Week 4: Matchup Analysis

Hamilton Ti-Cats @ Sask Roughriders

Let’s start with Masoli. Pretty much a 16 point floor with a 30 point ceiling. You have to start him against the lowly Roughriders. They gave over 20 FPTS to Ottawa. Even Montreal scored 13. Masoli should do well.

Hamilton’s backfield…. at this point is anyone’s guess. Some may be tempted to go Timmis, and chase the Fantasy Points. Two TD’s in each of his last two games, sounds tempting. Just not sure it can continue to play out that way. Especially with the emergence of Thomas Erlington. And I’m still waiting to see some John White! Alex Green is due to return. Whoever gets the carries should be pretty successful. Sask is giving up an average of 26 FPTS to backfields.

Plenty of options for Hamilton receivers. Saunders, Banks, Tasker and Toliver are all averaging over 14 FPTS per game, with Tasker leading the way at 17 FPTS per game. Surprisingly, Sask is giving up the 2nd fewest FPTS to receivers.

At the helm for Saskatchewan, it has been announced that Brandon Bridge will once again get the start. He was pulled from the game last week after tossing two picks, giving Fantasy Players a whopping 0.94 FPTS. Avoid the situation this week. Bridge and Watford are too risky to play.

And how do we go about picking a running back from Sask? Thigpen was to be the darling of week 3 and didn’t produce squat. Tre Mason lead the way with 6 FPTS. Avoid.

And until the QB situation improves, how can one recommend a Sask receiver? Roosevelt has hit 20+ FPTS only once this season. No one else is even into double digits. We miss you, Duron Carter! Hamilton is in the top 3 when it comes to giving up FPTS to both Receivers and Running Backs.

Ottawa RedBlacks @ Montreal Alouettes

Going heavy on Ottawa seems to be the safe play of the week. How can they not take complete advantage of a terrible Montreal D, likely to start a backup QB?

Trevor Harris is locked firmly into my lineup. His stats don’t look that great on paper after a disappointing performance against CGY last week, but he’s sure to bounce back against the lowly Alouettes. He’ll get plenty of time on the field this week. However keep in mind, Ottawa is the kind of team that will sit and rest their QB if the game gets out of reach.

William Powell? He’s in your lineup as well. He’ll get plenty of touches as Ottawa is expected to control the clock for the duration of the game.

And Ellingson is in your lineup if you can afford the salary. Spencer would be an obvious start. Sinopoli looks to be a tremendous value play. Get these guys going!

Edmonton Eskimos @ Toronto Argos

Mike Reilly? Nuff said.

Wow, did CJ Gable ever get it going against BC in Week 3. Watch for more of the same against the Argo’s. If you expect Edmonton to run up the score like I do, Gable should get you plenty of those garbage time points. Toronto has not been overly effective against the run, giving 23 FPTS to backfields, on average. 3rd worst in the league.

Derel Walker, Duke Williams. And the emergence of Kenny Stafford as a decent salary play. Toronto is currently giving up the 2nd most FPTS to receivers. Get at least one of these guys in your lineup.

James Franklin will get the start for the Argo’s. This is the exact reason they traded for him. He’s touted as been a CFL caliber starter behind Mike Reilly. This is his time to shine. Edmonton has not been great on D. Currently 4th worst against QB’s. Franklin will have a very tempting salary for Week 4. It’s a bit of a gamble play in my opinion, I’d like to watch him for a week for two.  But if you’re a gambler, I say go for it.  He does have experience in this league.

Will James Wilder Jr finally get it going against this Edmonton run defense currently giving up almost 22 FPTS to backfields? It’s a decent opportunity for him if the Argo’s can keep the game close. I just don’t like his usage numbers so far this season – averaging less than 8 touches per game and 4 receptions. Not enough to get those FPTS and no touchdowns on the season so far. I suspect with a backup QB they’ll rely on him a bit more going forward.

And I just can’t get behind Toronto receivers yet this season. Even SJ Green… not a single double-digit fantasy scorer to be found in Toronto. The entire core is scoring less than 25 FPTS per game, worst in the league. We’ll see in the coming weeks if Franklin is able to inject some life.

BC Lions @ Winnipeg BlueBombers

This game really interests me. Hate that we have to wait all the way to Saturday night to see this one play out.

Jennings looked good to start last week against the Eskimos, then things really fell apart. I would look for him to improve slightly in what could be a see-saw battle. Winnipeg is merely average against QBs so far this year.

Jeremiah Johnson continues to lead the backfield for BC. Averaging 11 touches per game isn’t a lot, but the next highest usage for BC’s backfield only has two touches all season ( Rainey ). So Johnson is locked firmly into the lead role. If BC can stay in the game, I could see him doing similar to his 17 FPTS performance against Edmonton. If BC falls back in this game, I would project his performance closer to 13-14 FPTS.

Not a lot to brag about when it comes to BC’s receiving core. Much like Toronto we don’t have a single double-digit performer. Arceneaux? Burnham? I really hope your QB starts finding you guys. Until then, risky plays with some great upside – Winnipeg is currently the WORST in the league against Receivers.

*BIG UPDATE * Matt Nichols has been removed from the IR list after the minimum 4 games.  He has been announced as the Starter for Week 4!

Andrew Harris. In the new PPR format, how are we not starting him every week? BC is dead last in the league against backfields. Get him in your lineup and leave him there all season.

Not so hot on Winnipeg receivers. Dressler has been a favorite target and getting opportunity but the FPTS are just not stacking up. Bowman is a non factor, Wolitarsky was kept off the sheet completely last week. The best thing Darvin Adams has done this season has been as a QB, not a WR. * Update with Nichols returning, Dressler and Adams get a bump in value.  I now like Demski as a value play.

2 Replies to “Week 4: Matchup Analysis”

  1. I really enjoy all your comments and analysis! Your snappy comments are great as you almost read my mind on some of your suggestions regarding RB Harris in Winnipeg, the weak Montreal team and the gettem and keepin philosophy! Keep up the good/GREAT work with all the stats analysis and extra effort that you’re putting into the creating this webpage for us. I’m please to share that I’m leading our group in our fantasy league thanks to you! Take care – CHEERS!

    1. Thank-you so much for the comment, Brad! Glad the site is interesting and useful for you! Sadly, I’m not doing that well in my own fantasy league! LoL

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