Week 5: Matchup Analysis

With only 3 games on tap for the weekend, pickins’ are going to be a bit slimmer than normal.  Pitter Patter, Let’s Get At ‘Er!

Calgary Stampeders @ Ottawa RedBlacks

Let’s start with Bo.  251 through the air with 2 TDs and a pick, before the Bye in Week 3 against this Ottawa D ranked 2nd best in the league against QBs.  Bo only has one monster game, against Toronto, this year. He’ll be back to Chorin’ this week. I see a typically “Bo” performance, projecting 17-18FPTS.

Calgary’s backfield looks to be a true two-headed monster. Don Jackson is averaging 12 carries per game, ahead of Terry Williams’ 8 carries.  I’m going with Jackson here, as he makes more with his touches – 8 yards per versus Williams’ 5. Jackson also catches ‘slightly’ more out of the backfield but neither are much of a passing threat.  Ottawa is currently 3rd best in the league against backfields.  Don Jackson has delivered exactly 14 FPTS in each of his last three games. *Edit* Terry Williams is not listed on the Depth Chart for Week 5.  Don Jackson should see an increased workload.

Bo does a great job of spreading the ball around to his receivers.  Eric Rogers is rolling, averaging over 23 FPTS in his last two games. In salary leagues, you’ll pay for him but he is a guaranteed Sniper. Top cheddar, bar downskis. Daniels and Jorden will get theirs as well, safe plays.  Ottawa is currently middle of the road against Wide Outs. *UPDATE* Eric Rogers is out for this weekend, being replaced in the boundry slot by Begelton.  Makes him a huge value sleeper play and likely gives a bump to Davaris Daniels, and slightly to Kamar Jorden.

Now, what do we think about Trevor Harris?  Calgary absolutely shut him down in Week 3, only to see him have a fantastic performance against Montreal in Week 4. I advise caution for any QB going up against the Stamps, but Trevor should do better than his 3.4 FPTS in their last matchup.  However, for his salary I’d be tempted to look elsewhere this week. Calgary’s D is the clear cut number one against QB’s surrendering an average of only 12.9 points to QBs per game.

So how about Powell in the backfield?  Calgary’s D is once again 1st in this category, giving up only 16 FPTS to backfields per game. I would temper expectations for Powell this week but I’m still giving him about 80 yards on the ground and a score.  I think if Ottawa wants to stay in this game they really have to get the ground game going and keep Bo off the field. Easier said than done.

Sinopoli broke out for the RedBlacks against the Alouettes last week, while Ellingson looked more human and Spencer disappointed.  Any of these guys have the ability to go off on any given week, but again, watch for regressions against a Calgary Defense 2nd best in the league against Wide Outs.

Toronto Argos @ Edmonton Eskimos

James Franklin and the Argos upset the Eskimos in Week 4.  I think the Week 5 rematch will be an amazing game.

Franklin gave us a mediocre passing game against Edmonton, completing 66 percent of his passes.  A rushing Touchdown saved his Fantasy day.  I can see more of the same against a disappointing and undisciplined  Edmonton defense – giving up the 3rd most FPTS to QBs.  If his salary doesn’t jump too much, this might be the value play of the week.

James Wilder Jr really got his season going against the Eskimos. The Argos relied on him heavily, and should continue to do so.  Are you putting this guy in your lineup?  Does a duck with a boner drag weeds? He gave us almost 150 combined yards and a score against Edmonton, who has been giving up the 2nd most FPTS to backfields.

Well, it would seem I had good things to say about Toronto’s QB and RB situations. But what about their Receiving core? Still not a single WR with double-digit averages.  Armanti Edwards leads the way with under 8 FPTS per game. Yikes.  Where is the SJ Green we were all impressed with last year?  Until I see a spark, I’ll be avoiding.

Back to Mike Reilly.  His WORST performance of the year against the Argos was still worth 17 FPTS. But at his salary, you need more from him.  I think owners will get exactly that in the re-match. No way in hell this Certified Beautician doesn’t get you back into the 20’s in Week 5.  Toronto gives up the 4th most FPTS to QBs.

Toronto is currently giving up more FPTS to backfields than Edmonton is scoring. To me that means opportunity for CJ Gable.  Only 62 combined yards against TO last week, but I think the pace of the rematch will get him more involved.

If you’re not loading your team up with Edmonton receivers, you need to give your balls a tug.  Toronto is currently dead last in the league against opposing receivers, giving up over 60 FPTS per game to Wide Outs.  Walker and Williams lead the way.  Kenny Stafford has emerged and Bryant Mitchell is back.  If you’re in deep leagues, grab those latter two off the waivers!

Winnipeg BlueBombers @ BC Lions

Matt Nichols is back.  The Bombers blew out the Lions in Week 4, but it didn’t translate to FPTS for Nichols, especially with Streveler coming off the bench for goaline plays, vulturing a pair of TDs.  Nichols,  much like Bo Levi, never handle short yardage so there is always risk of losing out on that precious TD.  That said, the Bombers should be able to easily handle the Lions in the rematch and for lack of better options this week, Nichols may be a decent play. BC is second worst in the league against QBs.

Andrew Harris is locked in your lineup, right?  Is a duck’s ass water-tight? That’s a Texas-sized 10-4! He’s averaging over 77 rushing yards and close to another 30 through the air.  Valuable PPR points. And this week he faces a bad BC Defense, dead last against RBs.

Darvin Adams is back! Weston Dressler is back! Even Nic Demski is getting in on this party.  With Nichols back, these guys become viable fantasy starts. In salary leagues, take advantage before their price skyrockets. Darvin Adams is a lock at his salary.

Anyone thinking of starting Jonathan Jennings need to stomp the brakes, put that idea right through the windshield. We saw one or two decent quarters of football from him so far this season. He hasn’t had double-digit FPTS since the opener against Montreal.  He gave us less than 1 point before getting the hook last week. Something needs to change in Vancouver. I hope I’ll get to replace this line with an update of a new starting QB…  I do get to update with a new QB!  Lulay is slated to start!

Jeremiah Johnson has been the sole stand-out for the Lions, and really the only valuable Fantasy option, perhaps with Chris Rainey. Johnson has averaged 18 FPTS in his last two games. Winnipeg gives up the 3rd most FPTS to running backs.

And as I said last week, without a performing QB at the helm, guys like Arceneaux and Burnham just haven’t found their stride.   Risky plays every week. – With Lulay getting the start this week, if he looks at all like his pre-injury self, you should seriously consider getting Manny and Burnham in your lineups at their current salaries.  The Lions get behind in this one, watch for Lulay to start slinging it and rack up those garbage time points!

Sit back, relax, crack open a Puppers and enjoy Week 5. Good luck, everyone!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *