Week 8: Matchup Analysis

Welcome to Week 8, Football Fans!

Let’s dive into the numbers and see what they can tell us about this week’s match-ups.

Thursday Aug 10 530 PM MDT
Edmonton Eskimos at Ottawa RedBlacks

Edmonton goes into this game scoring the MOST fantasy points at the QB position. They go up against an Ottawa Defense that gives up the 2nd most to QBs. Reilly has averaged over 31 FPTS in his last three games. He is a must start and QB1 this week.

Edmonton has the third best in the league Defense against QBs. I know Trevor Harris is due for a huge game soon, but I’m not certain this is it. He hasn’t scored over 25 FPTS all season.

Perkins looked decent in his first start for Edmonton. Overall the Eskimos on paper look terrible in the backfield, due to many injuries. But Perkins should be a decent value play for at least another week.

If healthy, William Powell is also hard to pass up based on his salary. Limit your expectations, however, as Edmonton has been solid against the run, limiting opposing RB’s to 13 FPTS per game. If Madu gets the start, not much changes.

Edmonton receivers score the 2nd most FPTS in the league. Ottawa gives up the 6th most. We’ll have to watch for the status of Brandon Zylstra’s injury. Hazelton looks like a must start, averaging 15 FPTS since Bowman went down, and Bryant Mitchell has emerged with two TDs in his three games.

Ellingson and Sinopoli will continue to be popular starts this week, despite Edmonton being the 2nd best in the league against WRs. Ellingson has double-digit FPTS in 5 of 7 games with TDs in the last 3.

Friday Aug 11 530 PM MDT
Toronto Argos at Montreal Alouettes

Ricky Ray is nursing a shoulder injury. We’ll have to watch for who gets the start. The backup in Cody Fajardo doesn’t inspire much confidence, and it’s a mediocre matchup at best – 6th best QB versus 6th best Defense against the position. I think there are better matchups to be found this week but there are those who will take a flier based on his salary alone.

Darian Durant will be rested off the bye week, but his 2nd worst in the league FPTS at the QB position goes up against Toronto’s 2nd best Defense. Avoid. Durant has thrown 5 picks in his last three games and has only scored over 20 FPTS twice this season.

Toronto’s backfield continues to be a wasteland for Fantasy owners. Whittaker, Wilder Jr, Cross and McDaniel have never seen double-digit FPTS. Martese Jackson gets his points inconsistently on punt and kick returns – feast or famine. Coombs gets in on the passing game but is too inconsistent to start.

Anyone’s guess for Sutton or Rutley to get the start in Week 8. If Sutton is a go, I like the matchup and can see him scoring as high as RB4. Slightly less optimistic about Rutley. They’ll go against Toronto’s 6th best Defense against the RB position.

Toronto receivers will be challenged against the third best D against the position. SJ Green is a must start, of course. Averaging 10 targets per game, with a floor in the double-digits. If Armanti Edwards doesn’t return this week, look for targets to go to Fuller and Paden. DeVier Posey is getting ready to come back from injury. Limit expectations if a backup QB getting the start.

Montreal sits ranked 6th in the league at the WR position. They’ll go against the 4th best D. I like the duo of Ernest Jackson and BJ Cunningham this week, both having three straight double-digit FPTS performances. Also look for Nik Lewis to continue to fill the safety valve roll for Durant.

Saturday Aug 12 530 PM MDT
Winnipeg BlueBombers at Hamilton Ti-Cats

Expect Nichols to have a fine outing against Hamilton, as most QBs have done. Hamilton is the worst in the league against QBs, giving up almost 30 FPTS per game.

One would think it crazy to start Zach Collaros. But on paper it’s not that terrible. Okay, it’s a little terrible. But look what he was able to do against Edmonton last week – 3 TDs and 23 FPTS, at his salary I’d take that all day long. However, I don’t see him consistently scoring 20 FPTS – this was his first time this season to exceed 18. Winnipeg currently sits 5th best against QBs.

Andrew Harris claims RB1 honours this week, going up against a Hamilton Defense 2nd worst against RBs, allowing over 17 FPTS per game.

Hamilton’s backfield has been a dumpster fire. CJ Gable has been getting the start lately but doesn’t have a single game over 9 FPTS. Schueurman only slightly better, with a 12 point performance but hasn’t been the feature back since Week 5. Winnipeg, however, is the WORST in the league against the backfield. An attractive matchup that I still can’t get behind.

You know the routine, load up on whoever is playing against Hamilton, worst in the league against WRs. So this week we have to start Darvin Adams, and Ryan Lankford if his salary doesn’t creep. He was our Value Play Of The Week, last week, and it paid off. I hope you were able to take advantage! And there may be some extreme value plays in Feoli-Gudino (73 rec yds in his last game) and Tyron Thorpe (averaging over 8 targets and 63 rec yds per game). I’m still waiting for the re-emergence of Clarence Denmark – when he’s on, he’s a Touchdown machine.

Hamilton receivers. Oh, Hamilton receivers. What can I possibly say. The numbers speak for themselves:
Tyms – 2.78 FPTS
Jones – 3.72 FPTS
Banks – 7.18 FPTS
Tasker – 5.70 FPTS
The lone bright spot has been Jalen Saunders, averaging 11.62 FPTS. Last week we saw Demarr Aultman get his first start which included a TD and almost 14 FPTS. Winnipeg gives up the 2nd most in the league to Receivers, so if they are going to have an emergence game, this is it.

Sunday Aug 13 600 PM MDT
BC Lions at Sask Roughriders

Kevin Glenn looked dead inside as he floundered his way to sub-5 point performance last week. He’ll get a second crack at it as the two teams go home-and-home. On paper, Glenn still has a good matchup – 4th most points at the QB position versus BC’s 3rd worst Defense. I expect a bit of a different game but am still going to temper expectations.

The other side of the ball is something to watch. Will Lulay continue to get the start or will it fall back on Jennings’ shoulders? If Lulay gets the start, he should start in your lineup as well. Over his last four games he’s averaged over 26 FPTS per game, with an incredible 20 point floor and ceiling well into the 30’s.

BC is currently the best team in the league against opposing RBs, limiting backfields to under 11 FPTS per game. Sit Cameron Marshall this week, despite his value salary. Can’t trust this matchup.

We are really going to have to watch the roster details for BC’s backfield. I can’t imagine JJohnson not starting, but last week we saw him sit the latter part of the game due to a Canadian Ratio issue. Should his carries not be vultured this week, I see JJ as a solid RB2 against a slightly worse than average SSK Defense.

Sask receivers continue to lead the way, best in the league. The rematch against BC is attractive on paper, with BC giving up the 4th most FPTS to WRs. Expect Duron Carter to continue to get targets. Roosevelt is a safe play every week. Robb Bagg’s usage is growing but he is not yet Fantasy relevant. Bakari Grant is an interesting value play, with four TDs in six games and averages double-digit FPTS.

As a core, BC’s receivers are scoring the 2nd fewest FPTS in the league. This is surprising! We saw speedster Chris Williams back in action last week. I’m projecting a ton of yards and score for him this week against an average Sask D. Bryan Burnham continues to impress and is becoming close to a safe bet. Manny Arceneaux continues to underwhelm, having scored double-digit FPTS only once this year.

 

Good luck in Week 8, everyone!

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