Week 14: Matchup Analysis

BC @ Montreal

Travis Lulay was taken out of the game last week and put in concussion protocol. If he can’t go this week we’ll see Jonathan Jennings at the helm.  Last week in relief, Jennings threw 10/12 for 68 yards and a TD.  A great value opportunity exists against a Montreal Defense giving up the most FPTS to QBs. Lulay was practicing with the first team this week.

Jeremiah Johnson will also get a nice opportunity against the 4th worst Defense against backfields. JJ has three TDs in his last four games, and over 91 combined yards in three of his last four.

Ricky Collins Jr is worth a mention, as he’s seen 11 targets in each of his last two games.  That leads the team and points to opportunity.  Bryan Burnham is seeing 8 targets per game over the last five games, and has four TDs over that span. Montreal gives up the most FPTS to wide outs. DeVier Posey, back from the NFL has just signed with the Lions. Watch for the Depth Chart to see if he’ll be deployed this week.

So how about Antonio Pipkin for a value play? Over his last three starts, he’s averaged 21 FPTS per game.  Things appear to be turning around for the Alouettes. They’ll face a BC Defense giving up the 4th most FPTS to QBs

Sutton hasn’t played since Week 10. We’ll have to see if he’s healthy after the bye week, or if we’ll see Ryder Stone in his place. It should be a good opportunity, BC surrenders the 3rd most FPTS to running backs.

As the QB position improves, the WR spots in Montreal appear to be picking up as well. Eugene Lewis has over 11 FPTS in three games since Week 8 and Ernest Jackson has over 11 FPTS in three games since Week 9. BJ Cunningham is averaging 17 FPTS in this last three games. BC gives up the 4th most FPTS to wide receivers.

Calgary @ Hamilton

Bo threw for like, a million yards last week against Edmonton. He’ll face a better defense in Hamilton.  But Bo should have a typical day, I project him around that 20 FPTS mark.

Will Don Jackson be back?  Romar Morris exploded last week against the Eskimos, who allow a full 10 FPTS per game more than Hamilton does.  The competition will be stiffer, but the salaries make either start tempting. Watch for the Depth Chart!

With injuries to Kamar Jorden and Eric Rogers, DaVaris Daniels has stepped up as expected. We also saw Reginald Begelton step in handsomely, with 12 targets and over 150 receiving yards.  Marken Mitchel gave us a stinker in week 12 but made up for it with a TD in Week 13.  Hamilton is the best team in the league limiting FPTS to wide-outs.

Jeremiah Masoli has been on fire lately.  He’s done no less than 17 FPTS over his last six games, including an average performance of 23.9 FPTS over that span.  Expect some regression against the #1 Defense in the league.  Calgary only allows 14.6 FPTS on average to the QB position.

And Alex Green has been a bright spot to the TiCats roster. Since week 8 he’s done no less than 19 FPTS per game.  But again, he’ll go up against a stout Defense, best against backfields.

Brandon Banks is super hot, scoring over 30 FPTS in two games straight. Since Week 8 he’s averaged 24 FPTS per game. Tasker is also on a roll, averaging 27 FPTS over his last three.

Ottawa @ Saskatchewan

Can Trevor Harris be trusted this week? He’s given us a couple stinkers in a row and seems to be very inconsistent when looking at his year-to-date.  I’d avoid against a rolling Saskatchewan Defense, 2nd best in the league against QBs.

How about William Powell? He’s got a couple down games as well, but still managing double-digits. 13 FTPS in each of his last two is a bit of a drop from the 20’s we saw previous.  Sask is 4th best in the league against backfields.

Sask is also 4th best against receivers. If Harris can get things worked out, I would expect Ellingson, Sinopoli and Spencer to be startable. Ellingson had a three game streak of 19+ FPTS before a regression last week.  Sinopoli is showing us an average of 18 FPTS since week 6.

Saskatchewan seems to have figured things out and is rolling a 4 game win streak.  But that hasn’t necessarily translated into Fantasy Points for Zach Collaros.  Since Week 8 he’s averaging 10.8 FPTS per game.

Tre Mason seems to have taken over the majority of touches in the backfield.  20 touches for 117 yards last week. Averaging 13 touches over the last four games. But not a single TD.  Sask does dumb shit in the redzone like putting in a DB in the WildCat formation which vultures TDs from the QB and backfield.

Roosevelt is still too up and down to trust a start.  Standford and Evans aren’t seeing enough opportunity.  Kyran Moore becomes an interesting value play, as Chris Jones seems to be interested in seeing what the speedy wide-out can do both at WR and on special teams.  Jordan Williams-Lambert seems to be benefiting the most from Sask’s revitalized offense, scoring double-digits in each of his last five games, averaging 14.3 FPTS over that span.

2 Replies to “Week 14: Matchup Analysis”

  1. Thanks for all your extra effort(s)!! Especially making time to create the projections with the NEW model as well as adding your creative flare to the match up analysis!

    We know you’re really busy this time of the season ….. so everything you do is much appreciated!

    Keep up the great work ….. and I’m pleased to share I earned 155 fantasy points last week thanks to you!! Cheers!

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