Week 7: Matchup Analysis

Welcome to Week 7, CFL Football Fans!

I think we were spoiled last week. That Winnipeg Montreal game, are you kidding me??!?! Amazing.  Duron Carter’s multiple circus catch performance?!?!? Nuts.

Anyways, let’s take a look at some numbers and how they can help predict what this week brings us.

We kick off the week on Thursday night with the Calgary Stampeders visiting the Toronto Argos.

Let’s start with CGY’s offense.  BLM is almost always a must start, if you can afford him. His numbers took a dip last week as he sat the 2nd half against Hamilton, but that 11 point performance could have easily been a 20 burger.  Even though I’m only giving him QB7 against a 3rd best TOR defense, he’s still a safe start.

Watch for Messam to get a good amount of use to control the clock in this game. Another safe start, RB3 this week.

Kamar Jordan looks to be heading to the 6-game IR. Start Marken Michel and hope he gets the looks he got last week At his salary, he’s almost a must start. He’s played two games as a receiver this week, and has a Touchdown in each. Stamps receiving core should do well but TOR is 3rd best against WRs.

Ricky Ray continues to have a good season. Four of his Six games this year scored over 22 FPTS. CGY is only 5th best against QBs, so there may be a value play here.

TOR’s backfield scores the 5th most FPTS on average, but its spread across so many different players its hard to get behind. The only TOR backfielder to score multiple 10+ FPTS game is Martese Jackson.

CGY is second best in the league agasinst WR’s but SJ Green is almost always a must start. I see him around WR3 this week. Watch Jeff Fuller and Armanti Edwards to continue to be targeted.

Friday Night Football’s first double-header will feature the Winnipeg BlueBombers in Ottawa to take on the RedBlacks.

Matt Nichols has two ugly games under his belt, but his other three games averages 27 FPTS. Ottawa gives up the 2nd most to QBs.  This looks like a good start, QB3 this week.

When is Andrew Harris not a must start? I didn’t expect so much of him last week but he lit it up in a crazy game.  I see more of a passing theme and likely not as high-scoring this week but I’ll still give him RB4, I hope to see 14 FPTS from him.

OTT gives up the third most FPTS to the WR position. Darvin Adams should continue to get looks, I have him around WR8 this week. Denmark now has TDs in his last two games. Dressler looks like he may be out for this week, as he sat practice on Monday. This makes room for a big value play in Ryan Lankford, who has been getting points on the return game already. Give him some receiving yards as a WR at his low DraftKings salary and it only makes sense. He also has double-digit FPTS in his last three games! Value Play Of The Week!

On the other side of the ball, I see Trevor Harris having a Trevor Harris kind of performance. He throws yards and TDs but also has been turning the ball over. I can get behind his Receivers more than him, especially at his salary.  Keep rolling with Ellingson (WR1) and Sinopoli (WR6) this week.

And I’m giving William Powell the RB2 rank for this week, going up against a WPG defense 2nd worst in the league against Backs. Averaging 12 FPTS in his last three games.

And the Double Header concludes with the lowly Hamilton Ti-Cats in Edmonton.

For the third week in a row I don’t think I need to say much about going up against Hamilton. Worst in the league at the QB, RB and WR positions.  Worst in the league against QBs and against WRs. 2nd worst in the league against the RB position.

Sit all your Cats, except maybe if you can get Saunders for a decent salary. Luke Tasker has yet to put up a double-digit FPTS performance in his 5 games played.  If I only give him a 10 point ceiling this week, maybe he’ll finally break out.  Kevin Elliott returns from injury, maybe that will help boost the offense a touch.

Of course this makes Mike Reilly my QB1 this week, but watch out for the same kind of situation that occurred in Calgary – maybe Reilly gets the bench if they start blowing away the miserable tabby cats.

EDM’s backfield is an injury minefield.  John White is out, Van went out last week and Kendial Lawrence is now on long-term IR. It’s a good matchup, for whoever the Eskimos start in the backfield.

Start Zylstra (WR2) and start Hazelton (WR5) this week. And there could be some value plays in Duke Williams and Cory Watson. Not 100 percent sold on Bryant Mitchell yet.

The week will conclude with the BC Lions playing host to the Sask Roughriders.

Travis Lulay went up against a best-in-the-league EDM defense last week, and still pulled out 24 FPTS. He should be able to repeat that kind of performance against a 4th best SSK D. Start him! I’m tempted to give him QB2 this week, with a very safe floor.

SSK is second best in the league against the run. But you can’t sit Jeremiah Johnson. At least one TD in every game he’s played this year and 10-18 touches per game.

BC receivers don’t have a favourable matchup. But Chris Williams is eligible to play starting this week, so watch for some much needed assistance and the field to open up. His return would likely drop Nic Moore off the starting roster.  Emmanuel Arceneaux is still too inconsistent to start at his salary – only one game so far in the double digit FTPS.

When Kevin Glenn has a good game, he gets close to 30 FPTS in a game. He’s only had one stinker, and one mediocre game.  BC gives up the third most to QBs, so this could be a decent value play I’ve picked with confidence in my own DraftKings league.

The SSK backfield has not been very Fantasy relevant, but watch Cameron Marshall as his usage seems to be increasing – 14 touches in week 5, 21 touches in week 6, double-digit FPTS both times.

And the SSK receiving core is coming off a great game against TOR. I think they can keep it rolling against a mediocre BC D – only 6th best in the league against the WR positon. Start Roosevelt (WR7) and Carter (WR10) if you can get them in your lineup. They share similar target numbers with Roosevelt leading the way.

 

I think this is the most time I’ve ever spent on a Matchup Analysis.  Hope it was worth it, leave me a comment to let me know what you think!

Good luck this week, Everyone!

 

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