Week 20: Beta Projections

Last chance to test run the new model before the end of the season.  The new model first creates Floor – Median – Ceiling figures for each player.  This is based mostly on Historical Performance, and the Week’s Matchup.

We then dive deeper into the data and introduce a number of subjectively weighted variables that I’m always tweaking and tuning.  Heavier weighted on average performance, average performance over the last four games, and the matchup. Heavy to Median weighted on Roster variables such as Same Position Injuries, other Offensive Position Injuries, QB Injuries, Opponent Defense Injuries and Position on Depth Chart. Lighter weighted on things such as Streaking Performance, Home vs Away Game, Field Conditions and Weather. These variables create the fine-tuned final projection.

Hope you’ve all enjoyed the content this year. Looking forward to the next season already.

Week 20 QB Beta Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling Fproj
Mike Reilly 13.45 23.10 32.75 26.37
Jeremiah Masoli 5.86 21.58 37.29 23.59
Jonathan Jennings 2.27 15.82 29.36 20.47
Ricky Ray 8.76 18.85 28.94 18.50
Bo Levi Mitchell 9.22 18.18 27.14 17.42
Kevin Glenn 1.11 17.03 32.95 15.87
Dan Lefevour 0.18 5.47 10.77 10.58
Matt Schiltz 2.20 5.12 10.24 8.92

Week 20 RB Beta Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling Fproj
CJ Gable 3.47 16.31 29.15 18.77
James Wilder 0.24 13.04 25.84 16.14
Alex Green 16.09 19.91 23.72 13.93
Trent Richardson 5.94 17.08 28.22 12.88
Jeremiah Johnson 4.45 13.05 21.64 11.34
Chris Rainey 4.67 18.46 32.24 11.08
Andrew Harris 5.57 14.01 22.45 10.31
Tyrell Sutton 2.66 12.81 22.96 9.41
Jerome Messam 1.21 15.65 30.09 9.32
Cameron Marshall 6.28 15.94 25.60 9.02
Martese Jackson 2.49 10.60 18.71 8.48
Stefan Logan 3.88 12.52 21.15 7.63
Kienan Lafrance 1.94 9.14 16.34 6.70

Week 20 WR Beta Projections:

Name Floor Median Ceiling Fproj
Brandon Banks 4.74 18.56 32.38 16.89
Brandon Zylstra 3.14 13.48 23.82 16.56
Bryan Burnham 4.51 13.36 22.21 15.95
Namaan Roosevelt 2.58 9.24 15.91 14.62
SJ Green 3.50 16.05 28.60 13.96
DaVaris Daniels 1.21 13.45 25.70 13.00
Derel Walker 6.53 10.02 13.50 12.88
Luke Tasker 3.19 11.52 19.86 12.36
Caleb Holley 2.84 7.91 12.98 12.24
Chad Owens 17.42 17.42 17.42 12.18
Kamar Jorden 5.27 13.12 20.98 12.17
Adarius Bowman 1.13 9.10 17.07 12.16
Jalen Saunders 3.29 11.97 20.65 11.29
DeVier Posey 3.07 13.40 23.73 10.32
Weston Dressler 2.65 13.50 24.34 10.27
Marken Michel 0.88 14.55 28.23 9.43
Armanti Edwards 2.33 11.28 20.23 8.94
BJ Cunningham 1.26 11.39 21.53 8.93
Duron Carter 0.44 12.16 23.87 8.88
Marquay McDaniel 2.31 11.97 21.64 8.52
Ernest Jackson 0.76 9.32 17.88 8.47
Christion Jones 3.24 8.33 13.42 8.39
Nick Moore 1.36 15.35 29.34 8.35
Emmanuel Arceneaux 2.62 10.22 17.81 8.28
Vidal Hazelton 3.22 11.15 19.08 7.70
Clarence Denmark 1.28 9.10 16.93 7.58
Ryan Lankford 2.20 9.20 16.20 7.49
Bakari Grant 0.89 6.31 11.73 6.92
Nik Lewis 3.78 9.69 15.61 6.20
Chris Givens 8.78 8.78 8.78 5.41

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