Week 9: Matchup Analysis

Edmonton Eskimos @ BC Lions

I expect a big day from Mike Reilly when he visits the BC Lions.  When these teams squared off in Week 3 Reilly went for over 28 FPTS.  BC is currently giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to Quarterbacks, and 3rd most Net Offense to opponents.

CJ Gable looks to be a reliable start. Again, the BC Lions are 3rd worst in this category – giving up FPTS to backfields.  Jordan Robinson only got in one practice this week, so CJ may be in line for a full workload.  The 3rd most rushing yards and tied for the the most rushing Touchdowns are currently scored against this BC Lions defense.

And when Mike Reilly gets going his receivers benefit. Edmonton is averaging over 7 yards per play this season.  Last week they went up against a competent Sask defense which kept Duke in check.  Look for him to bounce back. BC is currently the 4th worst in the league surrendering FPTS to wide outs.

At Travis Lulay’s current salary, it’s hard not to make this start.  He hasn’t shown us a very high ceiling so far this year but this could be the opportunity.  Edmonton is middle of the road against QBs, but if you expect this one to become high scoring like I do, there should be plenty of opportunity for a Lulay breakout game.  Only Montreal has given up more big plays ( 30+ yards ) than Edmonton has.

There is some uncertainty in the BC backfield at the moment.  Which is too bad because you definitely want to start an RB against Edmonton. The Esks are the worst against opponent backfields, surrendering almost 30 FPTS per game.  Opponents have the 3rd most Rushing Attempts against Edmonton, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, which makes Edmonton 2nd last in that category.  JJohnson appears to be doubtful for this week, putting the duties in the hands of Travon Van and Chris Rainey. We’ll have to see how the depth chart looks when it is released. Van could be your value play of the week. *EDIT JJohnson is out. Van is a go and Rainey assumes special teams return duty.

Edmonton is fairly decent against opponent wide outs, but in this shootout game I expect the likes of Manny Arceneaux and Bryan Burnham to do well.  Since Lulay has been starting, Manny has averaged almost 16 FPTS per game. Burnham is trending upwards as well, averaging 12.  *EDIT I no longer like a Kevin Elliott sleeper play here, as Shaq Johnson takes the field WR position and Elliott slots in behind Manny.

Hamilton Ti-Cats @ Winnipeg BlueBombers

This Hamilton team doesn’t look like the same team they were a handful of weeks ago.  Masoli put up a big one against Montreal last week, as he should have, but his previous three weeks he’s only averaged 12FPTS per game, including an absolute stinker against Saskatchewan in week 6. Winnipeg is actually decent against opposing QBs, only giving up less than 15 FPTS on average.  At Masoli’s salary, I’m recommending you look elsewhere for your pivot position this week.

Alex Green has returned from IR and gave us almost 20 FPTS against Montreal last week. I expect a decent outing for him again against a Winnipeg Defense giving up the 2nd most FPTS to backfields.  Last time these teams met it was Timmis who rumbled in 2 TDs and Thomas-Erlington put up over 90 rush yards. Winnipeg has allowed the 3rd most rushing touchdowns on the season to date.

And how do we even sort out Hamilton’s receivers.  They have so many weapons – Banks, Saunders, Tasker, Toliver, Williams. In that order would be my preference this week against a Winnipeg secondary that has allowed the most pass attempts and pass completions in the league. Saunders’ salary has climbed quickly on the back of two 150+ yards receiving in his last two games.

It’s hard to get a read on Matt Nichols.  So far this season he has only played twice against BC, and twice against Toronto.  That doesn’t provide for as much data to work with as other QBs in the league.  Let’s focus on the matchup. Because it looks like it could be a tough one:

Hamilton currently only gives up the 3rd fewest FPTS to QBs.  2nd fewest passing yards. The fewest passing attempts and the fewest pass completions.  QBs facing Hamilton average a passer rating of only 59.0 ( 3rd worst) and a pass efficiency rating of 76.7 ( again, 3rd worst ).  I want to go Matt Nichols this week but the numbers just don’t support it.

Andrew Harris, on the other hand, should ball. I don’t think we need to go too far into Andrew’s stats, he speaks for himself.  He has not had a single digit FPTS performance this year. He is atop the RB standing by almost a full 30 FPTS. And Hamilton appears to stink against RBs.  Actually 3rd best surrendering FPTS to backs, however they give up the most rush yards per game, averaging over 156, over 6.2 yards per rush attempt. Yikes.

I’ve been staring at the data for Dressler, Adams and Demski, and just can’t wrap my head around it. Demski had a huge game last week slightly inflating his stats. I’m not sure that’s the type of performance we can expect from him every week. Adams gave us a stinker on his last outing but previous to that was averaging 14.5 FPTS in 5 of his last 6. Dressler is seeing 6 targets per game, but lack of major scores is keeping him flying under the radar.  As mentioned previously, Hamilton is pretty good against the pass, 2nd best in the league limiting FPTS to wide outs.

Montreal Alouettes @ Ottawa RedBlacks

So what’s the over/under on Johnny’s interceptions this week?  I really hope he can put together a decent game, but it’s still Montreal, they’ll still be awful, and you’re still not starting anyone on this team.

Except maybe Tyrell Sutton? He didn’t give us much last week, but averages 15 FPTS in 5 of his last 6 games. I’ve actually got a flier out there on William Stanback, who has two double-digit FPTS games in a row, on the back of his Kick Returns  ( watch for the status of Stef Logan ). Ottawa is currently 4th best giving up few FPTS to backfields. And 2nd best limiting average yards on the ground per game.

BJ Cunningham is the best wide out option for Montreal, but still averages less than 10 FPTS per game. No room for you on my roster.

Now’s it’s Ottawa’s turn to beat on the lowly Alouettes. Trevor Harris faced Montreal in week 4, and gave us over 25 FPTS.  I expect him to have his way again. If you take out Trevor’s two games against Calgary, he’s averaging just under 20 FPTS per game. Montreal gives up the most FPTS to QBs.

QBs facing Montreal average a QB passer rating of 98.0 and a passing efficiency rating over 110.

And the matchup makes William Powell a must start. He’s averaging 18.5 FPTS in 5 of his last 7 games and is more involved in the passing game. Montreal surrenders the 2nd most rushing yards to opponents, and the most rushing attempts.

Sinopoli is in your lineup. Spencer should be in your lineup. Ellingson appears to be slumping hard.  If he doesn’t bounce back in this game, I’m dead serious, I will be personally dropping him in one of my season-long leagues. In his last five games the best he’s done is 49 receiving yards and 9.9 FPTS.  Not the Greg Ellingson we all know and love.  My sleeper pick for some salary relief in this game is RJ Harris, 5 targets in each of his last three games.

Montreal gives up the most passing yards per game, 3rd most passing attempts, 2nd most passing completions, 2nd longest average per completion, and the most 30+ yard plays in the league.

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