Week 15: Position Analysis

Numbers, numbers, numbers, Data, data, data, Math, math, math.

We are having fun now! In my own style of plain English, here’s what the numbers say about Week 15 fantasy positions, by team!

Quarterbacks

Once again, The Hamilton Tabbies sit at the bottom of the pile.  9th ranked, dead last. Hamilton, as a team, scores under 15 FPTS on average at the QB position. They’ll face tough opposition as Toronto only gives up the 2nd most FPTS in the league to QBs. Since Week 11, Masoli’s has a median of about 14 FPTS. His floor is somewhere around 10 and ceiling could approach 20 on a really good day.

The struggling squad from Montreal clocks in as the 8th ranked QB in the league – half a Fantasy Point better than Hamilton.  I expect this to be the year’s ugliest game, going up against a really fucking good Stampeders Defense.  You can’t start any QB against the Stamps. Durant appears to be injured as well – Backup Willy looks to be starting. Stay far away.

Surprisingly, the next best ranked QB in 7th position – the very Stampeders mentioned a second ago.  You’d think Calgary would rank higher, but they just don’t have to score much with that Defense.  Calgary is scoring an average of 18.6 FPTS per game at the QB position. Bo’s portion of that is only 15.8 FPTS, hampered by his lack of ground game.  10 point floor, 22 point ceiling. Against a terrible Montreal team, I expect him to be near his ceiling this week. Possibility for him to get pulled in a blowout in favour of backups reps.

Ranked in the 6th position we find the Toronto Argo’s led by Ricky Ray. Scoring an average of 19FPTS per game, 17 of that being Ricky’s points.  Fajardo vultures the ground game TDs.  Ricky’s last two games have not been great, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against Hamilton. He scored over 21 FPTS last time facing the ‘Cats.

Our 5th best ranking lands in Ottawa.  Trevor Harris is still out, Lindley gets the start. The team averages a bit over 18FPTS per game at the QB position when led by Harris. Lindley? We don’t need to talk about that.  They’ll face a 3rd best Roughriders Defense against.  It doesn’t look good for Ottawa this week.

4th best would be the team on Bye – BC

So straight on to the 3rd highest ranked QB team, Saskatchewan.  They are scoring almost 23 FPTS per game, going up against an Ottawa team giving up the 5th fewest. It’s a decent matchup made more attractive if you believe they’ll be running up the score as Ottawa’s offense will struggle to stay on the field. Not counting the ugly game against Calgary, Glenn himself is averaging 21.5 FPTS over his last four games.

Mike Reilly, off the Bye week, leads the 2nd best QB team in the league. The team averages over 23 FPTS at the position, with 22.3 of that belonging to Mike. Juicy matchup, going up against a Winnipeg Defense 2nd worst in the league against QBs.  If you can afford him, you’re starting him. High potential for a shootout game.

And finally the BlueBombers and Matt Nichols lead the way with an impressive 24 FPTS average per game. Edmonton is 4th best against but as mentioned, this could be a shootout, with both QBs having plenty of opportunity to drive up the score. It almost seems unbelievable, but Matt hasn’t scored fewer than 18 FPTS since week 7. He’s averaged 22 FPTS since. 28 point ceiling.

 

Running Backs

First up we have the 9th place Hamilton backfield. Alex Green posted 15.5 FPTS against BC last week, and that’s pretty much all the data I’ve got on that. Toronto is the 4th best team against backs, giving up an average of 14.4 FPPG.  A gamble that looks attractive based on Salary.

Another gamble comes in the form of the 8th place backfield in Saskatchewan. They recently signed Trent Richardson. Might be early for him to start so we still have a LaFrance vs Josh Harris conundrum.  Whoever it be, they face a decent Ottawa Defense, 3rd best in the league against backfields.

Edmonton’s injury-ridden backfield clocks in next. But there is hope, as Van has made his return to the lineup.  He had a huge first game back against Toronto, putting up 24 FPTS with 2 major scores.  Going back to before his injury he was averaging 12.5 FPPG, all double-digit games.  And a decent matchup, up against Winnipeg’s 3rd worst D against RBs.

6th best backfield is in Montreal. Sutton is a dominant, under-rated back. But behind that O-Line, getting behind in every single game, it just doesn’t play out for him.  Especially avoid this week against that Calgary Defense.

I like a Powell pick this week with Lindley at the pivot position. In two games with the backup QB, Powell has put up 14.8 and 14.7 FPTS, respectively.  The Saskatchewan defense is truly middle of the road, giving up an average of 14.5 FPPG to backfields.

Messam and the Stamps own the 4th best backfield. Start him! His volume of carries is ridiculous and going up against Montreal is such a delicious matchup. The model says Messam will be this week’s leading rusher.*edit – Messam is ruled out for Week 15. In his place will be Terry Williams. Roy Finch should get more looks.

3rd most productive backfield – The Bluebombers.  An interesting scenario with Andrew Harris leading the way, and Flanders now being moved to the slot. Flanders is still listed as an RB, however.  I want both these guys in my lineup this week, as the numbers look to increase for Flanders with Dressler out.  Edmonton has been pretty terrible against the run, surrendering an average of 16.3 FPPG to backfields, that’s 2nd worst in the league!

Do we keep rolling with Wilder Jr in Toronto? Two massive games, can he keep it up?  I hope so because its so fucking entertaining to watch!  Wilder Jr has single-handedly brought Fantasy Relevance to the T.O. backfield.  Hamilton surrenders the 4th most FPTS to RBs.

And on top is BC, but they’re on Bye so JJohnson is sadly not an option this week.

 

Wide Receivers

The first thing we are not doing in Fantasy is starting Ti-Cats or Allouettes.  That said, Luke Tasker is starting to show some value, and I’m interested to see if Andy can provide a spark.

Let’s move right on to the 7th best WR Core in the league, in Toronto.  Up against a Hamilton secondary ranked LAST in the league. We are starting SJ Green and his buddies, Armanti and DeVier.  SJ has regressed a touch, but leads the way in targets and has two TDs in his last two games.

Next up is BC in 6th, so we’ll keep moving along.

Calgary’s receiving core gives us our 5th ranked group. Daniels looks to return so we’ll see some decline for Marken Mitchell and Begelton should no longer be an option. McDaniel has been a shadow of his former self. Kamar Jorden is desperately needed to return.

The core in Ottawa ranks in at 4th, but with backup Ryan Lindley chucking the ball, we have to expect a decline in production from our favourites, Ellingson, Sinopoli.  And Diontae’s value has really plummeted with the return of McDuffie.  Sask is middle-of-the-road against Wide Receivers, surrendering 32.6 FPPG to wide-outs and slottys.

Let’s take a good look at Winnipeg, as there should be a lot of FPTS to go around this week. Darvin Adams is the first obvious choice. 25.5 FPTS in his last outing. But a trio of ugly, single-digit performances preceding. Denmark, a very streaky risk with a ton of upside (ceiling). 5 point floor, 18.5 ceiling. Lankford appears to be practicing in Dressler’s spot, but as such doesn’t have much fantasy relevance. And we’ve got Flanders now working out of the slot, and put up 14 FPTS in his first outing at that position. All up against a stout Edmonton secondary, 2nd best against receivers.

Other side of the field, Eskimos receivers, 2nd best in the league against a miserable Winnipeg secondary.  Bowman has not been the dominant force we expected, averaging only 37 receiving yards per game since his return. Duke Williams continues to be a streaky value play with a ceiling approaching 18 FPTS but a median of only 8. Zylstra is our guy. 17 FPPG in his last three, almost 12 over the entire season.  And finally Derel Walker, two games back and oddly identical stats in each game – 11 targets, 8 receptions, 93 yards and 92 yards respectively. Weird. Consistent!

And finally, best core in the league, also best dance crew in the league – Saskatchewan. Roosevelt’s status is the question here.  With him out, look for Carter, Grant and even Holley to get more looks but I project the backfield gets locked up more.  With Roosevelt in, the team spreads the ball more. Watch for Carter to bounce back after two poor outings. Previous to those he had two 17+ FPPG in a row. Roosevelt, if he plays, will be in your lineup. Look at this production in his four games previous to the Calgary game – 14.1, 17.9, 16.2, 12.6.  Those are the kind of points I want out of my fantasy team! Grant was the more productive receiver against Calgary, and managed two double-digit performances in his last four.

 

Good luck in Week 15!

 

 

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