnipeg BlueBombers @ Sask Roughriders

It’s the Banjo Bowl!  Let’s start with Matt Nichols.  That is to say, we’re not starting Matt Nichols.  First of all, Saskatchewan is the 2nd best D in the league limiting FPTS to opposing QBs. Secondly, Chris Streveler, for good reason, has been seeing more and more snaps. He vultured 9.5 FPTS last week, which is just shy of what Matt himself was able to do.

What I really want to get in to this week is Andrew Harris. For the first time this season he went up against the #1 Defense in Calgary last week. While he still found 12.4 FPTS, it was his second lowest total of the season. Calgary limited him to only 13 rushing yards. If it weren’t for the extra 6 PPR points from dump passes out of the backfield, it would have been a total bust.
So what does that say about Andrew Harris this week vs Sask? Well I would expect some regression from what we normally see. That being said, this is the Banjo Bowl! Everyone comes to play with just a little bit more on the line. I’d be tempted to start him but at that salary, I think we are finding our backfield elsewhere for the next couple weeks.

Darvin Adams has two double-digit performances in a row now, one of them being a monster 36 FPTS performance. Wolitarsky has given us 10.7 and 17 FPTS in his last two, which is an upward trend. Demski has double-digits in 5 of his last 6 games. Saskatchewan allows the 3rd fewest opponent passing yards, and 2nd fewest opponent pass completions. They surrender the 4th fewest FPTS to wide outs. I’d find your receiver starts elsewhere.

Other side of the field. Zach Collaros is not getting a start from me this week. In his last two games he’s put up only 10 FPTS in each. So far he’s only got a 15 point ceiling. And then we have shit like Nick Marshall vulturing short yardage touchdowns.

And Sask’s backfield is still a huge mess. With Messam gone and Thigpen injured, you’d think Tre Mason would have become a sure thing. Nope. We saw Cameron Marshall getting into the action. And that dirty vulture mentioned previously. Avoid.

Namaan Roosevelt hasn’t given us a double-digit performance since week 6. Jordan Williams-Lambert is your performer as of late. Averaging 16 FPTS over his last three games, including double-digits in four of his last five. Winnipeg gives up the 3rd most passing yards and 2nd most pass completions to opponents.

Edmonton Eskimos @ Calgary Stampeders

And now we’ve got the Battle of Alberta. The Labour Day Classic. Throw away all your numbers and stats and figures and projections because none of it matters when these two teams meet. Calgary has a great defense? Doesn’t matter, this is the Battle of Alberta! You think the Esks are just going to roll aside? The back-to-back matchups between these two teams should be barn burners.  I’ve got my tickets, section S right at mid-field and I’m super excited!

Mike going up against Calgary’s D. Sure, expect some regression, but Mike will still ball out. I’m fading CJ Gable once again, especially against this Calgary Defense, but you’re still going to load up on Derel Walker and Duke Williams. For your value plays watch for who starts – Hazelton or Mitchell. These Alberta showdowns always result in plenty of opportunity.

Bo will be throwing. A great pick for this week, likely only second to Trevor Harris vs Mtl. Edmonton has given up the 2nd most offense Touchdowns in the league to date.

Don Jackson didn’t exactly impress in his first game back since Week 6. I don’t expect a monster game from him but there should be opportunity. He’s startable. Edmonton is bad against the run, surrendering the 2nd most average rush yards and tied for the most rushing touchdowns against.

Kamar Jorden now leads the way for all receivers after a ridiculous 249 yard outing last week. He is clearly the number #1 for Bo with Eric Rogers out. Get him in your lineup if you can work the salary. Going with a stack with Davaris Daniels or Marken Mitchel ain’t a bad idea either. Edmonton actually limits opposing receivers to the 3rd fewest FPTS in the league. But like I said, this is the Battle of Alberta. Expect the unexpected.

Toronto Argos @ Hamilton Ti-Cats

McBeth has now started three games, so his numbers are returning to normalcy after his huge first game. Since then he’s averaging 15 FPTS per game which is really where the projection seems to put him on a consistent basis, regardless the matchup variables I feed into it. Hamilton is 3rd best in the league against fantasy QBs. They give up the 2nd fewest offensive points and 2nd fewest opponent Touchdowns.

James Wilder Jr was a slight disappointment last week, only getting 12 FPTS against Montreal. However, that also means he still has done at least 12 FPTS in every game he’s played this season. Hamilton gives up the most rushing yards on average, however keep in mind that number is a bit inflated due to some monster plays given up. They give up the 3rd fewest rushing touchdowns.

Duron Carter is not starting this week. And he is not starting next week, per Marc Trestman.
It was Armanti Edwards with the big game last week, going over 20 FPTS for the first time this year. Back in Week 8 we thought we witnessed the emergence of SJ Green but sadly he’s done little since. Hamilton gives up the fewest opponent passing yards, the fewest opponent pass attempts, the fewest opponent pass completions, and the 2nd fewest average passing yards. Find your receivers elsewhere this week.

Since Week 7, Masoli is averaging just over 20 FPTS per game. The matchup against Toronto is a great start opportunity for Jeremiah. Toronto gives up the 2nd most FPTS to opposing QBs. 2nd most average passing yards and 2nd most big plays (30+ yards).

Alex Green is the model of consistency and makes my job too easy. He started three games so far this season and has done 19, 20 and 21 FPTS. Give him 22 against Toronto, right? They give up the 3rd most rushing yards and 4th most rushing TDs in the league.

Chris Williams is out for the season. Saunders was a scratch last week. If he’s still out, Tasker and Banks need to be looked at, hard. Especially Tasker as Banks’ salary is going to be a hard one to swallow. Hamilton should really be able to exploit a Toronto secondary giving up the 2nd most FPTS to receivers. Toronto has surrendered the 2nd most opponent passing yards and the most average yards per pass.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *